,
14 tweets,
3 min read
Read on Twitter
A few thoughts/thread on Italian govt crisis: 1/ Salvini's decision to pull plug on govt is first time in history of Republic that a party of the majority has presented motion of no confidence in its own PM.
2/ Usually, Italian govts fall because of crises outside parliament. In this case, if passed and elections follow, this will be the shortest legislature (election to election) since the Republic was founded. By a long way: govt has lasted only just over 14 months
3/ At same time, Salvini's action not surprising, in view of recent high poll ratings for League (giving him optimism) and further revelations about Russian money links to League (which have angered him). And relations with 5 Star Movement have been strained for some time
4/ The 'giallo-verde' ('yellow-green') coalition was inherently unstable from the get-go. Despite both being popularly dubbed 'populist', League & 5 Star are v. different, thrown together by 2018 hung parliament, one leader of largest coalition, the other the largest party
5/ Five Star has anti-establishment credo, support from left & right, and mainly from south. League has been transformed from northern separatist party into a 'sovranista' (reclaiming national sovereignty) party of the far right.
6/ Salvini's concern in the last 14 months has been less about government than politics - using the League's position in government to widen and strengthen its electoral base with far-right govt in its sights. This has meant uncompromising stances..
7/ Either Salvini gets his way for extreme policies that suit his party's profile (e.g. law increasing fines to million euro for ships bringing migrants into Italian ports) or he doesn't and he uses it to bemoan the 'blocking' of the League by 5 Star ministers
8/ Having a non-party based PM, Giuseppe Conte, with the two party leaders as deputies has sapped PM's authority and allowed Salvini to run his campaign from within govt. 5 Star, organisationally weak & with inexperienced leadership, have been largely at a loss how to respond.
9/ It has paid dividends for Salvini. In Euro elections League became largest party. And poll ratings on national voting intentions (League: 37.5%; 5 Star: 17%) show a complete reversal on 2018 election (League: 17%; 5 Star: 32%)
10/ Yet calling on Conte to resign and for elections is not unproblematic. Conte refusing to resign until formal vote of confidence in parliament where he wants Salvini to explain to Italians why. Conte knows that parties that bring down govts usually not popular with voters
11/ And President Mattarella is likely to explore other options first, such as 'technical' govt with limited mandate. Why? Because earliest realistic election date is 27 October, but that misses critical budgetary deadlines for Italy's perilous finances.
12/ Italian govt must present revised budget projections to Commission by 15 Oct, and budget must be approved by 31 Dec. If not, then 'safeguard clause' agreed with EU kicks in to ensure deficit targets are met in 2020. This means significant hikes in VAT from 1 Jan for Italians
13/ Only way of avoiding 'safeguard clause' is for govt to find cuts to public expenditure and/or alternative income generating sources to make up for Eur 23 billion shortfall. And that will require ... a sitting government
14/ So Salvini could find himself either a target for bringing about yet another election ('placing party above national interest'), or squeezed out of power by a techinical govt trying to clear up the economic mess created by its predecessor. END
