Physical distancing is getting better, but some still seem not to be following. Given that, here are some thoughts about the difference between individual risk vs group risk and why it matters for an infectious disease outbreak. #covid #epitwitter 1/6
Many people I encounter still seem to be doing the personal math on risk. They reason, not many (known) cases in my area, so the risk to me is currently low. I won’t engage in high risk behaviors like being in large groups, but small groups is fine. #covid #epitwitter 2/6
And personal risk may in fact be low in some areas. But this is the risk to one person, not the risk to all of us. The probability of winning the lottery is miniscule. But the probability that someone will win the lottery is high. That’s our risk as a group #covid #epitwitter 3/6
In this case, winning the lottery is covid transmission, which of course, isn’t winning, it’s losing. And it’s what we want to prevent from happening, so we want to minimize the group risk as well as the individual risk. #covid #epitwitter 4/6
So, if everyone continues to engage in what they consider low risk behavior, the chances of local outbreaks goes way up compared to if no one did. 5/6
And because this is an infectious disease, any one transmission can lead to more and this starts to make the individual risk go up. #covid #epitwitter 6/6
Over time people will start to perceive the individual risk going up and may change their interactions, but by then it may be too late to bend the curve. So, it is important to think about the group risk as well as the individual risk. #covid #epitwitter 7/6 (oops)
