1/n Messaging from the UK government on how they will handle #COVID19 has been terrible. First, they miscommunicated their #herdimmunity strategy - which was flawed, in any case. Now they're saying their strategy was so flawed they're dropping it.
buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/co…
buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/co…
2/ #COVID19 does not behave like the flu. Flu-based models of harm mitigation don't fit it. As soon as #COVID19 gets over around 200 in a country, it moves too fast for only #herdimmunity strategies; cocooning AND building healthcare-for-surge are essential.
3/ yes well.
4/ It's difficult to get the exact, full details needed; but this section is very informative. The UK strategy was based on an older model that simply didn't include the very recent evidence from Italy and China.
ft.com/content/249daf…
So now they're dropping it, & scrambling.
ft.com/content/249daf…
So now they're dropping it, & scrambling.
6/ This makes the effect of different strategies clearer. The model graph is from Imperial College, imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial…. Just by the way, they also model things getting better by start of July (something I've said a bit). But between now & then is going to be very rough
7/ BTW, that red line down very near the bottom? That's present surge critical-care capacity in the UK; everything above that red line represents patients who would be unable to get a critical-care bed. IOW, the UK needs to very quickly build much more critical-care/ICU units
8/ Yes. It seems to me that — despite all the *clear* evidence from Italy — both the UK govt, & the scientific team advising them, relied on an old, irrelevant model. And now the UK govt is scrambling in the dark b/c of its own lack of diligence before.
9/ Bluntly, the UK government could have simply looked at #Lombardy, and questioned the Imperial College model. A ton of other people did *exactly that*, after all. Instead, the UK govt relied on it till the public backlash could no longer be ignored.
10/ IMHO: no *practical* strategy except building a ton more ICU units immediately, social-distancing, financial relief to the poor so they too can self-isolate when possible, quarantine & care for the most at-risk — & prophylactics till vaccine available
