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Sanju Verma Profile picture
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13 Jan, 4 tweets, 3 min read
CPI@ 4.59% in Dec Vs 6.93% in Nov'20;It is for first time in current fiscal that #CPI,below 6%

In Jan2021,CPI may be lower than RBI forecast of 5.8%,which is good news

#CoreCPI in Dec,5.65% Vs 5.84% MoM

Money market rates,lower than #ReverseRepo,implying low rates here to stay
#FoodInflation 3.41% in Dec,Vs 9.43% in Nov

Vegetable Inflation@ -10.41% Vs 15.63%💪

Fuel&Light Inflation@ 2.99% Vs 1.90%

Housing Inflation@3.21% Vs 3.19%

Clothing&Footwear Inflation@ 3.49% Vs 3.30%

Cereal Inflation@0.98% Vs 2.32% (MoM)

Pulses Inflation@15.98% Vs 17.91%
Apart from #Tesla registering with RoC,big news is,IRFC's IPO of 4600Cr;opens on 18th Jan,in price band of 25-26

#IRFC,set up in 1986,is first NBFC in PSU sector,to go public

#IRCTC listed on 14thOct'19 at Rs644,a 101% premium to book price of 320&has been a huge wealth creator
Cabinet likely to approve today auction of 500 #MineralMines by amending MMDR's 10A 2(b)&2(c)

No addnl royalty for transfer of Captive&Merchant #Mines,Stamp duty rationalisation&no distinction between Captive&non Captive mines,key features

#MiningReforms by @narendramodi govt💪

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Sanju Verma Profile picture
14 Jan
#Fitch,last year said,in FY22,India's #GDP growth will be in 8.5-9.5% range,but has now upgraded it's forecast,saying India under @narendramodi,will grow by solid 11% in 2021-22💪

GDP growth estimates for India in FY22 👇
IMF 8.8%
Nomura 9.9%
India Ratings 9.9%
Goldman Sachs 13%
Fitch,while lauding Modi Govt said,India is unusual among EMs,in having secured pre-orders of various vaccines,sufficient to cover a population-wide programme,having pre-ordered 1.6 billion vaccine doses,including 500 mln of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine through a local producer
M&M expects Tractor industry to grow between 17-19% in FY22;If overall #AutoIndustry grows by 15-20%,cascading effect on GDP growth,will be superior

After stellar Nos by TCS,#Infosys also reported solid 16.6% YoY rise in consol net profit at 5197Cr for Dec qtr
#Economy #Earnings
Read 6 tweets
Sanju Verma Profile picture
10 Dec 20
#Nomura says,India will be fastest growing Asian economy in FY22,with GDP growth of 9.9;GDP growth to be 32.4% in 1QFY22&10.2% in 2QFY22

Fee weeks back #GoldmanSachs had upgraded India's GDP growth forecast from 10% to 13% for FY22

#IMF is at 8.8%& #Moody's at 8.6%

#Modinomics
Few
@narendramodi govt's decision to sell 20% in IRCTC at base price of Rs 1367,via #OFS tomr,is a great move

1367 is,15.5% discount to Wednesday's closing of Rs1618;52 week high&low is Rs 1995 &775

#IRCTC got listed last yr&was subscribed a whopping 112x

GoI owns 87.4% stake
Read 10 tweets
Sanju Verma Profile picture
7 Dec 20
RBI credit policy on 4thDec raised GDP forecast for FY21,from minus 9.5% to minus 7.5%;GDP growth will turn +ve in Q3 at 0.1%&0.7% in Q4

Remarkable speed of the turnaround amidst worst pandemic in 102yrs has lots to do with @narendramodi govt's blistering pace of Agri #Reforms💪
CPI in Sep&Oct'20 came in at 7.3%&7.6% and that is precisely why RBI did not lower rates&rightfully so

WPI came at 1.32%&1.48% in Sep&Oct 2020

Supply disruptions&labour shortages,key reasons for high CPI

CPI will fall to 6.8% in Dec&5.8% in Jan2021

Accommodative stance by RBI
Inflation target for 1HFY22 by RBI has been kept@4.6-5.2% range

Core inflation is sticky,feeding into high inflationary expectations but resumption of normality will ease supply bottlenecks&ease #Core

#Accommodative stance leaves window open for rate cuts,albeit not immediately
Read 5 tweets
Sanju Verma Profile picture
25 Nov 20
Sensex at 44000+,Nifty at 13000+ & #BankNifty at 9 month high of 30000+💪

Amongst top gainers in rally are SBI,ICICI Bank&Axis Bank;549% rise in Profit in #ICICIBank,reinforces, rally is not just liquidity driven,but excellent Sep qtr results have played big role

#EconomyRising
SBI reported PAT of 4574.16Cr in Sep'20 qtr,up 52% YoY&9% QoQ

Note,most analysts were not expecting SBI to clock profit of more than 2100 or 2200Cr

PBT for #SBI came at 6341.45Cr,up 25.33%,YoY&14.3%,QoQ

Operating profit was up 12% at 16460Cr in Q2FY21

#EconomyRising #Banks
#SBI is not any other Bank;It is biggest Bank in India,accounting for one fourth of India's lending activity, so great results by SBI,signify, #EconomyRising

NII at 28182Cr,up 5.7%,QoQ

NIMs up 12bps YoY at 3.34%

GNPA in Sep Qtr fell to 5.28% Vs 5.44% in June qtr,with NPAs down
Read 7 tweets
Sanju Verma Profile picture
25 Oct 20
My Oped of 4300 words in @eOrganiser analyses post-2005, high growth era,with GSDP@ 11.3%, with the Jungle Raaj in Bihar,in the pre-2005 era,when GSDP was just 3.19%--I dissect Bihar's economic rise from a #Bimaru State,to being an over 7 lakh Cr economy

organiser.org/Encyc/2020/10/…
Length of intermediate lanes in Bihar was 1705 km till 2005;it rose to 5654km under NDA,with rapid progress in last few yrs,thx to @narendramodi 💪

Similarly 15 years ago,length of seven metre wide,double-lane State highway was 107km,which rose to 4429 km under #NDA
#BiharPolls
Both Central&State govts allotted Rs 2672Cr in past 3yrs for constructing road network of 1636 km&75 bridges in 5 extremist-hit districts of Bihar

Under #RJD,#Bihar was a den of Maoist led #Naxalism,but under #NDA,it has become an aspirational, growth centric State

#BiharPolls
Read 4 tweets
Sanju Verma Profile picture
13 Oct 20
One-time disbursement of Special #FestivalAdvance,to amount to Rs4000Cr

If given by all state govts,another 8000Cr is expected to be disbursed& employees can spend on any festival

Interest free advance of Rs 10000 under #SpecialFestivalAdvance,to be paid back in 10 instalments
Govt employees will get pre loaded #Rupay card of advance value&scheme will be available till March 31st 2021,for #FestivalAdvance scheme

For #LTCCashVoucher scheme,cost will be Rs 5675Cr for central govt employees who opt for it,leading to demand infusion of 19000Cr
#DemandPush
For PSUs&PSB employees who opt for #LTCCashVoucher,cost will be Rs1900Cr&demand infusion will be for 9000Cr

To avail of #LTCCashVoucher,you have to buy goods with #GST of 12% or more,via digital modes

With #COVID19 derailing travel plans,cash voucher in lieu of LTC,a good move
Read 5 tweets

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