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THREAD: 1/ It's crunch time: either the government levels with the British people about its no-shutdown strategy over #Covid_19 or makes a radical change. PHE leak shows that, despite Hancock disavowing “herd immunity” that’s what is guiding the response… the result?👇...
2/ UK is currently breaching WHO advice on three of four measures: no quarantine, no mass testing, and social distancing is being done haphazardly. This is a political decision and those responsible have to explain and defend it…
3/ Meanwhile the Fed’s rate cut, and liquidity boosting measures, though in the long-term not enough, provide HM Treasury and the BoE now with some more ammunition than Sunak had last week... let's use it...
4/ We need a massive fiscal stimulus targeted at allowing workers, companies and public services to survive this crisis. Airlines will have to be part-nationalised; a wartime-style retooling to produce ventilators, testing kits and (eventually) vaccine shots…
5/ And if more QE is coming in the UK (it should), this time it has to be done right. That means targeting the assets to what will sustain vital services and prevent corporate collapse. Issue debt and monetise it...
6/ Japanisation of most Western economies looks inevitable - ie no growth, zero interest - so we need fiscal and monetary radicalism plus clear state-direction of the private sector...
7/ @lisanandy says we need a UK Marshall Plan - a better analogy would be FDR’s 1941/42 budgets: massive mobilisation and reallocation of both capital and labour to a multi-year project, led by the state... Table shows % of GDP allocated to wartime finance...
8/ I doubt the nationalist neoliberals in Downing Street and the White House can cope with this. In the first 2 months of #Covid_19 they have looked more like Chamberlain/Daladier than Churchill/FDR.
9/ In the short term the labour movement needs to fight for: a) universal sick pay b) universal and instant access to out of work benefits c) massive cash support for social care sector d) nationalise large companies that need bailouts e) emergency fiscal/monetary stimulus...
10/10 Capitalism can, of course, survive an epidemic - but a highly financialised form of capitalism, where securitised income, high debt and an unregulated shadow banking system amplify the impact of the demand slump? Maybe not. Here's Samuel K. Cohn on feudalism post 1345...
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