The UK is likely to ban large gatherings soon. How much sense does that make? My current instinct is that it is a sensible thing to do, but that on its own it won't have that much effect. I'll explain my reasons, but as always I could easily have overlooked something, 1/
so I welcome feedback.
The basic reason is that even at a huge gathering such as a football match, each infected person is likely to infect only a small number of others on average -- namely those sitting very close by (and not definitely even those). 2/
The basic reason is that even at a huge gathering such as a football match, each infected person is likely to infect only a small number of others on average -- namely those sitting very close by (and not definitely even those). 2/
Let's compare that with a meeting where 20 people are sitting in a room together. There again, each infected person is likely to infect only a small number of others, though perhaps more as the virus-containing droplets will probably stick around more. 3/
And I would guess that the number of people attending such meetings over the course of a week is a lot larger than the number of people going to football matches.
In schools where pupils sit next to a number of different people during the day, the opportunities 4/
In schools where pupils sit next to a number of different people during the day, the opportunities 4/
for infection are even greater, though that may be compensated for to some extent if (as seems possible, but I think the jury is still out) children are not just less likely to have severe symptoms from Covid19 but less likely to catch it in the first place. 5/
The general point I'm making here is that the impact of a gathering-banning policy will be roughly proportional to the number of people who are stopped going to gatherings multiplied by the average number of people an infected person at such a gathering will in turn infect. 6/
And since on average people don't spend much of their time at large gatherings, and at most large gatherings the average number of people you will infect isn't (as far as I know) significantly larger than at a typical small gathering, and may even be smaller, 7/
the banning of large gatherings, though it makes a contribution, should not be expected to have much of an effect on the growth of the number of cases.
If this is right, then the conclusion I personally draw is that we shouldn't be reassured by ... 8/
If this is right, then the conclusion I personally draw is that we shouldn't be reassured by ... 8/
the banning of large gatherings. What really matters is to introduce, as quickly as possible, changes to our ways of interacting that will reduce the average number of people each infected person infects to well below 1. And these changes will have to be much more profound 9/
than stopping going to football matches, concerts etc. 10/10
