Thread by @Jan_Achakzai

THREAD—#Israel & UAE thaw

🇦🇪’s Itehad Airways’ first flight 2 🇮🇱 created a stir in ME & even finding traction in Turkey & 🇵🇰 w/ trolls running #boycottUAE trends.

But many fails 2 understand geo-political motives of warming ties of #GCC w/ 🇮🇱.

Here is how it prompted ?
1/

(a) Antipathy towards Iran is “cliched” convergence but 🇦🇪 & 🇸🇦 feel shaky when

(b) Iran's #IRGC is upping the ante:

(i) 🇮🇷 pushes 2 populate UAE islands occupied by Tehran;
(ii) succeeds 2 make look US forces vulnerable by “harassment”;
(iii) assertively claiming....2/

....."ownership" of the Gulf.
(iv) making new claims, re Bahrain & Kuwait;
(v) US retrenched it’s leadership when 🇮🇷 sponsored an attack on KSA’s installation.

2 big obstacles 4 GCC 2 normalise ties w/ #Israel were:
(A) ground swell public opinion &
(B) Palestinian cause

3/

First, 4 🇦🇪, public opinion is now less material-already it has informal diplomatic contacts w/ 🇮🇱 & even ministers used 2 visit 🇦🇪 ; cultural ties ; besides, population mass is small.

Second, on 🇵🇸 issue, many Arab leaders believe real hurdle is Arafat/Abbas led....4/

Political authorities, not 🇮🇱.
i.e,—
1. Yasir Arafat refused 2 state solution in 2000, as 🇮🇱 offered virtual Palestinian sovereign state from Gaza 2 West Bank w/ shared sovereignty of Jerusalem.

2. 🇮🇱-i PM Ehud Olmert repeated this offer 2 Abbas in 2008; but was snubbed
5/

3. Most pro-Palestinian #US President Obama even failed 2 convince Mehmood Abbas.

Now GCC leaders understand:

a) that worse 🇮🇱 can do 2 annex same settlements already part of its protection;
b) comprehensive withdrawal of 🇮🇱 From Gaza in 2005 never led 2 peace;

6/

c) 🇮🇱-is can not be cleansed from the land “from river 2 the sea” as Palestinians would say;
d) “Land 4 peace” strategy outlived its utility;
e) outrage on annexation of Golan Heights, East Jerusalem & moving #US Embassy 2 Jerusalem did not materially alter statuesque 4 🇮🇱

7/

So 4 Arab statesmen, small part of West Bank annexation may even push Palestinian leaders 2 smell the coffee & allow some compromise.

Meanwhile, they can not mortgage their geo-political imperatives to Palestinian leaders’ obduracy hence seeking 2 enhance cooperation w/ 🇮🇱.
8/

Option 4 Pakistan: due 2
1) No political will, 2) stranglehold of clergy lobby on FP, 3) strong public opinion & 4) 🇮🇷 ’s leverage, 🇵🇰 may unlikely debate merits of engagement w/ 🇮🇱.

Nor 🇵🇰 will opt 4 Turkey template: 🇹🇷 has ties w/ 🇮🇱 yet strongly support Palestinians.
9/

🇵🇰 failed 2 see rising 🇮🇳 & 🇮🇱 ties as alarm 2 consider engaging 🇮🇱 2 impose conditionality on use of its weapons by 🇮🇳, re, 🇵🇰.

Weaponising of 🇵🇸 issue is never a rational FP course, not least giving in 2 clergy.

PM @ImranKhanPTI can take the bull by the horns.

10/. End