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COVID-19 cases in LA County have almost doubled in the last two days. On Wednesday there were 787 total cases. Today there are 1465.

But the two main takeaways are:
1) we have avoided the worst so far
2) our behavior now will have a huge impact on how bad it gets
(thread)
The recent big jump in confirmed LA COVID cases is mostly due to an increase in testing.

678 new cases in two days is a huge jump, but the number of people tested went from 6300 to 11000 in that time.

The percentage of positive tests has stayed about flat at 11%.
While deaths are rising more rapidly now than they were last week, LA is maybe not yet on the Italy track.

We’re 16 days after the first COVID death in LA County — and we're now at 26 deaths total. After 16 days in Italy, 366 people had died.
Something to be aware of: the first two deaths of COVID-19 in LA appear to have contracted the disease elsewhere, which might mean the first victims of community spread in LA County died only six days ago.

After six days, Italy was only at about 20 deaths.
Here’s why our behavior now is important — because of early social distancing, CA’s COVID peak will be late. Right now it’s projected for 4/24.

The peak is when hospitals will be most burdened. And LA’s ICU beds were already almost full last week: latimes.com/california/sto…
There have been steps taken to add more hospital beds. The USNS Mercy arrived at the Port of LA today — it will take non-COVID patients and put slack in the system.

But the peak will still be devastating if we don’t maintain aggressive social distancing.
Our relative success at avoiding the worst impacts of the virus in LA is the reason we need to be most aggressive in limiting the spread now.

The fewer people get sick here, the fewer medical resources we’ll need -- which frees up vital aid for places like New York.
Here are some of the best follows for COVID-19 information in LA:

@skarlamangla
@ReporterClaudia
@CShalby
@lapublichealth
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