Said on 9 March:
“The feedback loop is emerging,” said @Trinhnomics senior economist at Natixis.
“As China recovers and resumes its supply chains, it will be hit by demand shocks from its own subdued demand and an increasingly infected world.”
japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/1…
“The feedback loop is emerging,” said @Trinhnomics senior economist at Natixis.
“As China recovers and resumes its supply chains, it will be hit by demand shocks from its own subdued demand and an increasingly infected world.”
japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/03/1…
If you think the >3million unemployment claims were bad for the US, this is coming for Asia.
The US is the #1 importer of global goods. Europe is the largest economic bloc in the world.
These 2 are under quarantine + most Asian economies. Orders'll be canceled & layoffs'll come
The US is the #1 importer of global goods. Europe is the largest economic bloc in the world.
These 2 are under quarantine + most Asian economies. Orders'll be canceled & layoffs'll come
In a globalized world, no one will be spared & most GLOBALIZED'll be most affected.
Asia & Europe & commodity exporters will feel the pain for a long time. In the US, not respite either as a 77% service oriented economy = irrecoverable loss of income. Fiscal helps, but marginal.
Asia & Europe & commodity exporters will feel the pain for a long time. In the US, not respite either as a 77% service oriented economy = irrecoverable loss of income. Fiscal helps, but marginal.
As we think about the prospect for employment, or shall I say increasingly lack thereof, let's not forget the debt level & its accumulation.
Below is a chart of stock of debt in Asia & the change in the past 5 yrs. What do u see? Who's most vulnerable?
Below is a chart of stock of debt in Asia & the change in the past 5 yrs. What do u see? Who's most vulnerable?
Household consumer debt is the most expensive (most risky & so rates are high & don't benefit too much from central bank easing). As employment falters (orders in large economies drop =manufacturing firms reductions costs = job losses). Cracks are showing.
finance.yahoo.com/news/global-co…
finance.yahoo.com/news/global-co…
Just like the deleverage in the financial markets (equities fall as deleveraging occurs as expectations of future earnings fall), there'll be a deleveraging as well in the household consumer debt (and also mortgages) in Asia. That process will lead to reduced appetite to consume.
