There has been a lot of comment from non-experts about the coronavirus. Before adding to it, and talking about 'the next phase' (because I can't help myself), a small caveat. Thread. 1/20
I am in no position to assess the scientific advice. All I'm doing is interrogating that advice (ht @Sime0nStylites). If Govt advice makes sense and is trusted, it will (I suspect) be better supported. See 2/
Trust is a hugely important commodity. People may be asked to disrupt their lives, to forego work, leisure activities and contact with friends and family. This will be much easier to bear if the Govt's advice is sound, and if people feel properly looked after. 3/
The Govt is set (perhaps today?) to move from 'containment' to 'delay', including the introduction of some social distancing measures, of the sort we have seen in China, S Korea, Taiwan, and now much of Europe and beyond. 4/
The policy, and the reasons for the delay to the delay phase, are explained here: 5/
But, at the same time, there is an urgent - and remarkably strongly worded - plea from the WHO to Govts to take more action to slow the spread of the virus. See: 6/
I'll share one more opinion piece (and it is of course difficult to know which sources to trust). This is a long read which comes to stark conclusions about the need to take action... now: medium.com/@tomaspueyo/co… 7/
In the UK, testing has not been widely available; and the response on 111 has (at least at times) been rather underwhelming. This thread has been much shared (and all the best to Mike!): 8/
It is clear that many of those with flu-like/coronavirus-like symptoms in the UK are not being tested. It is also clear that many of those who have had contact with those who have tested positive, are not themselves being tested. 9/
MPs piled into the House of Commons yesterday to listen to @rishisunak's 'I can go further' budget speech. Many had been in contact with @NadineDorries (again, all the best to her!). Many (it seems) have not been tested. 10/
The announcement that testing capacity is to be significantly increased (from 1,500 to about 10,000 per day) is welcome. Only via this testing will be find out more about the scale of the problem. As testing increases, so (most likely) will the number of positive tests. 11/
Testing alone will not solve the problem. Faced with the (likely) realisation that many 1000s have the virus in the UK, the key question is: how should the Govt respond? 12/
Providing resources for the NHS is critical. Lombardy has not been able to cope with the scale of the outbreak. Faced with similar numbers, the NHS will, similarly, also not be able to cope. 13/
The words in yesterday's budget were reassuring; but the Chancellor could and would have gone a lot further if he wasn't starting from here. Years of under-funding have taken their toll. 14/
To slow the spread of the virus, to 'flatten the curve', and to reduce the burden on the NHS, we need a) good hygiene habits; and b) to avoid contact with those with the virus. nytimes.com/2020/03/11/sci… 15/
In order to avoid contact with those with the virus, we have to know who has the virus. So... when should a workplace, or a school, close? How many people need to have the virus/show symptoms? If places remain open, should certain activities be stopped (and if so which)? 16/
There has been 'shock' that Evangelos Marinakis, Nadine Dorries and Tom Hanks have the virus. Before long, if the numbers increase as predicted, it will become very common for people we know (via work, schools etc) to have the virus. 17/
So, and I rather think we are at this phase now, we need to move towards the assumption that *anyone* may have the virus, and seek to avoid close contact with others. 18/
We await the Govt's detailed advice. There are huge implications, and a huge challenge ahead. Social distancing measures will likely not be popular, and I can (at least in part) understand the reluctance to take them. 19/
But unless the Govt introduces them, and unless we abide by its instructions, the virus is simply going to continue to spread, and many more lives will be lost. 20/20
