2/ #Gangelt (highlighted, w/ red border below) has, importantly, all of 12,446 people in it (not counting the present researcher team). Its most famous inhabitant was Gerardus Mercator. The “#Covid19 Case-Cluster-Study" there was launched on Tuesday 31. March.
cc.@CathyYoung63
cc.@CathyYoung63
3/ The Preliminary Results & Conclusions of the #COVID19 Case-Cluster-Study (#Gangelt Municipality) [Vorläufiges Ergebnis und Schlussfolgerungen der COVID-19 Case-Cluster-Study (Gemeinde Gangelt)] is now out:
land.nrw/sites/default/…
land.nrw/sites/default/…
4/n #COVID19 Case-Cluster-Study consists in total of @ 1,000 inhabitants (from 12.5k people) from @ 400 households. Questionaires & pharyngeal swabs were performed, & blood samples tested for IgG & IgA antibodies against #SARSCoV2.
cc.@NAChristakis, @CathyYoung63, @DrJudyStone
cc.@NAChristakis, @CathyYoung63, @DrJudyStone
5/n Importantly, the Preliminary Results & Conclusions of the #COVID19 Case-Cluster-Study are drawn from only @ 500 people (out of a total of @ 1,000 people in the study, out of @ 12.5k inhabitants).
cc.@NAChristakis, @CathyYoung63, @DrJudyStone
cc.@NAChristakis, @CathyYoung63, @DrJudyStone
7/n The reason why #Gangelt was chosen for this study is because it is in Heinsberg district (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heinsberg…), which was the site of the first big #COVID19 cluster in Germany (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coro…). You can see how Gangelt fits into #Heinsberg district below.
8/n The #COVID19 Case-Cluster-Study made an initial conclusion of an IFR (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fata…) of 0.37 %, at a time when the CFR in the whole of Germany was 1.98 % (JHU numbers). IFR will always be lower than CFR, because it captures the hidden number of asymptomatics etc.
9/n The mortality rate (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality…) for the whole population of #Gangelt is at 0.15 % at this time. For Heinsberg district as a whole, the first epicentre of #COVID19 outbreak in Germany, presently around 1,400 cases & 39 deaths. >690 people have recovered.
10/ Overall in Germany: "So far, no transmission of the virus in supermarkets, restaurants or hairdressers has been proven". #SARSCov2 was detected by PCR on "remote controls, washbasins, mobile phones, toilets or door handles" BUT NOT in infectious form.
thelocal.de/20200402/how-g…
thelocal.de/20200402/how-g…
11/ My own conclusions from all this:
a/ In a big #COVID19 hotspot, only around 15% of the population proved positive for exposure. So much for "half the population" fad-theory people.
b/ Surfaces are not dangerous for transmission.
cc.@NAChristakis, @CathyYoung63, @DrJudyStone
a/ In a big #COVID19 hotspot, only around 15% of the population proved positive for exposure. So much for "half the population" fad-theory people.
b/ Surfaces are not dangerous for transmission.
cc.@NAChristakis, @CathyYoung63, @DrJudyStone
11c/ What IS dangerous is people. The entire #COVID19 outbreak in #Heinsberg district is traced back to a couple who attended a local Karneval festival. It all kicked off from there.
d/ IFR is @ 0.37 % at a CFR of @ 2 %; that will go slightly up. That captures the hidden number.
d/ IFR is @ 0.37 % at a CFR of @ 2 %; that will go slightly up. That captures the hidden number.
12/ Further info: the #COVID19 Case-Cluster-Study (#Gangelt Municipality) [COVID-19 Case-Cluster-Study (Gemeinde Gangelt)] is run by @hendrikstreeck and @hbergprotokoll. Further useful hashtags: #heinsbergprotokoll, #heinsberg. Good report:
spiegel.de/wissenschaft/m…
spiegel.de/wissenschaft/m…
I want to put the below in context. It's my firm belief that spread of #COVID19 in Wuhan was greatly increased by unhygienic markets & communal toilets. When the Germans speak of negligable risk in restaurants, for example, they're talking w/ good hygiene
UPDATE: I know the link given in this thread is no longer operative. I have found two more links, and I have downloaded the report myself, but there are two different versions. See my new update thread:
