We have a shift to on-shore westerly wind in the Horn of Africa region today, which, I confess means little to me beyond being a new thing in the data. But it seems significant, as there is more water over the sea.
Today's rainfall/cyclone forecasts for the region follow.
Here's a view from this afternoon & the direction of travel is pretty stable. For me onshore winds bringing wet air towards mountains means lots more rain. If anyone is aware of the usual timing of this switch I would be interested.
Here are African 10-Day Accumulated rain forecasts. All of which now show the impact of the two Cyclones which are now in the forecast window.
The two animations which follow are both from the U.S. GFS model which is arguably the best and most experienced in forecasting cyclonic paths. In this one you see two lows briefly and then one cyclone heading south. The other one heads north.
And here is the northern Cyclone (*), which is modeled (as yesterday) - to make landfall on the Arabian Peninsula near the Yemen/Oman border.
(* Not yet formed)
As someone just mentioned the filling of the #GERD in the replies even without the change of wind direction and two cyclones, it already looked as if there was going to be no problem filling the #GERD - here's real deal data from the expert, @TirusewAsefa.
+ Here are 3-day accumulated rain forecasts, to Midnight Monday, for #Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa, again from the @ECMWF, GFS and KMA weather models.
And now we move on to the #ArabianStorms section of the bulletin. It has been a very busy day today as indicated in this eyewitness video from @Arab_Storms excellent storm feed.
In this image of the broad peninsula you can see the storms that caused this in the far left. Meanwhile along the north side of the Red Sea you can see a line of storms once again all the way from the Gulf of Aden to Medina.
Here are today's, May 7th, 10 day accumulated rain forecasts, for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC & KMA weather models.
An @NOAA picture of the Arabian Peninsula taken this morning. The high-speed water vapour transport across Yemen has now been running continuously for several days. The 2nd band of clouds in the north is new however.
May 7th, 3 day accumulated rain forecasts (to Saturday at Midnight), for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC & KMA weather models.
And here are four more @NASA images from this morning of Iran & the Caspian Sea, the Straights of Tiran, the Red Sea adjacent to #Mecca and #Jeddah, and the #Euphrates Delta in Iraq.
And the final forecast for tonight for the #MiddleEast contains ultra-long range accumulated rain computer model forecasts, NOAA's 16-Day GFS (the last three model runs - the difference being the cyclone) + Korea's 12 day KMA model.
الله أعلم
And to sign off an image of the sun setting for the day on the Horn of Africa.
/ENDS
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Netanyahu has proposed a pathway to end the war in Gaza under pressure primarily from the U.S. UK, France & Germany. Spain and Ireland and several other European nations & the European Commission.
The @israelipm sounds defeated. Hopefully this is the beginning of the end. The deal being offered to Gaza is far from perfect but it sounds workable in Netanyahus outline.
@IsraeliPM Whether it will be approved by Hamas however is unclear and rather complicated - as it’s unclear who inside Gaza would be in a position to respond to the offer. Many of Hamas’s fighters may prefer to die as martyrs also than to agree to any deal.
This is pathetic from @realDonaldTrump he’s lashing out like an angry teenager. Jerome Powell says he’s included a the costs of a building that was completed years ago in his very public attack on the FED Chair.
Trump has completely lost the plot. The single most damaging thing that he could do to undermine confidence in the U.S. dollar (which he publicly claims to want to deflate and there by make all Americans poorer - is to attack the Federal Reserve and the SEC.
@realDonaldTrump Trump is setting fire to the dollar to distract from his Epstein mess what a complete baby.
I attended the Bonn climate talks. They were very disappointing to everyone. The elephant in the room was (of course) the U.S. decision to withdraw from the talks altogether.
Unfortunately.. perhaps intentionally in advance of the continuation of climate talks regardless of #US_Disintigration the talks were also very sparsely attended particularly by activists and NGOs. The reason for this was @elonmusk destroying @-USAID.
@elonmusk As you can see the USAID Twitter account is now dead - deleted which is an appalling act of vandalism executed by Elon and his tech-bro team of teenagers.
This article is deeply depressing. For my part at Scoop.co.nz it is clear to me that:
1. The Govt has a deliberate strategy - probably not official but nevertheless operative to destroy NZ media. 2. This is not going to change any time soon. thespinoff.co.nz/politics/02-07…
& Sadly from what I discerned last year the @nzlabour opposition is both apathetic and indifferent to the plight of media. Also the @NZGreens. And have always been so for as long as I can remember.
This is extremely disappointing
@nzlabour @NZGreens I will be returning to NZ in August to ensure continues to function in these very difficult times for NZ media. We have faced numerous big challenges recently and thank our supporters and readers for their support.Scoop.co.nz
Ok so this is a bit weird, but in a kinda chill way so do bare with me and and I will be happy to answer questions afterwards. It’s about a castle on a virtual island in a massive online role playing game called Evony and it involves a possible but speculative discussion about @elonmusk and @X.
All will be revealed but first a picture or four actually from the game. More will come.
Ok. So here’s what I think is going on in a nutshell. I think elonmusk has invested in a MMORPG: a “Massive Multimedia Online Role Playing Game” which is a bit of a mouthful, called EVONY.
I liked its Twitter ads and finally clicked. It’s huge. Someone else can do the business story here which I am sure is interesting too.
But the this bit is weird.
The mysterious knight on the red horse arrived this morning beside my castle and he had some treasure.
I hadn’t a clue who it was so I grabbed the treasure and tried to kill the horse and rider as that’s what you do. But we got smashed badly.