Thread by @trengriffin

1/ “Charlie and I focus on what's knowable and important. Now, interest rates are important, but we don't think they're knowable. My circle of competence doesn't include the ability to predict interest rates a day from now, a year from now, or in 5 years." finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-bu…

"Can I function without knowing [what interest rates will be]? It's the same way as predicting what business is going to do, what the stock market's going to do. I can't do any of those things. But that doesn't mean I can't do well investing over time.” Warren Buffett

3/ “Negative rates reduce a hurdle rate. That's why they like to decrease it. It pushes asset values higher.”

Do negative rates scare you, Warren?

“They puzzle me. But they don't scare me.”

For Buffett the hurdle rate isn't the discount rate. Margin of safety = risk mitigation

4/ Warren Buffett about uncertainty and ignorance:

"Is the box that says 'knowns and important", 'knowable and important" Is there anything in that box. Can you tell what is in that box and what isn't in that box?"

Circle of competence!

He plays bridge with R. Zeckhauser

5/ You want to watch the actual interview with Buffett? Why didn't you say so?

Buffett: "If we knew the answer, it wouldn't be the most important question." finance.yahoo.com/video/exclusiv…

6/ What? You have not read Richard Zeckhauser on the differences between risk, uncertainty and ignorance at a time like this? Seriously? You owe it to yourself to read it.

The link to Zeckhauser's paper and other resources is in the end notes here: 25iq.com/2018/09/08/ris…