What strategic compulsion weighed in behind the Chinese move?
A) What immediate reasons?
2. Post Aug 5 annexation of IOK w/ 🇮🇳-n intention 2 turn Laddakh into union territory rattled 🇨🇳 that 🇮🇳 is materially changing status of th region contested by🇨🇳& 🇵🇰.
4. 🇨🇳 rightly read lack of will in Delhi 2 pay back kinetically given its weakness re, economy, Corona & IOK on boil, hence afforded perfect chance;
♠️🇮🇳 unlikely seek a full fledged fight w/ 🇨🇳 due 2
-historical reasons—1962 defeat;
-economic differential w/ 🇨🇳.
♠️🇨🇳 will also eschew escalating given its pic picture imperatives: economic revival; post Corona order etc.
♦️🇮🇳 has less options kinetically;
♦️since 🇮🇳 seeks 2 control spread of tension, any escalation may have unintended consequences;
♦️best pressure point 4 🇮🇳 is South China Sea but it is unthinkable 2 breach into high militarised zone-a red line for 🇨🇳;
♦️The best option is non-kinetic response in Indo-Pacific as both US & Delhi seek to checkmate Beijing along w/ other Quads members.
it means constant Beijing pressure on #Gallwan river valley & putting an end 2 delusional aspirations of making Laddakh a union territory.
2 trade policy—one 4 China other 4 rest —codified as “Atam Nirbhar Bharat”;
Pharmaceuticals 2 revisit value chain; new barriers towards 🇨🇳-es investment;
🔶 On the negative side; India after humiliating Laddakh episode.....
🔶 🇮🇳 after Balakot & August 5 IOK annexation, believes Pakistan may have no will to escalate hence can give space 4 kinetic action of its choosing;
Thus it is right time 2 attack 🇵🇰, as Delhi’s thinking goes.
🔶Post Corona world & US leadership retrenchment give 🇮🇳 .....
🔶CPEC likely further be targeted;
🔶 🇵🇰 was facing hybrid warfare by 🇮🇳 but now it has unpalatable choice: risk more 🇮🇳-n aggressions into its territory or establish new deterrence by raising cost 4 🇮🇳.