Random observation related to the WHO and Taiwan: I imagine that unrecognized/breakaway states are going to have the screws turned on them by national governments who won't let a good crisis go to waste. Possible shift of power in many places. Spitballing some predictions...
STATE: Transnistria, northeastern Moldova
STATUS: Screwed. Ukraine and Moldova have shut the borders to all traffic, even cargo. Russia is too far away to help. Nobody cares about Moldova/Transnistria so a Moldovan invasion will be yawned at.
STATUS: Screwed. Ukraine and Moldova have shut the borders to all traffic, even cargo. Russia is too far away to help. Nobody cares about Moldova/Transnistria so a Moldovan invasion will be yawned at.
STATE(S): DNR and LNR, eastern Ukraine
STATUS: Battered hard. Ukraine turning the screws on them by blocking entry, but Russia excluded DNR and LNR citizens from its ban on foreign entrants. Already suffering from the war, likely massive brain drain into Russia coming soon.
STATUS: Battered hard. Ukraine turning the screws on them by blocking entry, but Russia excluded DNR and LNR citizens from its ban on foreign entrants. Already suffering from the war, likely massive brain drain into Russia coming soon.
STATE(S): Abkhazia and South Ossetia, northern Georgia
STATUS: Undetermined. South Ossetian borders were already closed with Georgia, so doubt much change. Abkhazian borders with Georgia shut recently. Both recognized by Russia as sovereign states, but both poor and isolated.
STATUS: Undetermined. South Ossetian borders were already closed with Georgia, so doubt much change. Abkhazian borders with Georgia shut recently. Both recognized by Russia as sovereign states, but both poor and isolated.
STATE: Artsakh/Nagorno-Karabakh, western Azerbaijan
STATUS: probably okay. All borders already closed save for with Armenia. No infections as of right now. Biggest concern is Azeri military making a move, which isn't out of the question.
STATUS: probably okay. All borders already closed save for with Armenia. No infections as of right now. Biggest concern is Azeri military making a move, which isn't out of the question.
STATE: Taiwan
STATUS: fine for the moment. Low infection rate, and being an island it's more difficult to blockade. Doubt the U.S. or anyone else would intervene if China turned the screws on them, though. Taiwan just isn't that important.
STATUS: fine for the moment. Low infection rate, and being an island it's more difficult to blockade. Doubt the U.S. or anyone else would intervene if China turned the screws on them, though. Taiwan just isn't that important.
