Week 1 (27 Mar-02 Apr)-Very flat curve of detection. Cases will rise but mitigation will be swift. Government control over population will tighten. Production of Test Kits and Ventilators will be a concern.
WEEK 2
Week 2 (03 Apr-09 Apr) Higher number of cases than week 1. New districts with fresh cases will emerge. Mitigation will be swifter. Ventilators and Test Kits will cease to be a challenge.
Week 3 (10 Apr-17 Apr)- Higher than Week 1&2 cases however it will be plateau for virus control. No. of cases and medical set up will match right down to district level. Strong control over movement of population.
Week 4 (18 Apr-24 Apr)- Virus spread in complete control. However curbs on domestic pan India movement will be tightly controlled, international movement will remain closed.
Will catch up around 10 Apr to review my tweets and check if my reading was correct. Till then, please find holes in my analysis. Will be happy to respond.
The first 25 tweets explain everything that has gone right so far. INDIA will win but DID ALL “INDIANS” WIN? Sadly NO. Watch this space tomorrow for everything that could have been done better. Execution was POOR.
Third day of lockdown and my take on what never got brainstormed. Soon as you finish reading you will realise it was all possible to do without creating panic. We lacked ....
We lacked SIMULTANEITY, OUT-OF-THE-BOX thinking expected out of a TWO DIMENSIONAL BUREAUCRACY with THREE DIMENSIONAL EGOs. We had three weeks☹️☹️which we wasted on frivolous issues.
👉🏻PM decides to ‘just’ announce countrywide lockdown. Period. FOUR HOURS OF PANIC SET IN.
👉🏻PM decided to break the news himself. Like demonetisation it’s ‘Aaj raat 12 baje se’....It started chaos.
👉🏻No directions given for food, medicines, emergencies in PMs speech to reassure India.
👉🏻Zero state-to-state and centre-state-centre coordination. States just reacted to PMs announcement of lockdown. CMs not taken into confidence.
👉🏻Centre handling pandemic as if it’s Central Government task and states just react.
👉🏻States completely left on their own, a country lockdown announced, now go scratch your heads.
👉🏻Warning time of three weeks after detection of first case wasted by not preparing citizens. Shocking state of mediocre bureaucracy.
👉🏻Corona is not routine epidemic. Current websites cannot handle traffic. No central.....
.....No central agency with pooled manpower. No one to direct. Ministries + PMO.
👉🏻No out-of-box thinking. NDRF, SDRF, Election Commission at centre and state reaches down to polling booths. NHAI is another. Their networks.....
.....NHAI is another. Their networks and softwares are pan India. These should have been converted as SPV in first two weeks.
👉🏻More dormant organisations should have been identified and prepared for the lockdown.
👉🏻100% Railway Stations with Air Conditioned coaches should have been earmarked for quarantine.
👉🏻Quarantine facilities right down to block level could have been created in first two weeks. Lack of imagination highlighted.
👉🏻Police not sensitised on ‘humanitarian curfew’ as opposed to ‘law and order’ curfew. Police brutality is shocking.
👉🏻No thought given to domestic migrant workforce to get back home. Trains and Inter state buses cancelled pan India!!!!! Domestic flights ply!
👉🏻No control on masks in first two weeks. A 5 rupee mask had street price of Rs 32/-.
....Hand sanitizers for Rs 200/- . Black market thrived!!
👉🏻No warning to industry to innovate for work from home.
👉🏻Reducing human dependence and increasing software reach was a two week job, if only it came as out-of-box.
👉🏻Everything boils down to Country not being taken into confidence for a disaster on country. 👉🏻Three crucial weeks lost where simultaneity and out of the box solutions could have eased life.
👉🏻Bureaucracy proved that they are dummys. They follow orders of lawmakers and are highest paid national garbage. 👉🏻We Indians are used to this chaos. First three days of lockdown/curfew have gone. We always get up & fight.
👉🏻Lessons have to be learnt. We are doing fine. 👉🏻BE PREPARED FOR A SIX MONTHS LOCKDOWN WITH CONTROLLED FREECOM OF MOVEMENT. 👉🏻Districts, States, domestic and international movement will open in graded manner. DIG IN FOR LONG FIGHT