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Zenonas Tziarras

16 Apr, 5 tweets, 5 min read

With #Turkey visiting #Egypt to normalize relations and an upcoming FM Summit between #Cyprus, #Greece, #Israel and #UAE on security and economy it seems that we have two parallel geopolitical dynamics shaping.

#thread

>>

A. Turkey is trying to disrupt the emergent block of cooperation in the #Eastmed (that includes extra-regional actors) and deny international power multipliers from #Greece and #Cyprus in particular. Plus it promotes a different regional status quo, including on maritime zones. >

B. In parallel, #Greece, #Cyprus, #Israel and #UAE are trying to set up a different mechanism that will not be restricted by the dynamics & monothematic character of #EMGF. [UAE are unable to enter EMGF due to Palestinian veto]. This will allow them to enhance cooperation in >>

more strategic areas and have a clearer balancing role vis-a-vis #Turkey. To be sure the success of this initiative remains conditional on, a. Turkey's (in)ability to court participating states, especially Israel & UAE, and b. the degree of strategic cooperation within the block.

Two relevant papers are coming out soon, one on patterns of cooperation and competition in the #Eastmed and #Turkey’s subversive strategy, and another on the stakes of #Cyprus and #Greece in the region. Hopefully also a book on Turkish foreign policy by early 2022.

Fin.

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More from @ZenonasTziarras

Zenonas Tziarras

@ZenonasTziarras

15 Apr

@JMJalel_H

Comments on #Turkey's policy in the #EastMed alongside colleague @JMJalel_H.

Elaborated thoughts in thread below, including about today's Greek-Turkish meeting/press conference>

https://twitter.com/amberinzaman/status/1382785723196182529

#Turkey is currently following a two-fold strategy in the broader #EasternMediterranean. On the one hand it embarked, at least ostensibly, on an effort to normalize its relations with a number of regional countries including #Egypt, #Israel, #Greece, #France and the #UAE. >

Ankara expects that this will convince the #US and #EU that it adopted a more pro-western and constructive foreign policy orientation. Both the talks with #Greece and the developments in the #Cyprus process aim to appease the EU, advance Turkish-EU relations, and >>

Read 11 tweets

Zenonas Tziarras

@ZenonasTziarras

25 Aug 20

@MadaMasr

A piece by @MadaMasr on the #EastMed tensions with my two cents.

#Thread with some of my comments.

[Do read the whole thing, it's extensive and very balanced]

#Turkey #Egypt #Cyprus #Greece #Israel #UAE #Libya @prioMidEast @PRIOUpdates @PRIOCyprus

madamasr.com/en/2020/08/25/…

1. "The Egyptian-Greek Exclusive Economic Zone (#EEZ) deal is important because it settles, at least partly, an issue that has been open for decades in the area and completes another small [piece of the] puzzle in the maritime zone disputes of the #EasternMediterranean"

2. #Turkey's actions aim to“to deconstruct the existing regional status quo & security architecture & bring about a new one that will be more beneficial to itself, in terms of the geopolitical space, the natural resources and the maritime routes that it will be able to control.”

Read 15 tweets

Zenonas Tziarras

@ZenonasTziarras

6 Aug 20

#THREAD #RANT on #Turkey foreign policy

Another article (not surprisingly on Al Jazeera) trying to convince us that #Ankara is the victim and Turkish foreign policy is on the defence. The approach is superficial at best and ignores a number of facts >>

aljazeera.com/indepth/opinio…

That Turkey unofficially abandoned regime change in #Syria is not the point: same author, in 2013 Hinnebusch & Tur book wrote "Turkey saw an opportunity to bring abt regime change in Damascus at Iran's expense...it was a matter of geopolitical competition between Ankara & Tehran"

Regime change was an unprecedented policy for Ankara to adopt & a revisionist one; by the author's admission, for the purpose of regional power. 4 interventions later it's inaccurate to say that "Turkey's ability to influence the course of the conflict was reduced to a minimum"

Read 12 tweets

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