Thread by @SwissRamble

Following yesterday’s UEFA Champions League final, I can update the estimate for the 2019/20 revenue distributions. We will also explain how #PSG are likely to receive more money than #FCBayern, even though they were defeated on the night.

Based on my assumptions, the top 10 TV earnings from the Champions League will be as follows: #PSG €134m, #FCBayern €130m, #FCBarcelona €104m, #MCFC €99m, #Atleti €95m, #TeamOL €89m, #Juventus €87m, #RealMadrid €84m, #CFC €81m and #LFC €80m.

Looking at how Champions League revenue is distributed in the current cycle, the importance of the UEFA coefficient is evident. TV pool is much less important than it was before. This rewards historically successful clubs rather than those with larger national TV rights deals.

Each of the 32 clubs that qualify for the Champions League group stage receive a sizeable participation fee of €15.25m. This has increased by 20% from €12.7m in the previous broadcast cycle (up to 2017/18 season).

Naturally, #FCBayern earned highest prize money of €68.8m, as they won all 6 games in group stage, worth €16.2m (€2.7m for each win), plus €1.6m for a share of money left after draws, plus €9.5m, €10.5m, €12m & €19m for last 16, quarter-finals, semi-finals and winners.

UEFA coefficient is based on performances over 10 years in Europe, including bonus points for winning UEFA tournaments. The €585m pot is divided into shares with each worth €1.108m, so the highest ranked club (Real Madrid) gets €35.5m, while Slavia Prague only get €1.1m.

TV pool assumes total payments by country are the same as 2018/19. On this basis, #PSG have received the most with €27m (French pool only shared between 3 clubs), followed by #MCFC €24m, #FCBarcelona €21m and #LFC €18m. #FCBayern only received €13m, due to small German pool.

As a result, #PSG €134m is actually €4m higher than winners #FCBayern €130m. Although the Germans earn €6m more prize money and €4m from a higher UEFA coefficient, the French club’s TV pool is €14m higher.

The German TV pool is currently the lowest of the Big Five leagues, but this anomaly should disappear in future, as the German TV rights will rise by 70% in the 2021-24 cycle with three separate deals (DAZN, Amazon and ZDF) replacing Sky Deutschland.

The highest placed clubs from countries outside the Big Five leagues are #Benfica €52m (17th), #Ajax 48m (18th), Shakhtar Donetsk €44m (20th), Zenit Saint Petersburg €42m (21st), Red Bull Salzburg €36m (24th), Olympiacos €35m (25th) and Galatasaray €30m (26th).

Caveats: (a) TV pool based on last season’s numbers; (b) TV pool assumes distribution will not be impacted by single game ties from quarter-finals onwards; (c) it is very likely that there will be reductions in the standard distribution arising from rebates to TV companies.