1). Patrick Vallance tells the @CommonsSTC that SAGE advised the govt to impose lockdown measures “as soon as possible” “on the 18th or 16th of March, I can’t remember”
Remarkable that he doesn’t recall the date.
He fails to explain why the govt wait a week before locking down?
Remarkable that he doesn’t recall the date.
He fails to explain why the govt wait a week before locking down?
2). Professor @JeremyFarrar, who is a member of SAGE, does remember.
He has just clarified that on 13 March - with #COVID infections doubling every 2-3 days - SAGE decided a lockdown was needed.
They advised the govt of this on 16 March.
UK locked down on 23 March.
#COVID19
He has just clarified that on 13 March - with #COVID infections doubling every 2-3 days - SAGE decided a lockdown was needed.
They advised the govt of this on 16 March.
UK locked down on 23 March.
#COVID19
3/. On 10/6, @neil_ferguson who did the modelling presented on 16 March, said locking down a week earlier could have saved 20,000 lives.
Modeller, Prof Edmunds, told #Marr: “We should have gone into lockdown earlier…I think that has cost a lot of lives.”
Modeller, Prof Edmunds, told #Marr: “We should have gone into lockdown earlier…I think that has cost a lot of lives.”
4/. Whilst it is true that the findings presented by @neil_ferguson showed transmission rates were twice as high as previously believed, its vital to note that Ferguson’s earlier modelling, presented on 25 Feb, ALSO showed the NHS would be overwhelmed.👇
5/. Recently published SAGE minutes show that the govt KNEW on 25 February - 3 weeks before they claimed - that NHS ICU beds would be overwhelmed.
NERVTAG populated a data table on 21/2 which fed into a table used by SPI-M and Imperial’s report on 25/2.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
NERVTAG populated a data table on 21/2 which fed into a table used by SPI-M and Imperial’s report on 25/2.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
6/. At the SAGE meeting on 27 Feb, the Reasonable Worst Case for deaths if action wasn’t taken, was estimated at 500,000.
This was less than the 1.3m estimated by NERVTAG on 21 Feb, but more than the 400,000 @neil_ferguson warned of on 14 Feb on #C4News.
This was less than the 1.3m estimated by NERVTAG on 21 Feb, but more than the 400,000 @neil_ferguson warned of on 14 Feb on #C4News.
7/. Cummings would have seen these figures when he attended his first SAGE meeting on 5 March.
Minutes of this 5/3 meeting suggest "sustained community transmission was underway” & yet inexplicably it was decided “there are no scientific grounds to moving from contain to delay”.
Minutes of this 5/3 meeting suggest "sustained community transmission was underway” & yet inexplicably it was decided “there are no scientific grounds to moving from contain to delay”.
8/. The same SAGE meeting recognized the risk facing the elderly & vulnerable & the need for “early measures” BUT inexplicably recommends there should be a delay of “roughly 2 weeks” before isolating them.
"Cocooning of older and vulnerable patients can start later."
Why?
"Cocooning of older and vulnerable patients can start later."
Why?
9/. Despite SAGE’s calls for “early measures” & claims by ministers that a “protective ring” was put around care homes, we know action wasn’t taken.
Asked about it today Vallance said:
“Care homes were flagged up very early on”....”as early as February”.
Asked about it today Vallance said:
“Care homes were flagged up very early on”....”as early as February”.
10/. "Did SAGE advise at an earlier stage that care home workers should be routinely tested?”
“I can’t remember exactly what we recommended on individual measures. I don’t know if we recommended that.”
An extraordinary admission by CSO Vallance. #COVID19
“I can’t remember exactly what we recommended on individual measures. I don’t know if we recommended that.”
An extraordinary admission by CSO Vallance. #COVID19
11/. On 13 May, I published "the smoking gun" of the #CareHomeScandal, but since then there've been more smoking guns.
In the space of a month, 25,060 people were discharged from hospital to care homes without being routinely tested for #COVID in England.
In the space of a month, 25,060 people were discharged from hospital to care homes without being routinely tested for #COVID in England.
12/. On 8 March, I stumbled into the #COVID19 scandal & have been up to my neck in it ever since.
It was clear that the country was taking the wrong path.
We knew
They knew
They knew we knew
And yet they carried on.
I call it the #HerdImmunityScandal.
It was clear that the country was taking the wrong path.
We knew
They knew
They knew we knew
And yet they carried on.
I call it the #HerdImmunityScandal.
13/. There is an expression that is key to good journalism: “follow the money”.
It means focus on the real motivations driving those who took the decisions.
It is clear that #HerdImmunity is the strategy but what is the goal.
I'm still figuring it out.
It means focus on the real motivations driving those who took the decisions.
It is clear that #HerdImmunity is the strategy but what is the goal.
I'm still figuring it out.
14/. Britain was given the greatest gift any country could have wished for in the circumstances: a two-month head start.
And yet we now have the highest death rate in the world & came 4th from bottom in a global league table of countries that have dealt with #COVID19 well.
How?
And yet we now have the highest death rate in the world & came 4th from bottom in a global league table of countries that have dealt with #COVID19 well.
How?
15/. The answer lies in the fact that the bewildering multiplicity of scandals are all part of ONE single scandal: the #HerdImmunityScandal.
This explains the late lockdown, the lack of testing, tracing, tracking, screening, facemasks, app, PPE, protection for care homes etc.
This explains the late lockdown, the lack of testing, tracing, tracking, screening, facemasks, app, PPE, protection for care homes etc.
16/. This THREAD unpacks the individual scandals (also on the @Under_Covid website undercovid.org)
SCANDAL ONE: #CareHomeScandal
Touched on👆, the govt's "no one knew about asymptomatic transmission" & "40% reduction of transfers" are debunked👇
SCANDAL ONE: #CareHomeScandal
Touched on👆, the govt's "no one knew about asymptomatic transmission" & "40% reduction of transfers" are debunked👇
17/. SCANDAL TWO: #TestingScandal
We knew at the start of March, the key to stopping the spread of #COVID19 was to "test, test, test".
So why was community testing stopped on 12 March & why have we not had details of testing numbers for almost 2 months?
We knew at the start of March, the key to stopping the spread of #COVID19 was to "test, test, test".
So why was community testing stopped on 12 March & why have we not had details of testing numbers for almost 2 months?
18/. SCANDAL THREE: #ScreeningScandal
We know now that #COVID19 was seeded in the UK by 1,356 people arriving from European countries.
Why were hundreds of thousands of people were allowed to walk into the UK from #COVID hotspots without screening?
We know now that #COVID19 was seeded in the UK by 1,356 people arriving from European countries.
Why were hundreds of thousands of people were allowed to walk into the UK from #COVID hotspots without screening?
19/. SCANDAL FOUR: #CygnusScandal
In 2016, the govt undertook Exercise Cygnus – a drill to show the UK's readiness to respond to a pandemic.
Its recommendations weren't implemented.
Ministers claim they thought they had been or try to plead ignorance.
In 2016, the govt undertook Exercise Cygnus – a drill to show the UK's readiness to respond to a pandemic.
Its recommendations weren't implemented.
Ministers claim they thought they had been or try to plead ignorance.
20/. SCANDAL FIVE: #PPEScandal
There were incomprehensible failures to source:
• proper PPE for front line NHS staff & carers;
• sufficient #COVID19 tests
• sufficient ventilators (opting out of the EU ventilator procurement scheme)
• face masks
There were incomprehensible failures to source:
• proper PPE for front line NHS staff & carers;
• sufficient #COVID19 tests
• sufficient ventilators (opting out of the EU ventilator procurement scheme)
• face masks
21/. SCANDAL SIX: #AppScandal
The PM promised of a fully operational “world beating” track & trace app by 1 June.
It was one of the govt's much touted 5 conditions to easing lockdown.
The govt now say the app it might be ready by the end of the year.
The PM promised of a fully operational “world beating” track & trace app by 1 June.
It was one of the govt's much touted 5 conditions to easing lockdown.
The govt now say the app it might be ready by the end of the year.
22/. SCANDAL SEVEN: #SAGEScandal
Despite claiming to be "following" or "guided" entirely by the science the govt's #COVID19 strategy excluded public health experts entirely, manipulated scientists & in July sidelined SAGE altogether. See #SAGEGate
Despite claiming to be "following" or "guided" entirely by the science the govt's #COVID19 strategy excluded public health experts entirely, manipulated scientists & in July sidelined SAGE altogether. See #SAGEGate
23/. SCANDAL EIGHT: #HomeCareScandal
The same number of people work in home care as in care homes but whilst the #CareHomeScandal is widley reported there has been little exposure od the appalling situation facing hundreds of thousands treated at home.
The same number of people work in home care as in care homes but whilst the #CareHomeScandal is widley reported there has been little exposure od the appalling situation facing hundreds of thousands treated at home.
24/. SCANDAL NINE: #MediaScandal
At times of national crisis, it is vital that false or misleading information isn't disseminated. But attempting to stop the media scrutinizing govt strategy through draconian & more subtle methods raises serious concerns.
At times of national crisis, it is vital that false or misleading information isn't disseminated. But attempting to stop the media scrutinizing govt strategy through draconian & more subtle methods raises serious concerns.
Why did #DominicCummings attend this meeting on 5 March & not earlier SAGE meetings?
Was it because this was the one in which policy decisions would be made: i.e. whether or not take action to stop the spread of #COVID19. #HerdImmunityScandal
Was it because this was the one in which policy decisions would be made: i.e. whether or not take action to stop the spread of #COVID19. #HerdImmunityScandal
25/. SCANDAL TEN: #CoverupScandal
This scandal is certain to grow.
Evidence is withheld or goes missing, key figures “can’t recalll” key facts or dates & new versions of events are invented (e.g. claim that “no body knew about asymptomatic transmission).
This scandal is certain to grow.
Evidence is withheld or goes missing, key figures “can’t recalll” key facts or dates & new versions of events are invented (e.g. claim that “no body knew about asymptomatic transmission).
26/. SCANDAL ELEVEN:
#HerdImmunityScandal
This is the over-arching scandal to which all the others are linked.
But the #HerdImmunity scandal is itself part of much bigger scandal that I will come onto later. #COVID19 #COVID #coronavirus #COVID__19
#HerdImmunityScandal
This is the over-arching scandal to which all the others are linked.
But the #HerdImmunity scandal is itself part of much bigger scandal that I will come onto later. #COVID19 #COVID #coronavirus #COVID__19
27/. SCANDAL TWELVE: #ModellingScandal
There are several scandals around the modelling which demonstrate why it is so crucial that the govt do not make the same mistakes.
Their modelling for a 2nd wave & future spikes must be shared transparently ASAP.
There are several scandals around the modelling which demonstrate why it is so crucial that the govt do not make the same mistakes.
Their modelling for a 2nd wave & future spikes must be shared transparently ASAP.
