Quarantine and social distancing measures can work. New study in Science suggests undocumented cases were major driver of spread, but strict restrictions reduced the R0 from ~2.38 to ~0.99. science.sciencemag.org/content/early/… 1/3
Testing and increased awareness also matters. In China the time between initial infectiousness to confirmation likely decreased from 10 days to 6 days between early January and late January/early February. 2/3
The main findings were that "86% of infections went undocumented and that, per person, these undocumented infections were 55% as contagious as documented infections, could shift in other countries with different control, surveillance and reporting practices." 3/3
