1/ Some thoughts on UK #CoronavirusPandemic spread, and the likely effectiveness of UK govt measures, through some comparisons with the Italian case - thread
2/ The number of cases in the UK (pop 65.64 m) on 20 March was 3,983. Italy (pop 60.6 m) reached 3,916 cases on 6 March.
3/UK closed schools (and pubs etc.) on 20 March, Italy closed schools on 5 March (3,276 cases). This suggests UK is about 14 days behind Italy, and school closures were enforced about same time.
4/ Italy then enforced a total lockdown 5 days later on 10 March (8,514 cases). If UK follows suit it means a UK lockdown on or near 25 March.
5/ But let’s also look at the sub-national comparisons, since Italy has apparently stood out for having a very localised concentration of coronarvirus in Lombardy.
6/ Pop of Lombardy is 10 million so 16% of Italy’s population. On 20 March there were 47,021 cases overall in Italy, and of these 22,264 in Lombardy, so 47.3%.
7/ In the UK the region with the largest number of cases is London (pop. 8.6m) with 1,588 cases of a total of 3,983. So, a region with 13% of the population has 39.8% of cases.
8/ So, the degree of concentration between the two countries is not so different. But now look at historical trajectories of the two sub-national cases.
9/ London has 1,588 cases. Lombardy reached 1,660 cases on 14 March – which suggests that London is probably only 6 days behind. Why? Because in Lombardy the rate of increase against the rate of the country overall has accelerated...
10/ On 14 March there were 17,750 cases in Italy overall, so Lombardy (with 1,660 cases) was only 9.3% of total cases at that point. Now it is 47.3%
11/ Yet, London is already at 39.8% because total numbers elsewhere in UK are smaller than Italy on the same (sub-national) time scale (3,276 v 17,750).
12/ In other words, the concentration of cases in one locality is, on the sub-national timeline, much higher in the UK than it was at the same sort of time in Italy.
13/ And will the cases in London continue at current rate of acceleration or go even faster than rest of UK? Esp in view of higher density of population in London compared with Lombardy?
14/ The worry is that, while, in terms of actions taken by the UK govt re: social distancing etc., it is still just about in line with Italy ….
15/ Italy is not a model one would want to follow! The Italian health system is, in Lombardy, and neighbouring regions overwhelmed. And UK strategy, since 16 March at least, offers nothing different to what Italy has been doing, and notably nothing different for London
16/ It suggests that, knowing what was going on in Italy, a strategy based on lockdown in the UK should have been enforced much earlier
17/ But, despite claims by UK govt that it has been about ‘the right measures at the right time’, this doesn’t appear to have been the UK strategy up until 16 March.
18/ Final (sobering) thought about lockdowns imposed by nation-states: they apply to the nation as a whole irrespective of numbers in different regions, so…
19/ Today, London has more positive cases of coronavirus than 14 of the 20 Italian regions, all of which have been in lockdown since 10 March…
20/ A virus doesn't recognise national borders. Those fighting it shouldn't either. END
