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Thread: For @ThePrintIndia I looked at the current rate of growth of confirmed COVID-19 cases in India and estimates by others. In most scenarios it is looking like India will hit 1 mn *confirmed* cases in May - and the fatality rate is broadly over 3% theprint.in/opinion/curren…
Here's a simple extension of the 5-6 day doubling rate, and here is a detailed projection by a team of bio-statisticians.
The accuracy of health infrastructure data is poor; broadly some time in May we will run out of hospital beds. States with poor capacity will be hit harder and faster. Projections about ICU beds and ventilators are even muddier - but it's safe to say the crisis is coming fast
This thing is coming at us so fast and we are starting from such a position of disadvantage with creaky infrastructure, that there isn't just one thing we can do now. Of course we need to try to slow the spread, but we need to ramp up infra literally at a war footing.
All of that in my piece today here: theprint.in/opinion/curren…
Additional points made by others:
- @avstmd writes about the critical care expertise needed scroll.in/pulse/956930/e…
- @RemaNagarajan, @AarefaJohari and @VidyaKrishnan are exposing the rot in procuring essential medical supplies
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Rukmini S
@Rukmini
Should we be confident of the official statistics on coronavirus cases and deaths in India? Unfortunately - no. Thread:
Just 77% of deaths in India are registered, and just 22% of these were medically certified. That's....shockingly few.
Doctors are more likely to get the cause of death wrong than right and this was truly shocking to me. (Many similar studies)
Read 5 tweets
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Rukmini S
@Rukmini
Thread: With the Indian state, there are always two things going on - mala fide behaviour and incompetence/ lack of capacity. There's good reason to fear that the NPR will suffer from both. The bad intent is on clear display. The lack of capacity we know of from the Census.
In 2011, the Census missed 23 people for every 1,000 it counted. And this is its own estimation. In comparison, the US Census overcounted 0.001 person for every 1,000 persons it counted. We missed 28 million people in all.
This was no better than the 2001 Census, i.e. there was no improvement in omission rates between the two Census. We have poor granular data on omissions (unlike the US which knows it undercounted racial minorities and overcounted white people), but here's what we know:
Read 6 tweets
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Rukmini S
@Rukmini
With population control back in the news, an important dimension to consider: smaller families in India have fewer girls livemint.com/news/india/pop…
Data on fertility, birth order and sex shows that as Indians choose to have smaller families, they are doing one of two things, or both: stopping having more kids after they have a boy, and/ or ensuring through pre-natal sex selection that they have a boy.
When state persuasion/ coercion comes into the picture, this gets exacerbated. Laws restricting electoral eligibility at the local body to those with two or fewer children lowered fertility but also worsened the sex ratio. Financial incentives for smaller families did the same.
Read 4 tweets

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Mikey Kay
@MikeyKayNYC
#COVIDー19 22 March 2020|

IMPORTANT THREAD.

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There’s important data coming out of Italy on confirmed cases & deaths due to COVID. This should be treated as an Indicator & Warning by all of us. Please watch & share. (Birds chirping in the background for moral support!)
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GreatGameIndia
@GreatGameIndia
#Thread
#populationcontrollaw is actually #Agenda21 which is British policy to reduce population of former colonies like India through various sterilization & other policies peddled through United Nations and popularised by Hollywood to effectively keep nations under their orbit.
In 1974 US National Security Council under Henry Kissinger completed classified 200-page study “National Security Study Memorandum 200: Implications of Worldwide Population Growth for US Security & Overseas Interests” advocating #populationcontrollaw for nations like India.
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@IndoPac_Info
#India #Pakistan: Unprecedented heavy shelling all along the Line of Control has been reported by many sources in the last few hours. The Pakistani side of the LoC has been cut off from the internet. Casualties reported. Not clear what the reason is for the flare up.
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Aijay
@Hejeoma
#Thread 1. My people make una no vex about the gist I promised to drop, the damn thing is too long & too explicit. I have been working with my team of directors at 'HBO' to edit & re-shoot. lol I go do am like 'Game of thrones' & drop it in episodes cos all cant fit in 25 extra
2. tweets as given by twitter. Episode 1:
Disclaimer: The stories I tell here are factions, that is they are a mixture of facts & fiction. What is fact/fiction is only known to me, this is primarily a creative enterprise using humor & plain story-telling skills to entertain,
3. teach & learn as well from your feedback. Please, note that names & incidences do not represent actual persons or experiences. I’m only using my literary license, not motor license O! (Rated 18+) James & Joan have been married for 5 years & have two kids together.
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