1/8 Here’s the [fairly] simple math on why YOUR actions matter. 1 case of #COVID19 spread to ~3 people X 10 generations of spread (IF NO #PUBLICHEALTH MEASURES) = 88,573 cumulative cases & many deaths in just ~5 weeks. See how it happens:
2/8 Think of yourself as the red dot in the middle who could spread to 3 contacts IF no #publichealth measures. This shows just 3 generations of spread from 1 (YOU) to 39 other cases in just 12 days (~4 days btw. each generation). 
3/8 The degree of #COVID19 CONTROL vs. SPREAD depends on the #Publichealth measures we all continue to take. Without #PhysicalDistancing, #Handwashing, #CoughEtiquette, & non-medical masks where recommended, here is what can happen:
4/8Starting from YOU x 3 contacts, then on from YOUR 3 contacts x their 3 contacts and so forth, in just 10 generations of spread over ~5 weeks (4 days/generation), a total of 88,572 cumulative cases can accumulate, like this:
5/8
1x3=3
3x3=9
9x3=27
27x3=81
81x3=243
243x3=729
729x3=2187
2,187x3=6,561
6,561x3=19,683
19,683x3=59,049 new cases [88,572 cumulative cases]
1x3=3
3x3=9
9x3=27
27x3=81
81x3=243
243x3=729
729x3=2187
2,187x3=6,561
6,561x3=19,683
19,683x3=59,049 new cases [88,572 cumulative cases]
6/8 This is the math behind the basic reproductive number (R) that represents how contagious #COVID19 is. WITHOUT public health measures each case spreads to ~3 others (R=3), with a new generation starting about every 4 days and so on...
7/8 But WITH #publichealth measures we can reduce the number of new people infected by each case to less than 1 new case (R<1), which will slow the spread, stop exponential epidemic growth and KEEP #COVID19 CONTROLLED.
8/8 That’s why, YOUR actions matter to help keep #COVID19 down to low enough levels that #publichealth is able to #TestandTrace to find & isolate new cases and quarantine contacts. #WeAreAllinThisTogether
