Yesterday, I asked some coronavirus questions on twitter. The response was a little overwhelming. Here is my attempt to distil the answers. THREAD. 1/19 (sorry)
First, this should all be heavily caveated. The virus is new. Policy responses are new. The more data we have, the better honed the policy response can be. I'll include references to three sources I have found particularly helpful at the end. 2/
It does seem possible for the spread of the virus not just to be slowed, but to stopped. However, where there is a susceptible population, it may return. It will need to be controlled - at least until a reliable vaccine is available. 3/
There's tentative evidence from China, S Korea and others; and theory too - some simulations result in large numbers remaining susceptible (and not infected, or recovered/removed). Thoughts on how to control the virus at that stage, come later. 4/
For now, the urgent need is to prevent the NHS, social care, and essential services from being overwhelmed. Beds, trained staff, PPE, etc. The more capacity the NHS has, the more it will take to overwhelm it. 5/
Also, the maximum possible (physical distancing) measures should be taken to prevent infections from occurring. The main aim should be to stop chains from infections from arising. 6/
We seem to be debating whether to go to the Peak District, how far we are allowed to be running, and what 2 metres is 'in the real world'. This sort of thing will only make a tiny difference. There are surely other more urgent priorities. 7/
What is the risk of spread from essential workers to the members of their households? Is it sensible for people to be congregating in supermarkets, on public transport, and on construction sites? We need to think, and hard, about ways to minimise the spread. 8/
If we do that, the curve will flatten. But, we should not forget that there is a time-lag. Today's figures are a reflection of policy changes introduced 2 or 3 weeks ago. We won't be able to assess 'lockdown' for about 2 weeks. 9/
I can't tell how long the measures will take to ease the pressure on the NHS. Perhaps 2 months? It is only after that time, that we will be able to think about the next stage. 10/
That next stage depends, crucially, on more accurate data. We will want to know who has, or has had, the virus. So testing will be key. We will want to know which distancing measures have the 'best' effects and the least cost. 11/
There is no chance of a return to normal in the aftermath of the passing of the peak. Distancing will have to continue, so that the R value (the amount of people each person infects) remains below 1. If that happens, the virus begins to peter out. 12/
Only when there is an effective vaccine will it be possible to return to 'normal'. It is quite a thought. I very doubt that we will be seeing large gatherings (football matches, concerts, lectures even) in 2020. 13/
One last dimension, is that this is a global pandemic. The virus is no respecter of boundaries. International travel will mean that all states are vulnerable to the policy choices of other states. 14/
Two things flow from that. One is that international coordination is crucial. The second is that - absent rigorous effective testing at borders - travel may be very restricted... again, until an effective vaccine is found. 15/
That's (more than) enough. Again, really interested to see others' views on all this @JamieWoodhouse @fascinatorfun. And these are the three things I have found the most useful. 16/
First, this article, on the hammer and the dance, which distinguishes the phases of the response really well.
amp.rappler.com/thought-leader… 17/
amp.rappler.com/thought-leader… 17/
Second, this video, which models the spread, and introduces the idea of 'the susceptible' which I adopted above.
18/
18/
And third, this thread, which also links back to the thread in which I asked my questions.
19/19
19/19
