Sanju Verma Profile picture
National Spokesperson of BJPl EconomistlMBA FinancelRanked in AsiamoneylEx JPMorgan& HDFCSec lColumnistlBest Selling Authorl Truth&Dare-The Modi DynamiclThinker
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28 Apr
Spate of Q4FY21 results showcase #Economy is on track

#ICICIBank reported Profit of Rs4402Cr,a 260% jump YoY,with NII up a solid 16.8% at 10431Cr

Tech companies have done well,with #TechMahindra reporting Dollar Revenue growth of 1.6% QoQ &Margins up 10bps at 16%
#Modinomics💪
#HCLTech also reported good numbers with Dollar Revenue up 3% QoQ

IT&Business Services segment grew 4.4% QoQ

Even for #MarutiSuzuki,while Profit fell,it managed to have Gross Margins at 26%,Vs 27.5% QoQ

Margin above 25% despite challenges thrown by Pandemic,is good
#Modinomics
In Banking space,besides great results by #HDFCBank& #ICICIBank, #AxisBank too reported good results, with Profit at Rs2677Cr,Vs loss of 1388Cr,YoY

While Gross&Net NPAs of Axis rose 15%&52% YoY,with Provisions down 28%,good news is NII is up 11% at Rs7555Cr

#Economy #Modinomics
Read 5 tweets
18 Apr
Big news this week on economic front has been,inclusion of Healthcare sector under @narendramodi govt's ECLGS scheme,which gives collateral free loans to MSMEs

India reporting $20bn Trade surplus with USA,in goods&$8bn in Services,bodes well too

RBI had 25000Cr auction of GSAP
Excellent move by RBI to refuse to sell securities to PDs or even allow devolution--result was,10yr bond yield that shot up to 6.13% on Thursday,on day of GSAP auction,quickly cooled off to 6.07%,by Friday

Short sellers were trapped by RBI,preventing any hardening of yield curve
Fact that economy is on track, endorsed by solid Q4 results from #HDFCBank,with Profit up 18% at Rs 8186Cr&NII up 12% YoY,at 17120Cr

Deposits up 16%
Advances up 14%;Wholesale Loans up 22%

NIM came at a good 4.2%

GrossNPA down to 1.32% from 1.38% QoQ,while NetNPA steady at 0.4%
Read 6 tweets
16 Mar
India's Exports (Merchandise &Services) in April-Feb FY21,are $439.64bn,down 10.14%,YoY

Imports in April-Feb FY21 are $447.44bn,down 20.83%

But in Dec'20,Jan&Feb'21,#Exports started picking up,with Feb growth at 0.67%&2.46% in Dollar &Rupee terms

Export growth in Dec was 5.37%
Exports in Feb'21 were $27.93bn,Vs $27.74bn in Feb20,up 0.67%

In Rupee terms,Exports were Rs 2.03 lakh Cr in Feb'21,up 2.46%

Imports in Feb were $40.54bn/Rs 2.95 lakh Cr,up 6.96% in Dollar terms &8.86% in Rupee terms,YoY

Trade Deficit in Feb21 was $12.88bn,Vs $10.16bn in Feb20
Interestingly,in April-Feb 2020-21,TradeDeficit is only $7.80bn,Vs deficit of $75.90bn in April-Febr 2019-20

Merchandise #TradeDeficit of $12.62bn in Feb21 is much lower Vs $14.54bn in Jan21

Lower Trade deficit in FY21,not due to slowdown alone,but due to better terms of trade
Read 6 tweets
5 Feb
RBI Governor leaving Repo unchanged at 4%,ReverseRepo@ 3.35%&Marginal StandingFacility@ 4.25%,on expected lines

Interestingly,MPC voted for status quo unanimously,which is good news

GDP growth projected at 10.5% in FY22,Vs Modi Govt's projection of 11%&IMF's 11.5%
#CreditPolicy
Despite a massive Rs 12 lakh Cr of govt borrowings estimated in FY22,the good thing is,weighted average cost of funds has been 5.78%,so @narendramodi govt will be able to borrow at competitive rates

Accommodative Stance by RBI Governor,bodes well

Reserve money rose by 14.5% YoY
Enough #Liquidity there in system,in LAF window,with banks provided addnl liquidity of Rs 1.53 lakh Cr

Hence,#CRR will be hiked back to 3.5% from 27th March 2021&to 4% from 22nd May,2021

For 1HFY22,#Inflation projected at 5-5.2%,from earlier range of 4.6-5.2%

#RBICreditPolicy
Read 6 tweets
4 Feb
Critics have asked,wrt #Budget2021, how will @narendramodi govt manage finances

Well,for every rupee in govt coffers, 53paise will come from direct& indirect taxes,36p from borrowings &other liabilities,6p from non-tax revenue like disinvestment&5p from non-debt capital receipts
GST will contribute 15paise in every rupee revenue,corporate tax will contribute 13paise to each rupee earned;8paise for every rupee,will come from union excise duty,3paise from customs duty&income tax will yield 14paise to every rupee collected

Fiscal math has been worked out💪
On #Expenditure side,biggest outlay is for interest payments at 20paise for every rupee,followed by States' share of taxes&duties@16paise

Allocation for #Defence is 8paise &Expense on Central schemes is 14p, while allocation for Central schemes is 9paise

#Budget2021 #Modinomics
Read 6 tweets
1 Feb
Excellent #Budget2021 by @narendramodi govt

16.5 lakh Cr Agri Credit allocation&Rs 1.18 lakh Cr for roads

Massive 34.5% rise Capital Spending at 5.54 lakh Cr

137% rise in Health budget

Income Tax scrutiny reduced from 6 to 3 yrs;No Double taxation of NRIs

#Growth,the focus
Hike in Insurance #FDI from 49% to 74%,pro #Reforms💪

#Dividend income invested In InvITs &REITs,tax free

No advance tax liability on Dividend income

#LIC IPO--BIG

#Disinvestment of BPCL,Pawan Hans,Air India,Concor,IDBI,Beml, Shipping Corp--BIG

64180Cr #Healthcare budget-BIG
5 Mega #Fishing harbours

7 Mega #Textile Parks

Agri Infra Fund to be available to #APMCs

Voluntary #VehicleScrapping policy

20000Cr #Recapitalisation of PSBs

#ARC to take over stressed assets

7 Port projects to be developed via PPP

18000Cr for Bus Transport
#Modinomics💪
Read 9 tweets
30 Jan
PSU giant #SAIL reported 1468Cr profit in Dec'20 qtr Vs loss of 344Cr in Dec'19 qtr,showcasing strength of #EconomicRecovery,in Construction, Infra,Autos,Manufacturing

Hot Steel&Saleable Steel production rose by 12%&6% YoY,respectively

Ebitda rose by massive 346%,to Rs 5294Cr💪
#Larsen&Toubro's 76% YoY rise in Order Book in Dec'20 qtr,vindicates speed with which Infra projects are scaling up,under @narendramodi govt

Order book of L&T at Rs 3.31 lakh Cr in Dec'20 qtr,is up 9%,Vs March'20 qtr,which means Infra space is doing better than pre-#COVID levels
Despite a global #pandemic, L&T,which is a proxy to how #Infra space in India is doing,saw new order inflows of a massive 73233Cr, in just a single qtr of Dec'20💪

Segment-wise,Infra secured #Orders of 45574Cr,rise of 80% YoY, with receipt of two marquee orders of #HighSpeedRail
Read 5 tweets
26 Jan
IMF today revised India's GDP growth forecast for FY22 from 8.8% to 11.5%,making it fastest growing global economy

#IMF listed India as only major economy of the world to register double-digit growth in FY22,thx to pathbreaking reforms&mega vaccine roll out by @narendramodi govt
For CY21/FY22,while IMF projects 11.5% for India,it says global GDP will grow by only 5.5%

Advanced economies to grow by just 4.3%&EMs by 6.3%

China@ 8%,Spain@5.9%&France with GDP growth of 5.5%,are the other projections

India's rebound under @narendramodi govt,to be fastest
L&T,#EPC behemoth, reported 17% rise in Profit,with margins up 80bps at 12%

Worth noting that L&T's order book at Rs 3.31 lakh Cr,is up a massive 76% YoY&the highest that it has ever reported in a quarter

Strong order inflows despite #COVID19,shows capex cycle is turning around
Read 5 tweets
22 Jan
Against market expectations of 753Cr loss,#YesBank reports profit of Rs 151Cr,with NII growth of solid 31%

Gross NPAs down 8.6% QoQ
Net NPAs down 12.8%

What a brilliant turnaround,thx to timely action by @narendramodi govt

Note:Yes reported Profit despite Provisions up by 85%
#TataMotors reports highest ever PV sales in Dec'20 qtr,in 33 quarters

Ditto with #JSWSteel,which,despite input inflation,recorded highest ever Q3 sales,in its history

#Infosys recently reported Constant Currency growth of 5.3%,in Dec qtr,highest ever in 8 yrs
#EconomicRecovery
#JSWSteel numbers are pretty interesting

Profit at 2669Cr in Dec Qtr,up a massive 1327% YoY

Revenue up 21%,with Ebitda/tonne in excess of Rs13000

Ebitda at 5946Cr,up a solid 143%

Margins at 27.2%,up a whopping 1360bps

And all this,despite global headwinds
#EconomicRecovery💪
Read 5 tweets
21 Jan
Sensex scripting history today,by breaching 50000 for 1st time,is vindication of investor faith in @narendramodi gov

#Sensex,from 40000 on Oct8'20 to 50000 in just 74 sessions&from 45000 on Nov4'20 to 50K today,in 32 trading days,reflects economic momentum

Modi naysayers,quiet!
When #StockMarket plummeted to lows of 25000 at peak of #COVID19 crisis,few had envisaged such meteoric rise from index's 3yr low

Plethora of factors fuelled rally

Liquidity push,FII buying,good corporate earnings,mega vaccine roll out&economic traction under @narendramodi govt
Rs 4633 Cr #IRFC IPO has been subscribed 3.49x on final day of 3 day bidding process;Issue received bids for 435 Crore equity shares as against offered size of 124Cr equity shares

35% of #IPO reserved for #Retail investors,saw 3.53x subscription, with #QIB oversubscribed 3.78x💪
Read 7 tweets
14 Jan
#Fitch,last year said,in FY22,India's #GDP growth will be in 8.5-9.5% range,but has now upgraded it's forecast,saying India under @narendramodi,will grow by solid 11% in 2021-22💪

GDP growth estimates for India in FY22 👇
IMF 8.8%
Nomura 9.9%
India Ratings 9.9%
Goldman Sachs 13%
Fitch,while lauding Modi Govt said,India is unusual among EMs,in having secured pre-orders of various vaccines,sufficient to cover a population-wide programme,having pre-ordered 1.6 billion vaccine doses,including 500 mln of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine through a local producer
M&M expects Tractor industry to grow between 17-19% in FY22;If overall #AutoIndustry grows by 15-20%,cascading effect on GDP growth,will be superior

After stellar Nos by TCS,#Infosys also reported solid 16.6% YoY rise in consol net profit at 5197Cr for Dec qtr
#Economy #Earnings
Read 6 tweets
13 Jan
CPI@ 4.59% in Dec Vs 6.93% in Nov'20;It is for first time in current fiscal that #CPI,below 6%

In Jan2021,CPI may be lower than RBI forecast of 5.8%,which is good news

#CoreCPI in Dec,5.65% Vs 5.84% MoM

Money market rates,lower than #ReverseRepo,implying low rates here to stay
#FoodInflation 3.41% in Dec,Vs 9.43% in Nov

Vegetable Inflation@ -10.41% Vs 15.63%💪

Fuel&Light Inflation@ 2.99% Vs 1.90%

Housing Inflation@3.21% Vs 3.19%

Clothing&Footwear Inflation@ 3.49% Vs 3.30%

Cereal Inflation@0.98% Vs 2.32% (MoM)

Pulses Inflation@15.98% Vs 17.91%
Apart from #Tesla registering with RoC,big news is,IRFC's IPO of 4600Cr;opens on 18th Jan,in price band of 25-26

#IRFC,set up in 1986,is first NBFC in PSU sector,to go public

#IRCTC listed on 14thOct'19 at Rs644,a 101% premium to book price of 320&has been a huge wealth creator
Read 4 tweets
10 Dec 20
#Nomura says,India will be fastest growing Asian economy in FY22,with GDP growth of 9.9;GDP growth to be 32.4% in 1QFY22&10.2% in 2QFY22

Fee weeks back #GoldmanSachs had upgraded India's GDP growth forecast from 10% to 13% for FY22

#IMF is at 8.8%& #Moody's at 8.6%

#Modinomics
Few
@narendramodi govt's decision to sell 20% in IRCTC at base price of Rs 1367,via #OFS tomr,is a great move

1367 is,15.5% discount to Wednesday's closing of Rs1618;52 week high&low is Rs 1995 &775

#IRCTC got listed last yr&was subscribed a whopping 112x

GoI owns 87.4% stake
Read 10 tweets
7 Dec 20
RBI credit policy on 4thDec raised GDP forecast for FY21,from minus 9.5% to minus 7.5%;GDP growth will turn +ve in Q3 at 0.1%&0.7% in Q4

Remarkable speed of the turnaround amidst worst pandemic in 102yrs has lots to do with @narendramodi govt's blistering pace of Agri #Reforms💪
CPI in Sep&Oct'20 came in at 7.3%&7.6% and that is precisely why RBI did not lower rates&rightfully so

WPI came at 1.32%&1.48% in Sep&Oct 2020

Supply disruptions&labour shortages,key reasons for high CPI

CPI will fall to 6.8% in Dec&5.8% in Jan2021

Accommodative stance by RBI
Inflation target for 1HFY22 by RBI has been kept@4.6-5.2% range

Core inflation is sticky,feeding into high inflationary expectations but resumption of normality will ease supply bottlenecks&ease #Core

#Accommodative stance leaves window open for rate cuts,albeit not immediately
Read 5 tweets
25 Nov 20
Sensex at 44000+,Nifty at 13000+ & #BankNifty at 9 month high of 30000+💪

Amongst top gainers in rally are SBI,ICICI Bank&Axis Bank;549% rise in Profit in #ICICIBank,reinforces, rally is not just liquidity driven,but excellent Sep qtr results have played big role

#EconomyRising
SBI reported PAT of 4574.16Cr in Sep'20 qtr,up 52% YoY&9% QoQ

Note,most analysts were not expecting SBI to clock profit of more than 2100 or 2200Cr

PBT for #SBI came at 6341.45Cr,up 25.33%,YoY&14.3%,QoQ

Operating profit was up 12% at 16460Cr in Q2FY21

#EconomyRising #Banks
#SBI is not any other Bank;It is biggest Bank in India,accounting for one fourth of India's lending activity, so great results by SBI,signify, #EconomyRising

NII at 28182Cr,up 5.7%,QoQ

NIMs up 12bps YoY at 3.34%

GNPA in Sep Qtr fell to 5.28% Vs 5.44% in June qtr,with NPAs down
Read 7 tweets
25 Oct 20
My Oped of 4300 words in @eOrganiser analyses post-2005, high growth era,with GSDP@ 11.3%, with the Jungle Raaj in Bihar,in the pre-2005 era,when GSDP was just 3.19%--I dissect Bihar's economic rise from a #Bimaru State,to being an over 7 lakh Cr economy

organiser.org/Encyc/2020/10/…
Length of intermediate lanes in Bihar was 1705 km till 2005;it rose to 5654km under NDA,with rapid progress in last few yrs,thx to @narendramodi 💪

Similarly 15 years ago,length of seven metre wide,double-lane State highway was 107km,which rose to 4429 km under #NDA
#BiharPolls
Both Central&State govts allotted Rs 2672Cr in past 3yrs for constructing road network of 1636 km&75 bridges in 5 extremist-hit districts of Bihar

Under #RJD,#Bihar was a den of Maoist led #Naxalism,but under #NDA,it has become an aspirational, growth centric State

#BiharPolls
Read 4 tweets
13 Oct 20
One-time disbursement of Special #FestivalAdvance,to amount to Rs4000Cr

If given by all state govts,another 8000Cr is expected to be disbursed& employees can spend on any festival

Interest free advance of Rs 10000 under #SpecialFestivalAdvance,to be paid back in 10 instalments
Govt employees will get pre loaded #Rupay card of advance value&scheme will be available till March 31st 2021,for #FestivalAdvance scheme

For #LTCCashVoucher scheme,cost will be Rs 5675Cr for central govt employees who opt for it,leading to demand infusion of 19000Cr
#DemandPush
For PSUs&PSB employees who opt for #LTCCashVoucher,cost will be Rs1900Cr&demand infusion will be for 9000Cr

To avail of #LTCCashVoucher,you have to buy goods with #GST of 12% or more,via digital modes

With #COVID19 derailing travel plans,cash voucher in lieu of LTC,a good move
Read 5 tweets
12 Oct 20
#RetailInflation in Sep@7.34%,Vs 6.69% in Aug,is due to rise in food price index which rose from 9.05% to 10.68%,MoM

Uptick in #foodinflation is temporary &driven by #COVID related supply disruptions--We had bumper crop last year&FY21,should see bumper agri production,yet again!
By Dec,#CPI should ease& inflationary pressure will abate,due to #BaseEffect& #Kharif arrivals

Note:Kharif sowing was up between 50-88%,for most crops,despite #lockdown

With INR@73.11/$ level,threat of imported inflation is minimal

#CoreInflation at sub 6%,bodes well
#economy
#IIP contraction in Aug at 8% Vs 10.8% in July,is driven by relatively better numbers from #Mining& #ConsumerNonDurables

After record #ManufacturingPMI of 56.8 in Sep,#ServicesPMI at 49.8 Vs 41.8 in Aug,is a good sign💪

#TradeDeficit in Sep@ $2.9 Vs $10.9,in Sep2019,bodes well
Read 5 tweets
10 Oct 20
Banks have sanctioned Rs 1.87 lakh Cr,to 50.7 lakh units under the Rs 3-lakh crore Emergency Credit Line Guarantee Scheme,#ECLGS,of @narendramodi govt💪

Rs 1.36 lakh Cr has been disbursed to over 27 lakh units in #MSME sector,impacted by slowdown caused by #coronavirus pandemic
Ambit of scheme,expanded to include #MSMEs with turnover of up to Rs 250Cr&individuals for business purposes

As of 5thOct2020,Rs 17460Cr of loans to individuals have been sanctioned,of which 5939Cr has been disbursed

#ECLGS scheme is a big success
#EconomicRecovery #GreenShoots
As many as 33 stranded housing projects with investment of 4197Cr accorded final approval under #SWAMIH scheme

Special window for Affordable&Mid Income Housing Fund #SWAMIH,is working at fast pace to provide relief to 25048 homeowners
#EconomicRecoveryOnTrack #ECLGS #GreenShoots
Read 4 tweets
9 Oct 20
#RBIPolicy's key highlights

Mood shifting from fear&despair,to hope

Rural economy is resilient

20000Cr OMO slated for 15thOct

RBI to conduct Rs 1 lakhCr #TLTRO,to further augment liquidity

Inflation to ease from Q4
GDP to enter +ve territory from Q4

#Dovish Policy,overall👍
Ample liquidity prevented RBI from reducing #REPO,which has been retained at 4%

Also,inflationary pressures,prevented any further reduction in rates,at this stage

@narendramodi govt completed its 1st half borrowing for FY21 at only 5.82%,lowest in 16 yrs,which is great news💪
Two takeaways from what RBI Governor said&that merit more attention,are

Risk weights will be assigned to all #HomeLoans henceforth,in relation to loan to value ratio,to de-risk home loans

Market operations to be allowed for State Development Loans,#SDLs,to ease States' finances
Read 4 tweets
7 Oct 20
As @narendramodi ji completes 20 remarkable yrs of being at the helm,it is time to re-plug my book #TruthandDare,which captures everything--from the #Gujarat model of development,which saw 15% growth in 2005-06,to new age #Modinomics,which has lifted over 75mn people from poverty
Price of #NaturalGas will be determined by market forces,to increase affordability👇

It will debottleneck E&P sector& make e-bidding,competitive &transparent

Will reduce demand-supply anomalies&imports

Bridge Trade deficit in Oil&gas

#CabinetDecisions by @narendramodi govt💪
Another decision by @narendramodi gov is the approval for 16.6km Kolkata East West rail corridor,that will connect Howrah on West Bank of Hoogly river,with Salt Lake City on East bank

Total project cost,8575Cr;will boost mass transit system&be ready by Dec2021
#CabinetDecisions
Read 8 tweets