My Authors
Read all threads
1/n #Gangelt is a small town & municipality in Germany, right on the border with the Netherlands, very near Maastricht. A special in-depth serological + etc. study, the “#Covid19 Case-Cluster-Study", is being carried out there, and the first interim report is now out.
2/ #Gangelt (highlighted, w/ red border below) has, importantly, all of 12,446 people in it (not counting the present researcher team). Its most famous inhabitant was Gerardus Mercator. The “#Covid19 Case-Cluster-Study" there was launched on Tuesday 31. March.
3/ The Preliminary Results & Conclusions of the #COVID19 Case-Cluster-Study (#Gangelt Municipality) [Vorläufiges Ergebnis und Schlussfolgerungen der COVID-19 Case-Cluster-Study (Gemeinde Gangelt)] is now out:…
4/n #COVID19 Case-Cluster-Study consists in total of @ 1,000 inhabitants (from 12.5k people) from @ 400 households. Questionaires & pharyngeal swabs were performed, & blood samples tested for IgG & IgA antibodies against #SARSCoV2.
cc.@NAChristakis, @CathyYoung63, @DrJudyStone
5/n Importantly, the Preliminary Results & Conclusions of the #COVID19 Case-Cluster-Study are drawn from only @ 500 people (out of a total of @ 1,000 people in the study, out of @ 12.5k inhabitants).
cc.@NAChristakis, @CathyYoung63, @DrJudyStone
6/n #COVID19 Case-Cluster-Study preliminary results:
a/ @ 14% test positive for #SARSCoV2 IgG, spec. >,99 %. Serological test.
b/ additionally @ 2% test positive for acute SARS-CoV-2 infection. PCR test.
c/ Infection rate therefore @ 15%.
This is all in a #COVID19 hotspot.
7/n The reason why #Gangelt was chosen for this study is because it is in Heinsberg district (…), which was the site of the first big #COVID19 cluster in Germany (…). You can see how Gangelt fits into #Heinsberg district below.
8/n The #COVID19 Case-Cluster-Study made an initial conclusion of an IFR (…) of 0.37 %, at a time when the CFR in the whole of Germany was 1.98 % (JHU numbers). IFR will always be lower than CFR, because it captures the hidden number of asymptomatics etc.
9/n The mortality rate (…) for the whole population of #Gangelt is at 0.15 % at this time. For Heinsberg district as a whole, the first epicentre of #COVID19 outbreak in Germany, presently around 1,400 cases & 39 deaths. >690 people have recovered.
10/ Overall in Germany: "So far, no transmission of the virus in supermarkets, restaurants or hairdressers has been proven". #SARSCov2 was detected by PCR on "remote controls, washbasins, mobile phones, toilets or door handles" BUT NOT in infectious form.…
11/ My own conclusions from all this:
a/ In a big #COVID19 hotspot, only around 15% of the population proved positive for exposure. So much for "half the population" fad-theory people.
b/ Surfaces are not dangerous for transmission.
cc.@NAChristakis, @CathyYoung63, @DrJudyStone
11c/ What IS dangerous is people. The entire #COVID19 outbreak in #Heinsberg district is traced back to a couple who attended a local Karneval festival. It all kicked off from there.
d/ IFR is @ 0.37 % at a CFR of @ 2 %; that will go slightly up. That captures the hidden number.
12/ Further info: the #COVID19 Case-Cluster-Study (#Gangelt Municipality) [COVID-19 Case-Cluster-Study (Gemeinde Gangelt)] is run by @hendrikstreeck and @hbergprotokoll. Further useful hashtags: #heinsbergprotokoll, #heinsberg. Good report:…
I want to put the below in context. It's my firm belief that spread of #COVID19 in Wuhan was greatly increased by unhygienic markets & communal toilets. When the Germans speak of negligable risk in restaurants, for example, they're talking w/ good hygiene
UPDATE: I know the link given in this thread is no longer operative. I have found two more links, and I have downloaded the report myself, but there are two different versions. See my new update thread:
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Tim Skellett

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just three indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!