Thread on #coronavirus, science, expertise and public policy making. The level of the debate on this is abysmal. 1/12
In order to arrive at a policy response (in this and many other areas), the Govt has to weigh a range of different considerations. It relies, in part, on the advice of epidemiologists, public health experts, behavioural scientists and many more. 2/12
It has to rely on scientific knowledge of how the virus operates: how it is spread, how far it will spread, whether it may mutate, what consequences it has for different people. Understanding of the virus is developing quickly. Theories re 'herd immunity' are contested. 3/12
It also has to rely on insights from public health. It has to make plans within certain constraints - how quickly can people be tested; how much capacity is there in the NHS; how far can priorities be rearranged? 4/12
The clear public health message is that we should be doing what we can to 'flatten the curve', to ease the pressure on the NHS and social care systems. That seems to be uncontroversial, and as Lombardy is showing, urgent. 5/12
Then we get to the ways to seek to 'flatten the curve' and slow the rate of infection. Handwashing helps. Isolating those who may have the virus helps. 6/12
There is a debate about whether more extreme social distancing measures would help, with the UK and other countries taking notably different decisions. There are many strands to the disagreements I have seen. 7/12
Some say that social distancing measures will not work well because the virus won't be transmitted in schools, football matches etc. Others say that they won't work well because people will not abide by the Govt's instructions. 8/12
Others still argue that social distancing measures might work (at least to a small extent), but that the economic and social cost of imposing them is simply too high. If schools, shops etc shut for months on end, there will be stark consequences. 9/12
Here you have behavioural science, often colliding in uncomfortable ways with broad economic and social considerations. I am not convinced by what I've been hearing so far on this. 10/12
Many have been calling for greater transparency from the Govt, especially as it seems to be an outlier in terms of the international response. Too often the response has simply been: don't criticise, we are led by the science, and isn't the CMO impressive. 11/12
I would like to think that we can do better than that. 12/12
