Here is one of the biggest mistakes people make thinking about corona. According to public information, first case of corona in China was November 17. That means they got infected, round numbers November 1-10. Let's talk it one step further. What is the probability 1/n
first publicly recorded case in China is the first case? We would have to say very close to zero. If the first publicly recorded case is the first actual case that would just as a matter of medical practice in China (and TBF other even developed countries) be very unlikely 2/n
Second factor is this would imply, assume doctors caught it right away, some type of "event" such as a bat/pangolin transmission or lab release by contaminated personnel studying these viruses. We have to assign these both as relatively unlikely scenarios. These leaves 3/n
One higher probability scenario in that the virus has been circulating for much longer in China and making its way abroad for far longer. I think the evidence increasingly fits the idea this is much more wide spread than is currently acknowledged.
