Thread by @Jan_Achakzai

Thread:

Losing Afghanistan 2 Indian play?

Here I am flagging 🇮🇳’s role becoming hurdle 2 peace.

1. #US has by-default created “ strategically permissive environment” in West Asia allowing #India 2 push through its destabilising role.

2. 🇮🇳 meticulously spoiled

(a) the momentum 4 Intra-Afghan dialogue in the wake of US-#Taliban deal;

(b) activated state & non-state actors;

(c) first ditched Dr Abdullah 4 Ghani 2 scuttle former’s chance, (1), to win elections .....

3.
....(ie, by having engineered results via NDS/RAW as even US flagged its concerns), (2), to preempt his joining Govt as proposed by US.

Against this backdrop,
(i) pointed reaction of Abdullah camp (ie holding anti-🇮🇳-n protests across 🇦🇫 & burning 🇮🇳-n flags) followed &....

4. ....

(ii) 🇮🇳’s Ambassador refused to meet Abdullah to send him a message;

(iii) It culminated in overtures from Abdullah towards Pakistan including defacto recognition of #Durand line as “Chaman-Buldak border” & desire to revisit ties with Islamabad.

5. 🇮🇳 enacted real game through proxy Ghani: he refused

(1) US-Taliban deal;
(2) stalled release of listed TB prisoners;
(3) termed Govt prisoners released by TB as “civilians”;
(4) refused “Sayaf formula” 4 inclusive govt;&
(5) launched hand picked narrow based negotiators;

6. US leadership could NOT bring 2 bear any pressure instead :

(a) acquiesced to Ghani’s fraudulent win;

(b) legitimise his oath taking despite signalling all along that they will not make peace hostage to ambitions of Ghani, etc;

(c) reluctantly supported his negotiators.

7. 🇮🇳 blunted all US pressure on Ghani
—by markedly assuring all support, re, financial.

— moved Kinetically, re, framing 🇵🇰 through Kabul Gurdwara false flag attack,

—surrendered #ISKP proxy Abdullah Farooqi via #NDS
—mounted Spin Bolduk attack on 🇵🇰 security men fencing.

8.

&
—raised (a) anti-ethnic Tajik proxy group 2 counter Abdullah & balance US; & (b) recruited Taliban proxy.

🇮🇳’s nightmare is Taliban inclusive Afghan Govt; so it put all eggs in Ghani’s basket. But Ghani will loose either way: meet Najibullah’s fate or flee back 2 🇺🇸

9. But 4 now, With the US leadership retrenchment, Afghanistan has becom —through Ghani— an Indian pitch to play.

Hence India is playing classic spoiler—a set back 4 goals of peace, #US, & region: #China, #Russia, Pakistan & #Iran. End