Thread by @Jan_Achakzai

THREAD:

#China-#India stand-off at Laddakh & consequences 4 #Pakistan

What I think of new tension?

🇨🇳’s move into #Laddakh & establishing a hold over Galwan river valley comes after 🇮🇳 coerced Nepal by encroaching it’s border territory & reviving Kalapani dispute.

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China says that #India actually encroached in its territory. The similar holding over of river valley led to 1962 war between India and China.

What strategic compulsion weighed in behind the Chinese move?

A) What immediate reasons?

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1. 🇮🇳 ’s aggressive behaviour re Nepal reviving Kalapani dispute, indirectly implicated 🇨🇳-es interest.

2. Post Aug 5 annexation of IOK w/ 🇮🇳-n intention 2 turn Laddakh into union territory rattled 🇨🇳 that 🇮🇳 is materially changing status of th region contested by🇨🇳& 🇵🇰.

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3. 🇨🇳 ’s perception of its tactical invulnerability on Laddakh front constitutes best pressure point 2 send a message to 🇮🇳;

4. 🇨🇳 rightly read lack of will in Delhi 2 pay back kinetically given its weakness re, economy, Corona & IOK on boil, hence afforded perfect chance;

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B) What is constant?

♠️🇮🇳 unlikely seek a full fledged fight w/ 🇨🇳 due 2
-historical reasons—1962 defeat;
-its unpreparedness;
-economic differential w/ 🇨🇳.

♠️🇨🇳 will also eschew escalating given its pic picture imperatives: economic revival; post Corona order etc.

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C) What 🇮🇳 can do?

♦️🇮🇳 has less options kinetically;

♦️since 🇮🇳 seeks 2 control spread of tension, any escalation may have unintended consequences;

♦️best pressure point 4 🇮🇳 is South China Sea but it is unthinkable 2 breach into high militarised zone-a red line for 🇨🇳;

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♦️Another region is Indian Ocean to coerce Beijing; but it is a disproportionate response Delhi would think twice;

♦️The best option is non-kinetic response in Indo-Pacific as both US & Delhi seek to checkmate Beijing along w/ other Quads members.

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♦️As a bottom line, India does not have many palatable options except to live w/ altered statuesque—

it means constant Beijing pressure on #Gallwan river valley & putting an end 2 delusional aspirations of making Laddakh a union territory.

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D) What India would seek?

(i) India will seek #US support by posing a victim of Chinese aggression;

(ii) Delhi will further cement defence cooperation w/ Washington;

(iii) #India will expedite decoupling & take parallel economic measures....

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....🇮🇳 is stepping back from digital #BRI like Alibaba, Huawei,ZTE etc; launched BNSL4G; investment in Reliance Joi;
2 trade policy—one 4 China other 4 rest —codified as “Atam Nirbhar Bharat”;

Pharmaceuticals 2 revisit value chain; new barriers towards 🇨🇳-es investment;

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(iv) #Delhi’s military & strategic establishment would exponentially enhance security budget;

E) Repercussions 4 #Pakistan?

Kinetic:

🔶 On the positive, India would think twice executing its rhetorics of taking GB due 2 Chinese vital interest in #CPEC going through GB.

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🔶 As Delhi will rightly read Beijing’s intention (i.e, Laddakh move) which is clear: in case of India’s Kalapani incursion or any Laddakh breach or any potential GB aggression, China will not set idle;

🔶 On the negative side; India after humiliating Laddakh episode.....

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....would like 2 go 4 fall-back option e.g, attack Pakistan 2 appease its domestic public opinion & assuage prestige loss;

🔶 🇮🇳 after Balakot & August 5 IOK annexation, believes Pakistan may have no will to escalate hence can give space 4 kinetic action of its choosing;

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🔶 IOK is boiling at unacceptable cost 4 Delhi so it may be the best opportunity 2 establish a narrative of Pakistan going proxy in #IOK yet again.

Thus it is right time 2 attack 🇵🇰, as Delhi’s thinking goes.

🔶Post Corona world & US leadership retrenchment give 🇮🇳 .....
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.....a perfect alibi 2 mount a kinetic response against🇵🇰;

🔶CPEC likely further be targeted;

🔶 🇵🇰 was facing hybrid warfare by 🇮🇳 but now it has unpalatable choice: risk more 🇮🇳-n aggressions into its territory or establish new deterrence by raising cost 4 🇮🇳.

15/ END