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"If the curve is indeed flattening, do we know what caused it to level off?"

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
His basic conclusion is that increases in psychologically perceived risk, rather than, but including the force of the state, caused the flattening.
Read his explanation of how the epidemic model works. It's an example of clarity.
It could be that intergenerational living arrangements played a role in Italy and Spain. As long as working age people could go out the elderly were at risk. You had to lock down everyone but of course you couldn't.
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wretchardthecat
@wretchardthecat
The Coronavirus joins the long list of events no one predicted. Pearl Harbor, the collapse of the USSR, 9/11, 2008, the populist revolt etc. Yet we ruthlessly shrank the design margin confident in the certain future. The greatest of the 7 deadly sins is pride.
There's no easy institutional way to learn humility. Civilizational success creates blind spots. The longer the winning run the bigger the blind arc grows.
"For over a thousand years Roman conquerors returning from the wars enjoyed the honor of triumph, a tumultuous parade. In the procession came trumpeteers, musicians and strange animals from conquered territories, together with carts laden with treasure and captured armaments...
Read 5 tweets
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wretchardthecat
@wretchardthecat
The crystal ball needed cleaning all across the political spectrum. From Feb 10.
That exhortation,made 50 days ago didn't age well. How confident are we that the predictions politicians are making now will be valid 50 days from now?
We are not confident. But it's reasonable to hope they will be increasingly less wrong as they correct their lead. It's better to have leaders who can learn than expect dead on first time out.
Read 3 tweets
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wretchardthecat
@wretchardthecat
nytimes.com/aponline/2020/…
The undying solidarity of humanity lasted until the toilet paper ran out.
I may be disappointed in humanity but I'm not surprised. At least that's one out of two.
Read 3 tweets

Related threads

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Jaclyn A. Siegel
@jaclynasiegel
Part of my research focuses on women's personal safety anxiety and vigilance in the context of sexual objectification. Fear of rape is "an ever-present concern" for most women Here's some fancy research about it so people listen to me.

CW: Rape/SA
🧵
Survey data from 1390 people in Chicago, Philadelphia, and San Francisco revealed that women fear crime more than men & engage in more precautionary behaviors. Unsurprisingly, older women, ethnic minority women, and low-income women report the most fear.
spssi.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.111…
In a study of 3,272 students, perceived risk of rape reported by women was nearly double that of men, and this was particularly strong at night, though women were substantially more afraid of experiencing **all** crimes at night. tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…
Read 8 tweets
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Darren 🦃
@ReformedTrader
1/ This is a thread for weird stuff that's hard to explain. IMO, there's a lot evidence against the random walk and CAPM interpretations of EMH.

That suggests that finance has the same issues as other fields in finding a model that works both conceptually and empirically.
2/ Professional stock analysts tend to be worse than random forecasters. (This is exploitable: Buying their sell recommendations and shorting their buy recommendations has had alpha in the S&P 500 universe over the past 15 years after transaction costs.)

3/ Value and momentum are negatively correlated, but both have positive returns. Tail risk historically hasn’t been sufficient to explain why this is the case:

Read 18 tweets
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Jennifer Cohn
@jennycohn1
Then you are a “grifter.” You can’t get more expert than the authors of this report, explaining that “Ballot Marking Devices cannot assure the will of the voter.” papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

These are cybersecurity election experts. One of them invented Risk Limiting Audits. 1/
2/ If you don’t know their names then you have been scammed. And as for “grifting,” there is no financial incentive for me to promote #HandMarkedPaperBallots. Remind me again how much you shelled out for L.A.’s system? You’ve been scammed.
3/ And as for calling me a “leftist,” I’m not sure what you mean by that. I voted for Hillary, but my followers fall both to the left and the right of me. My reporting is heavy on facts and sourcing. Your comments not so much. Thanks.
Read 3 tweets
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Abhishek Nagaraj 🗺️
@abhishekn
1/ Excited to release a new paper with @ReimersImke looking at the effects of book digitization on the demand for physical copies. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
The basic motivation for our work is summarized well by this article from @jsumers theatlantic.com/technology/arc… -- Even though we know have the technology, why isnt there a digital library of Alexandria? One place for all knowledge?
3/ One common roadblock? publishers unwilling to digitized their work for the fear the digital distribution will harm demand for physical copies. But are these substitution fears real? Or can digitization help you discover books and *increase* demand? We investigate this Q.
Read 10 tweets
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MacroPru
@MacroPru
Be wary of CLOs nytimes.com/2018/10/19/bus… says @NYTimes ... @lisaabramowicz1 has already warned... #levereagedlending #ShadowBanking #Risk ...
The hesitation highlights uneasiness among banks that have been challenged by regulators over the risks they’re taking in the $1.3 trillion leveraged-loan market. #LeveragedLending bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
@BIS_org #LeveragedLending
Read 4 tweets
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Patrick McKenzie
@patio11
Japan has a problem with fraudsters calling up old people and convincing them to wire money, which is instant and barely reversible here.

Tokyo Metro Police are therefore calling up every old person in Tokyo and offering to do an on-site visit and change their phone settings.
“We will humbly ask you to change the number of rings before a call goes to voice mail. Remember, if you don’t answer the phone, you can’t be victimized by fraud! Thank you for your cooperation.” (Freehand translation.)
This is Serious Business; the police report somewhere north of $50 million in damages in Tokyo.
Read 10 tweets

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