Thread by @CPHO_Canada

1/10 Today I presented an update on #GOC modelling that includes two types of approaches: 1. forecasting for short-term predictions & 2. dynamic modelling for hypothetical “if, then” planning scenarios. #COVID19

2/10 In forecasting models, #GOC uses real data from #COVID19 cases in 🇨🇦 to make short-term predictions of the number of cases & deaths we might expect if #epidemiology drivers & #publichealth measures stay relatively stable.

3/10 Today’s #GOC forecast model gives a short-term prediction out to May 5th of between 53,000-67,000 #COVID19 cases & 3,300-3,900 deaths, but ↑ cases in high-risk individuals can ↑ case fatality rate, leading to underprediction.

4/10 Dynamic models show what COULD happen under different scenarios with ↑ versus ↓ epidemic control, which helps us plan & drive #publichealth
measures toward a best outcome & away from a worst-case scenario. #COVID19

5/10 The goal of #publichealth action is to #SlowtheSpread of #COVID19 so, on average, each infected person is only able to infect LESS THAN 1 other person. This causes the epidemic runs out of fuel.

6/10 #Publichealth & collective efforts of Canadians have helped get us very near that goal. Now, on average, each person infects just over 1 other person, ↓ from spread to over 2 other people, early in the #COVID19 epidemic! #KeepItUp #TeamCanada

7/10 We are observing slowed epidemic growth and a flattening of the curve across most jurisdictions in Canada. At this time, the number of cases is doubling at a rate of every 16 days. Way to go Canada!

8/10 To stay with the best-case scenario: continue tried & true #publichealth
measures, incl. #PhysicalDistancing, good #handwashing + continue ↑ #testandtrace to detect/isolate #COVID19 cases & trace/quarantine contacts. #KeepItUp #LâchePasLaPatate!

9/10 Until 🇨🇦 has widespread high-level population immunity to the virus or an effective vaccine available, some type & degree of #publichealth measures will be needed to prevent & control sparking & fueling of future #COVID19 waves.

10/10 When to relax/adjust #publichealth measures will vary based on local context & #COVID19 #epidemiology Relaxing controls too quickly could squander our collective efforts to date & put us at risk of future epidemic waves.

To view the modelling presentation click here: canada.ca/content/dam/ph…