GLOBAL RUSSIA ROUNDUP:

As Joe Biden's inauguration nears, U.S.-Russia tensions are rising.

#Russia is also expanding its military presence in the Central African Republic and carrying out provocative military drills with #China.

Read about this and more in today's roundup!
1) Sergei Lavrov described US sanctions today as "hostile" and vowed to retaliate.

Visa restrictions appear to be #Russia's retaliation of choice.

But rhetoric is getting caustic, as a Russian central bank official warned of US sanctions causing the collapse of the US dollar.
2) Donald Trump accused #Egypt of taking US aid to purchase arms from #Russia.

Now that S-400 sanctions have been imposed on #Turkey, Egypt's military links with Russia could gain more scrutiny in the US.

This could force Egypt to rely more on #France for arms.
3) #Colombia has expelled 2 Russian diplomats for espionage.

As Latin American countries enthusiastically try out #Russia's Sputnik V vaccine, Moscow's influence in the region has moved from strength to strength.

This is a rare setback in Russia's advances in Latin America.
4) #Russia's military intervention in the Central African Republic is expanding with 300 new troops.

Russia has an immediate challenge in CAR, as rebels have seized control over Bambari.

It will be interesting if these forces stay in #CAR beyond the December 27 elections.
5) #Russia and #China carried out joint air force drills in the Pacific region, prompting alarm in #Japan and South Korea

Russian media outlets have been warning of Japan's growing hawkishness towards Russia now that Abe is gone, so these drills could become more frequent

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More from @SamRamani2

12 Nov
The US relationship with #Turkey is expected to be tense under Joe Biden, but there are also opportunities for cooperation.

In this thread, I outline the areas of cooperation and conflict
1) Northern Syria- Conflict

The US under Biden will stridently criticize a Turkish offensive against Kurdish militias in Northern #Syria and might repair strained ties with Syrian Kurds.

This will inflame tensions with #Turkey.
2) Idlib- Cooperation

A key Biden advisor has already endorsed Turkey's efforts to protect civilians in Idlib from #Russia and Assad.
Read 7 tweets
8 Nov
Saudi Arabia just congratulated Joe Biden on his victory

What does a #Biden victory mean for #KSA and the US-Saudi Arabia relationship?

Read this thread for my thoughts on this important subject. Image
The consensus is that Saudi Arabia wanted #Trump to win and its belated congratulation of Biden underscored this fact.

A withdrawal of US backing in #Yemen, a new #Iran nuclear deal and possible arms sale restrictions loom not to mention Biden's support for green tech.
Saudi Arabia could respond by deepening economic ties with #China and diplomatic relations with #Russia.

But it knows neither country can supersede the US as a partner, it needs to find a new way to engage the United States.
Read 6 tweets
7 Nov
THREAD:

How might a Joe Biden administration impact Russia's policy towards the Middle East?

I propose some ideas here
The US-Russia relationship will remain toxic.

But #Biden and #Russia might have some common ground in the Middle East.

Where?

Re-Engagement with #Iran, a two state solution in Israel-Palestine, and ending the #Yemen war.
Syria and Libya will be much the same.

Caesar Act sanctions will restrict #Russia's investments in #Syria.

A Biden administration might impose more #Libya-related sanctions on Russia, but will still remain detached.
Read 5 tweets

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