Thread by @EdanYago

Analysis of the evidence shows that #Corona pandemic could be over faster than most people expect.

Short Thread. 👇

First, different countries, employing very different strategies, are seeing similar reductions in R0 over time.

Second, the best control group we had - the Diamond Princess topped out with 712 out of the 3,711 crew and passengers infected (20%) and a fatality rate of 0.002% (7 in total).

Iceland, with the most extensive testing in the world, confirms that >80% of cases are asymptomatic or mild.
buzzfeed.com/albertonardell…

And in another unusual "experiment", NBA testing hints that the number of Americans who have been infected might be huge - but very few will show symptoms.
threadreaderapp.com/thread/1240041…

So what is going on here? It's possible to interpret these data as showing:

1. We may be massively under-measuring global exposure and infection rates
2. Most are asymptomatic
3. Herd immunity is already greater than we imagine

Most current testing (PCR) will only detect *active* cases. The actual number of infected may be as much as 3X higher.

If this is true, then it implies 2 things:

1. The exponential curves begin to saturate quite soon
2. The massive interventions of China and other countries deserve less credit than they are getting.