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This sounds like the correct button-up intellectual thing to say but I am not so sure. Our friends at the WHO were well behind the curve. The CDC underestimated the problem. The FDA said consumer protection trumped public health.

Its not clear which briefing books were good. 1/2
DR. Fauci was great but he his takes are quit similiar to Trump's. He is hardcore on travel bans and here is him in the New England Journal of Medicine arguing COVID is a probably as deadly as a bad case of the flu. 2/2
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
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Karl Smith
@karlbykarlsmith
Good thread from @TheStalwart.

Dudley's op-ed is misguided, and deeply so I feel, on multiple levels.

4 points:

1) It crosses the line on independence in a way so flagrant that its impossible to imagine that Central Banking as we know it would remain. If the Fed openly 1/12
undermined the foreign policy objectives of a duly elected Administration, there is simply no defensible objection to that Administration taking all legal measures to replace the Board of Governors with people supportive of its goals.

2) Allowing the US economy to fall into 2/12
recession on the assumption that the Central Banks both understands and can influence the unstated reaction function of the Adminstration is hubris on a level that can hardly be described. It is easy to imagine that the President already has his mind made up and so 3/12
Read 12 tweets

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Raoul Pal
@RaoulGMI
I’m stuck at Grand Cayman airport waiting for the flight to Little Cayman, so I thought I’d share the story of the greatest macro trade I’ve ever seen..

Back in 2000, the macro backdrop was very similar to now and the forward looking data was suggesting a recession with the
bond market was pricing in around 75bps of cuts but sell side analysts would hear none of it. They were sure the good times would continue to roll. But the macro guys, many of whom had been forced to close shop in 1999/2000, knew that the first recession in 10 years was imminent
On January 3rd 2001, with the US economy still growing at 1.4%, the Fed surprised with a 50bps cut when many people hadn’t even returned back to work from the holidays. But one ex-GS prop trader, now at one of the worlds most famous hedge funds, drove to his half empty office
Read 20 tweets
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Oliver Drotbohm 🥁&👨‍💻
@odrotbohm
As this came up in my timeline again today, here's what I think is the gist of the problem I see with consumer-driven-contracts (#CDC). Thread…
1/ With #CDC you fundamentally establish a customer / supplier relationship in DDD strategic design terms with the API provider ending up as customer (downstream) and the client as supplier (upstream). That means you end up with *multiple* upstreams for a *single* downstream.
2/ This might sound counterintuitive first and like a detail but has important consequences: there's significant coordinating and disambiguation work this setup imposes on the API provider. *It* has to moderate potentially conflicting requirements. It serves multiple masters.
Read 8 tweets
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Robert Young Pelton
@RYP__
Prince said after his meet with Dmitriev on Jan. 11, 2017 he went back to his room where he learned that a Russian carrier had steamed to Libya and urgently asked for another meeting. The Haftar Libya meeting on the Admiral Kuznetsov was the same day reuters.com/article/us-lib…
Sputnik aired the wonderfully staged deal signing footage on the 13th. So this means that the Russians were already working with the Emiratis and Haftar but that Prince was well behind the curve. Dmitriev didn't like Prince and met with Scaramuci in Davos.
Dmitriev thought Prince was a clown. Now remember Prince is the guy that bragged to Vanity Fair about being hired to find and kill bad people for the CIA. So what did the guy who is wired into the world's spy agencies use to brief himself ? Wikipedia. You can't make this shit up.
Read 4 tweets
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#UnRedactedCopy Lori
@LJT_is_me
❤️🇺🇸#FDA Thank you so much @SGottliebFDA
Job well done ~
axios.com/fda-commission…
Read 3 tweets
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Tim Mak
@timkmak
Had an eye-opening interview this week with the CEO of @FireEye, a top cybersecurity firm.

The facts are depressing.

Bottom line is: there's no such thing as a reliable cyberdefense. A dedicated attacker WILL get through eventually.
@FireEye FireEye formed over 300 'Red Teams' where companies/orgs hired them to try and break in. Break in to steal the CEO's email or affect the assembly line.

More the 90% of the time, FireEye was able to do it in five days.

And these are conscientious companies!
@FireEye FireEye's CEO Kevin Mandia says that we are almost entirely blind to what Russia, Iran and other state actors are doing on information operations. He estimates that we are tracking perhaps 3-5% of their activities.
Read 8 tweets

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