1. @khamenei_ir's statement needs to be seen in the context of the "Battle for Dominance" of the Islamic World between Iran and Saudi Arabia
Riyadh's position as the leader of the Muslims has been under threat from Tehran right after the Islamic Revolution of 1979
Riyadh's position as the leader of the Muslims has been under threat from Tehran right after the Islamic Revolution of 1979
2. The genesis of this war is a war of ideologies among the two sects of Islam ; 'Shia' and 'Sunni' with Sunnis being the dominant population in the Middle East , North Africa , Pakistan , Indonesia , India and Malaysia.
3. The Muslim populations of most of these countries look towards Saudi Arabia (Custodian of Mecca and Medina) or Iran for support and guidance on issues of religious conflict , regional conflict , social trends and laws. It is a dotted line relationship.
4. The Iranians have always viewed the Saudis as cattle herders and raiders unlike their blue blooded legacy of Persian Empire and a scientifically advanced civilisation rich in art , culture and scientific research.
6. #Palestine emerged both as a rallying point and a unifying cause in the Islamic world
Regimes in Egypt , Syria , Saudi Arabia , Iraq , Jordan and Lebanon collaborated in the Arab-Israeli War as early as 1948.
Regimes in Egypt , Syria , Saudi Arabia , Iraq , Jordan and Lebanon collaborated in the Arab-Israeli War as early as 1948.
7. By formalising The PLO ( Palestine Liberation Organization ) in 1964 and fighting the "Six Day War" with Israel , Gamel Abdel Nasser assumed the de facto leadership of the Arab World.
This mantle passed onto Anwar Sadat as he led Egypt into "The Yom Kippur War" in 1973.
This mantle passed onto Anwar Sadat as he led Egypt into "The Yom Kippur War" in 1973.
8. Both Nasser and Sadat oscillated between war and peace with Israel.
Nasser called for talks in 1967 but it was Sadat who signed the Camp David Accord and the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty in 1979 which led to a major realignment in the power dynamics of the Middle East.
Nasser called for talks in 1967 but it was Sadat who signed the Camp David Accord and the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty in 1979 which led to a major realignment in the power dynamics of the Middle East.
9. Egypt was suspended from the Arab League for ten years.Anwar Sadat couldn't escape the wrath of his supposed betrayal of the Arab cause.
He was assassinated in 1981 by members of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad.This created a power vaccum that Saddam Hussein hope to fill.
He was assassinated in 1981 by members of the Egyptian Islamic Jihad.This created a power vaccum that Saddam Hussein hope to fill.
10. In Iran , Shah Reza Pehlavi was overthrown in the Islamic Revolution of 1979 and Ayatollah Khomeini pledged open support for the PLO.The Israeli Embassy in Tehran was handed over to the PLO.This was a symbolic event with great repercussions.
11. In 1985 , Hezbollah was founded in Beirut by Iran to unify Militant Shia groups in Lebabon.Hezbollah grew under Iranian Patronage and emerged as a formidable challenge for Israel.With this development , Tehran's influence soared in the Middle East.
12. The fall of Saddam Hussein in the 2003 US led invasion was a watershed moment for Iran as Saddam (An Arab Sunni) was an equal opponent
(Iran-Iraq Wars)
This enabled Tehran to consolidate its hold on Iraq through a Shia dominated government in Baghdad.
(Iran-Iraq Wars)
This enabled Tehran to consolidate its hold on Iraq through a Shia dominated government in Baghdad.
13. A bitter civil war resulted in #Iraq with Saudis and Iranians supporting parallel insurgencies and funding mercenaries.Despite a long streak of instability the Iraqi Government weathered it out and this was largely seen as a failure of the Saudis.
14. The #ArabSpring in #Egypt had a ripple effect in the region and became a fertile ground for a war of influence between Tehran and Riyadh
The most impacted among these countries were #Syria and #Yemen as the ruling elites in Damascus and San'aa aligned with either block.
The most impacted among these countries were #Syria and #Yemen as the ruling elites in Damascus and San'aa aligned with either block.
15. Tehran threw its weight behind the Houthis providing military advisers , arms and money.The Saudis despite being the most well armed US Allies in the Middle East found themselves floundering.A win for the Houthis had the capacity to deal a devastating blow to their image.
16. The Saudis organised the Arab Coalition with UAE , Bahrain , Sudan , Kuwait , Qatar , Egypt , Jordan , Morocco and Independent Contractors.
This coalition was supported by the Americans and the British ( Planning Air Strikes , Intelligence , SAR , Air Refuelling ).
This coalition was supported by the Americans and the British ( Planning Air Strikes , Intelligence , SAR , Air Refuelling ).
17. Despite two major military campaigns "OP Decisive Storm" and "OP Restoring Hope" in 2015 , the coalition floundered against stiff Houthi resistance and the campaign was a stalemate.
Riyadh was subject to widespread criticism for creating a Humanitarian Crisis in Yemen.
Riyadh was subject to widespread criticism for creating a Humanitarian Crisis in Yemen.
18. In Syria , Bashar al-Assad with support from Russia and Iran has been able to claw back lost territory.
Assad has increasingly relied on Shia Militia , Russian Special Forces and the Hezbollah to push back Saudi backed Sunni rebels in the ground campaign.
Assad has increasingly relied on Shia Militia , Russian Special Forces and the Hezbollah to push back Saudi backed Sunni rebels in the ground campaign.
19. Tehran has shown the tenacity to up the stakes against Riyadh with ballistic missile attacks on Saudi Arabia attributed to Houthis and a surgical cruise missile attack on Saudi Aramco crude processing facilities at Ababiq and Khurais.
20. Riyadh sees Tehran as an existential threat and seeks solace in the fact that the United States also views Tehran as a destabilising force in the region.
This is largely due to its Nuclear Weapons Program and muscle flexing in the Persian Gulf.
This is largely due to its Nuclear Weapons Program and muscle flexing in the Persian Gulf.
21. The power games post the death of King Salman and the emergence of Prince Mohammed Bin Salman as the defacto ruler of the House of Saud are causing turmoil with the prince seen as the brain behind Riyadh's military campaigns in Yemen and involvement in Syria.
22. .The assassination of Maj. Gen. Qassem Soleimani in a drone strike in Baghdad and a failed attempt on Brig.Gen.Abdul Reza Sehlai needs to be seen in the context of Saudi-Iranian power games and an attempt by the US to limit @khamenei_ir 's increasing regional influence.
23. As the House of Saud looks to set its find its feet in this struggle for supremacy , @khamenei_ir has quietly stepped up the rhetoric by lecturing India on safeguarding its Muslim Population.
24. It is an assertion by Iran of its perceived supremacy over Riyadh as it attempts to fill the vaccum left by the House of Saud and has negligible impact on the larger strategic relationship between New Delhi and Tehran.
25. This is an attempt to broadly explain the Saudi-Iranian power dynamics and deliberately skips the role of King Hussein of Jordan , Saddam Hussein , American and Russian Intervention , ISIS and minute details which might have caused deviations from the original scope.
@threader_app compile
