Byrne Hobart is one of the most interesting & wide-ranging writers out there right now
Here's a thread of some of his ideas on globalization, financial bubbles, social capital & more
His old work here: medium.com/@byrnehobart
Sign up for new work here: diff.substack.com
Here's a thread of some of his ideas on globalization, financial bubbles, social capital & more
His old work here: medium.com/@byrnehobart
Sign up for new work here: diff.substack.com
A lot of productivity growth is historically contingent.
For Manhattan project to happen, you needed:
- U.S. out the war but still paranoid about it
- European intellectuals fleeing Europe for U.S.
- People to realize this was important and could be done.
Hard to plan for.
For Manhattan project to happen, you needed:
- U.S. out the war but still paranoid about it
- European intellectuals fleeing Europe for U.S.
- People to realize this was important and could be done.
Hard to plan for.
Globalization is both a compliment and substitute for Productivity growth.
Compliment: Economies of scale. Important for any good w/ high fixed cost and low marginal cost (software)
Substitute: Opportunity cost for innovating vs copying what's already worked elsewhere goes up
Compliment: Economies of scale. Important for any good w/ high fixed cost and low marginal cost (software)
Substitute: Opportunity cost for innovating vs copying what's already worked elsewhere goes up
Globalization w/o tech breakthrough makes sense on a micro level but breaks down on macro level.
If you look at US cars per capita and extrapolate to India, that can work for India. But if you extrapolate everywhere, oil will cost $300 a barrel and we'll have a global depression
If you look at US cars per capita and extrapolate to India, that can work for India. But if you extrapolate everywhere, oil will cost $300 a barrel and we'll have a global depression
The future effects of technology are hard to predict:
When the transistor came out, people thought they'd be good for hearing aids.
When the transistor came out, people thought they'd be good for hearing aids.
Why has science slowed?
Many scientists had their breakthroughs in 20s.
The more advanced the state of the art is in any given field, the more of your time you have to spend just getting caught up—& thus you miss being able to contribute in what some ppl call your peak years.
Many scientists had their breakthroughs in 20s.
The more advanced the state of the art is in any given field, the more of your time you have to spend just getting caught up—& thus you miss being able to contribute in what some ppl call your peak years.
As population skews older, you have fewer people in the workforce and more people needing healthcare.
Older people are also more likely to vote (2 to 1), so politicians cater to their needs.
Older people are also more likely to vote (2 to 1), so politicians cater to their needs.
US deficit in oil production was basically tying the global economy together.
Had to keep Middle East stable, which meant had to keep everyone else stable too. US dependency on Middle East for oil was an implicit subsidy for the East Asian export driven economic success stories.
Had to keep Middle East stable, which meant had to keep everyone else stable too. US dependency on Middle East for oil was an implicit subsidy for the East Asian export driven economic success stories.
Now that we are energy independent, doesn't make sense for us to intervene as much for oil.
But intervening might make sense to ensure the world is on our currency system, in our supply chains and in our cultural sphere.
War for oil was never popular. War for P&G even less.
But intervening might make sense to ensure the world is on our currency system, in our supply chains and in our cultural sphere.
War for oil was never popular. War for P&G even less.
What can we learn from east asian miracles?
U.S. shouldn't copy blindly everything that they do anymore than they copied everything the U.S. did.
But they do prove state directed model can work, if competent.
Lesson: Make it high status to be in gov't so great ppl go there.
U.S. shouldn't copy blindly everything that they do anymore than they copied everything the U.S. did.
But they do prove state directed model can work, if competent.
Lesson: Make it high status to be in gov't so great ppl go there.
Quoting someone else:
"There's only one thing worse than working than living under incompetent & corrupt gov't. And that's living under an incompetent & thoroughly honest gov't b/c at least in the 1st scenario, you can pay someone to let you do what you need to do."
"There's only one thing worse than working than living under incompetent & corrupt gov't. And that's living under an incompetent & thoroughly honest gov't b/c at least in the 1st scenario, you can pay someone to let you do what you need to do."
One reason why trade deficit doesn't matter as much:
Since U.S. is a great place to invest in b/c of human capital, Maybe U.S. should be running a deficit because it's still the best place to put money, whether it's safe money in treasuries or risk capital in startups.
Since U.S. is a great place to invest in b/c of human capital, Maybe U.S. should be running a deficit because it's still the best place to put money, whether it's safe money in treasuries or risk capital in startups.
China might be vulnerable:
CCP derives political legitimacy from the fact that the economy is growing
When U.S. struggles, they switch the president, but don't question democracy
If China had their own 2008, unclear it'd be the same. Propaganda campaign underway to make it so
CCP derives political legitimacy from the fact that the economy is growing
When U.S. struggles, they switch the president, but don't question democracy
If China had their own 2008, unclear it'd be the same. Propaganda campaign underway to make it so
Mental model of Trump:
Despite many flaws, he's good at evaluating (& memeifying) the weakness of others.
In real estate, he didn't buy a good area and improve it, he buys a disaster area & makes sure lenders are more scared of him defaulting than he is.
It's a strategy.
Despite many flaws, he's good at evaluating (& memeifying) the weakness of others.
In real estate, he didn't buy a good area and improve it, he buys a disaster area & makes sure lenders are more scared of him defaulting than he is.
It's a strategy.
Charter Cities:
Geography, demographics, resources, & culture matter.
Don't try to build these top down systems that can apply everywhere, instead adapt to local circumstances.
You can't just say if this country had U.S. institutions, it'd have U.S. GDP per capita.
Geography, demographics, resources, & culture matter.
Don't try to build these top down systems that can apply everywhere, instead adapt to local circumstances.
You can't just say if this country had U.S. institutions, it'd have U.S. GDP per capita.
Charter Cities:
Unlike startups, you have to worry that incumbents will literally kill you if you threaten them.
Your best case scenario is the Bin Laden option where you have this extremely depressing life where you're waiting to get killed—& then you get killed. Be careful.
Unlike startups, you have to worry that incumbents will literally kill you if you threaten them.
Your best case scenario is the Bin Laden option where you have this extremely depressing life where you're waiting to get killed—& then you get killed. Be careful.
Anti-tech in some sense is bi-partisan.
Left says we're concerned that people might not be getting ideas from approved sources.
Right says we're don't like these techies doing drugs at Burning Man.
Both worry about 7 yr olds w/ smart phone addictions.
(Caricatures of views)
Left says we're concerned that people might not be getting ideas from approved sources.
Right says we're don't like these techies doing drugs at Burning Man.
Both worry about 7 yr olds w/ smart phone addictions.
(Caricatures of views)
Response to tech-lash?
Companies get less ambitious.
Microsoft got less ambitious after anti-trust, which is partly why it missed mobile but also is least threatening of all tech giants.
The monopolies always pretend to not be monopolies.
Companies get less ambitious.
Microsoft got less ambitious after anti-trust, which is partly why it missed mobile but also is least threatening of all tech giants.
The monopolies always pretend to not be monopolies.
Malthus was actually correct that higher crop yields did lead to faster birth rates.
What he didn't foresee was that the shift from manual labor to producing food led to longer career investment & thus people delaying getting married until they're older (& thus having less kids)
What he didn't foresee was that the shift from manual labor to producing food led to longer career investment & thus people delaying getting married until they're older (& thus having less kids)
Progressives & Conservatives are confused.
Progressives have adopted conservative puritan view that man is intrinsically sinful & should subvert himself to the not sinful.
Conservatives have adopted progressive view that good institutions can change ppl (e.g democracy in Iraq).
Progressives have adopted conservative puritan view that man is intrinsically sinful & should subvert himself to the not sinful.
Conservatives have adopted progressive view that good institutions can change ppl (e.g democracy in Iraq).
Progress studies itself is fundamentally agnostic.
Just focused on increasing productivity, rather than asking who wins, who loses.
It's anti-partisan in the sense that partisanship tends to arise when we become less productive, that's when politics becomes more zero sum.
Just focused on increasing productivity, rather than asking who wins, who loses.
It's anti-partisan in the sense that partisanship tends to arise when we become less productive, that's when politics becomes more zero sum.
Why we're polarized (besides slow growth)
Internet means more news outlets that appeal to niche interests.
Social media means it's easy to get the propaganda you want.
You can choose media outlets that are going to outrage you in the precise way you want to be outraged.
Internet means more news outlets that appeal to niche interests.
Social media means it's easy to get the propaganda you want.
You can choose media outlets that are going to outrage you in the precise way you want to be outraged.
Peak California:
Housing shortage means rents go up in line w/ cash comp, not equity comp, & that means that incumbents have a recruiting advantage over startups.
In other words, high real estate selects against early stage companies & selects for later stage companies.
Housing shortage means rents go up in line w/ cash comp, not equity comp, & that means that incumbents have a recruiting advantage over startups.
In other words, high real estate selects against early stage companies & selects for later stage companies.
Stanford boiled down is an acceptance letter, a network, and a job fair at the end.
YC realized you could do this in 3 months instead of 4 years—and that equity was a better business model.
Like Stanford, the more it succeeds, the more it becomes a monoculture.
YC realized you could do this in 3 months instead of 4 years—and that equity was a better business model.
Like Stanford, the more it succeeds, the more it becomes a monoculture.
What Pinker gets wrong:
The distribution of extreme violence is such that the trailing mean is always lower than the the actual underlying mean.
He's correct about what a linear extrapolation from the historic data tells you, but wrong about the nature of that distribution.
The distribution of extreme violence is such that the trailing mean is always lower than the the actual underlying mean.
He's correct about what a linear extrapolation from the historic data tells you, but wrong about the nature of that distribution.
Darwinian case for monogamy:
Increases the chances that you'll be loyal to each other & dedicated to their kids—who are then more likely to do the same for their kids.
Counter argument is that a lot of artistic and intellectual achievement doesn't come from normie families
Increases the chances that you'll be loyal to each other & dedicated to their kids—who are then more likely to do the same for their kids.
Counter argument is that a lot of artistic and intellectual achievement doesn't come from normie families
Austrian economics:
Boom & bust cycles don't just happen in gov't, but also in private business.
They tend to predict bubbles too early and that's why you'll tend to make more money betting on the bubble & going along for the ride
Boom & bust cycles don't just happen in gov't, but also in private business.
They tend to predict bubbles too early and that's why you'll tend to make more money betting on the bubble & going along for the ride
Lessons from Alan Greenspan:
If you want to positively impact the world, you can either have great ideas or do whatever it takes to implement them.
Someone has to do the latter, dirty work. What's the point of having brilliant theorists whose theories never get implemented?
If you want to positively impact the world, you can either have great ideas or do whatever it takes to implement them.
Someone has to do the latter, dirty work. What's the point of having brilliant theorists whose theories never get implemented?
Ideal education:
Kids should find a topic they're passionate about, dive into it in as much depth as possible, just nerd out to the maximum extent possible, & then find something else wants once they've either reached the limit of their abilities or their interest has waned
Kids should find a topic they're passionate about, dive into it in as much depth as possible, just nerd out to the maximum extent possible, & then find something else wants once they've either reached the limit of their abilities or their interest has waned
Online filter bubbles are bad, but real world filter bubbles can be good.
They can be safe spaces for people who have heretical ideas to mold them until they're ready to be shared.
Safe spaces for people who don't want to be merely mimetic.
They can be safe spaces for people who have heretical ideas to mold them until they're ready to be shared.
Safe spaces for people who don't want to be merely mimetic.
Equality
Wealth gets more unequal, but consumption gets more equal (which is why the gap btw a billionaire's life and our lives is smaller than it used to be).
Overtime, wealthy end up w/ larger share of country's resources, until a war or plague and that all gets wiped out.
Wealth gets more unequal, but consumption gets more equal (which is why the gap btw a billionaire's life and our lives is smaller than it used to be).
Overtime, wealthy end up w/ larger share of country's resources, until a war or plague and that all gets wiped out.
Role of gov't & wall street:
Coordinate behavior at scale to pursue a distant objective.
They both coordinate a lot of behavior that is optimal when it happens in parallel, but not that useful if it happens in sequence. (E.g Apollo)
Coordinate behavior at scale to pursue a distant objective.
They both coordinate a lot of behavior that is optimal when it happens in parallel, but not that useful if it happens in sequence. (E.g Apollo)
Bubbles happen when some people say the price is too high, others are saying no it’s early ppl will make so much money (e.g internet bubble dot com optimists were actually right).
But the ones who got optimistic at the wrong time lost a lot of money.
But the ones who got optimistic at the wrong time lost a lot of money.
Equity bubble—The future will be very different from the present & you want to own equity in that future. We all try to be different
Credit bubble—future will look exactly like the past only more. Ppl who owe us money will continue to service the debt. We all try to be the same
Credit bubble—future will look exactly like the past only more. Ppl who owe us money will continue to service the debt. We all try to be the same
Nepotism is a credit market for reputation rather than cash.
Like financial banks, there are social capital "banks" willing to lend social capital to ppl who don't need it and not willing to risk social capital on new & risky people
Need to incentivize social capital investing
Like financial banks, there are social capital "banks" willing to lend social capital to ppl who don't need it and not willing to risk social capital on new & risky people
Need to incentivize social capital investing
Social capital bubbles:
If there are just more people willing to vouch for more people, then you end up with too many bad ideas getting funded.
And you also end up with people optimizing for getting recommended versus optimizing for building something good
If there are just more people willing to vouch for more people, then you end up with too many bad ideas getting funded.
And you also end up with people optimizing for getting recommended versus optimizing for building something good
Social capital isn't like the economy where you can tinker w/ interest rates & inflation.
So in that sense of status market is maybe analogous to the gold standard where there can be inflation and deflation and they're actually somewhat exoticness to the system
So in that sense of status market is maybe analogous to the gold standard where there can be inflation and deflation and they're actually somewhat exoticness to the system
My conversations w/ @ByrneHobart here:
stitcher.com/podcast/villag…
stitcher.com/podcast/villag…
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stitcher.com/podcast/villag…
stitcher.com/podcast/villag…
Sign up here to read more. Just as good as Stratechery IMO: diff.substack.com
