Thread by @SamRamani2

Why is the conflict in #Russia and #Ukraine heating up again?

Three factors stand out:

1) Testing Joe Biden

2) Russian Domestic Politics

3) The Dynamics of Russia-Ukraine Bilateral Relations

This thread explains whats happening in Ukraine

[THREAD]

First of all, tensions between Russia and Ukraine have steadily grown since late January.

At least 20 Ukrainian service members have died in clashes.

The current escalation follows an alarming trend of rising hostilities.

In Washington, Russia's actions in Donbas are often viewed as a test of the Biden administration's resolve

Sensing this, the Biden administration has firmly backed Ukraine

The US cannot deter Russia's incursions, but can use targeted sanctions on Russia and sell arms to Ukraine

Russian domestic politics is both an enabling and limiting factor in Moscow's Donbas calculations.

The 2021 Duma elections are coming up in September, which could cause Russia to create a siege mentality at home.

Russia's comments on extremism in #Georgia show this too.

However, the eroding popularity of endless wars in Russia and calls from Russian academics for restraint in the post-Soviet space could limit Moscow's response.

A temporary escalation in Donbas is much more likely than a massive push westward in Ukraine.

Finally, Russia is alarmed by Ukraine's growing arms and wheat exports, as well as its security collaboration with NATO countries, such as drone production with #Turkey.

Undermining Ukrainian sovereignty and throwing Ukraine off balance is a key Russian objective.

So tensions between Russia and Ukraine are not just about Biden and electoral politics.

The atmosphere of heightened insecurity in Donbas could linger for some time.