Thread by @Trinhnomics

HK is tightening mobility, first foreign & now local. Gyms etc shut & people in Hong Kong'll no longer be allowed to assemble in groups of more than 4. So much for containment - suppression is here as case rises by +65 to 518. News says fresh veg + fruit'll be more expensive soon

https://twitter.com/hkchrislau/status/1243727984827043840

If the economy free falling isn't bad enough (tourism, hospitality in ICU), we got supply shock from food!
Fruit supplies from Spain, Italy, Australia & North Africa have faced disruptions this month, importers will increase prices 🥕🍅🍆🧄🍉🍑🥝🥥🥑📈😱!

scmp.com/news/hong-kong…

Food supply shock coming for food importers globally!

Major rice exporters like Vietnam, India, Thailand likely to want to keep it for themselves given country under lockdown or semi lockdown.

Why do we have a fresh food supply shock? Well the very thing that transports fruits & vegs around the world - air cargo - is being severely restricted. Importers said there was increasing uncertainty over cargo flights in April and May following severe cuts in passenger services

A case in point was a batch of berries from North Africa, which had to be sent via London to Hong Kong, he said. The trade-off was an extra 30 per cent cost for freight forwarding, Lai added. “We will raise wholesale prices on berries by 20 per cent next week,” he said.

Yep,📈🍓

HK was the world’s No 1 high-value air cargo hub, handling the most freight in 2018 at 5 million tonnes, ahead of Shanghai, Incheon and Dubai airports.

So high-end food that's airlifted'll be more scarce! Some good news: fresh Japanese food unaffected as travels by sea!!

🥑🥥📈

Bottom line:

Sharp short-term supply shock, followed by a persistent demand shock.

Both of which can only mean one thing: recession at best case scenario & well... Meaning, U-shaped base case scenario & we can have either L or urgh, I

Not gonna say the D word🙁. Don't wanna.

Sorry, I should have also posted this story of Vietnam banning export of rice over worries about food security (Vietnam is a major global rice exporter):

#1 India rice exporter (under 3-wk lockdown)
#2 Thailand (under lockdown)
#3 Vietnam (hoarding rice)

scmp.com/week-asia/econ…

So not just high-end fruits & vegetables affected by air cargo issues, meaning higher prices of the very thing people need to fight the virus & stay healthy, we got:

RICE SUPPLY VERY DISRUPTED.

Don't forget that Thai supply already weakened by severe drought this yr hence 🍚📈!