So much said about #China as an emerging lender to Africa (& globally). But there are others worth a mention who've increased their lending to African governments: #SaudiArabia#India#Kuwait#Brazil#UAE Thread. 1/7
Data been hard to find, but International Debt Statistics, published by @WorldBank just now, show external debt by creditor country. See large growth over past decade (since widespread debt relief). #China by far largest but others' growth important (especially Gulf lenders) 2/7
This often followed by point that it makes solving debt problems harder. As more creditors, not in the Paris Club, with exposure. True, but there's also a positive in African countries being able to source more capital from more places. Needs to be used well of course 3/7
Interesting to see where different emerging creditors focus their lending. Gulf lenders (absent #Qatar as still no data) focus on #Egypt, but #Sudan#Tunisia#Mauritania make up the top 5. Ties to other muslim countries appear important 4/7
Most Gulf lending is at commercial interest rates, some concessional. Large concessional loans of note to #Sudan#Mauritania#Senegal from Kuwait & Saudi Arabia 5/7
For #China most exposure to #Angola#Congo (oil-backed loans) & countries on western edge of the maritime belt&road: #Ethiopia#Kenya. Still #Egypt gets a good share (& #Zambia is 6th largest Africa exposure for China) 7/7 end
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G20 has driven momentum on a standstill of debt repayments for the poorest countries. Necessary in this time of crisis. A thread of a few important points from yesterday's statement g20.org/en/media/Docum… 1/n
G20 pledged for “time-bound suspension of debt service payments for the poorest countries that request forbearance”. What’s 100% included? Both principal repayments & interest payments. So far official bilateral debt (ie country to country lending). 2/n
Key development yesterday is “all bilateral official creditors will participate” so crucially China looks to be onboard (had typically done bespoke non-coord debt relief before). Grown over past decade to be large creditor to lower-income countries 3/n
Was manic day in the markets yesterday. But amid the chaos #Tanzania strolled quietly away from global debt mkts, having dipped their toes for 7 years. So now 20, not 21, African countries in the eurobond mkt. Story as 6* thread
As far back as 2008 Tz was seeking credit ratings & was anticipation might be issuing a eurobond. Most expected standard eurobond (eg 10 year maturity with fixed coupon, the norm then) but Tz decided to do own thing
Hired only Standard Bank & in Feb-13 made private placement of floating rate notes (LIBOR +600bpts). $600mn issued, 7-year life. Amortizing along way (9 semi-annual installments) so ave life was 5 years.
1. #Angola gov making reform progress but still much to do if debt risks to be contained. Some necessary reforms unpopular & risk of pushing too hard as economy recovery fragile. Need time to shift economy from oil & to jobs but time not on Angola’s side. Recent trip thread 1/10
2. Key areas reform for investors to watch 1/ FX. 2/ Balancing budget & stabilising debt. 3/ Privatisation program. Each important to gov & for keeping $3.7bn IMF program on-track (crucial for eurobond investors & China’s exposure). S&P has #Angola on a B- rating with neg outlook
3. FX big hurdle to non-oil business. Depreciation since devaluation. More market-based allocation but hard to get letter of credit needed to access FX (most firms import inputs). Official & parallel rate gap had narrowed but recently widened. Now official AOA364/$, parallel=~535