We have a shift to on-shore westerly wind in the Horn of Africa region today, which, I confess means little to me beyond being a new thing in the data. But it seems significant, as there is more water over the sea.
Today's rainfall/cyclone forecasts for the region follow.
Here's a view from this afternoon & the direction of travel is pretty stable. For me onshore winds bringing wet air towards mountains means lots more rain. If anyone is aware of the usual timing of this switch I would be interested.
Here are African 10-Day Accumulated rain forecasts. All of which now show the impact of the two Cyclones which are now in the forecast window.
The two animations which follow are both from the U.S. GFS model which is arguably the best and most experienced in forecasting cyclonic paths. In this one you see two lows briefly and then one cyclone heading south. The other one heads north.
And here is the northern Cyclone (*), which is modeled (as yesterday) - to make landfall on the Arabian Peninsula near the Yemen/Oman border.
(* Not yet formed)
As someone just mentioned the filling of the #GERD in the replies even without the change of wind direction and two cyclones, it already looked as if there was going to be no problem filling the #GERD - here's real deal data from the expert, @TirusewAsefa.
+ Here are 3-day accumulated rain forecasts, to Midnight Monday, for #Ethiopia and the Horn of Africa, again from the @ECMWF, GFS and KMA weather models.
And now we move on to the #ArabianStorms section of the bulletin. It has been a very busy day today as indicated in this eyewitness video from @Arab_Storms excellent storm feed.
In this image of the broad peninsula you can see the storms that caused this in the far left. Meanwhile along the north side of the Red Sea you can see a line of storms once again all the way from the Gulf of Aden to Medina.
Here are today's, May 7th, 10 day accumulated rain forecasts, for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC & KMA weather models.
An @NOAA picture of the Arabian Peninsula taken this morning. The high-speed water vapour transport across Yemen has now been running continuously for several days. The 2nd band of clouds in the north is new however.
May 7th, 3 day accumulated rain forecasts (to Saturday at Midnight), for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC & KMA weather models.
And here are four more @NASA images from this morning of Iran & the Caspian Sea, the Straights of Tiran, the Red Sea adjacent to #Mecca and #Jeddah, and the #Euphrates Delta in Iraq.
And the final forecast for tonight for the #MiddleEast contains ultra-long range accumulated rain computer model forecasts, NOAA's 16-Day GFS (the last three model runs - the difference being the cyclone) + Korea's 12 day KMA model.
الله أعلم
And to sign off an image of the sun setting for the day on the Horn of Africa.
/ENDS
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If @realDonaldTrump chooses to join Netanyahu’s genocidal campaign if he is not obeyed …. he WILL find himself indicted in the international criminal court in The Hague.
And he will then have to make a decision on whether he is willing to remain in the U.S.
@realDonaldTrump Should he proceed as he has intimated that he should now be pursued by protestors everywhere he goes.
There is a lot of concern about evacuations of civilians from Gaza in the flotilla as anyone leaving may not be able to return any time soon. /2
But the moral hazard here is palpable. There are thousands of injured and starving mostly women and children. And we saw the young babies dying in the hospitals in the early stages of this war. /3
More and more naval vessels from Europe and the Middle East are being deployed to protect the Global Samir Flotilla as it moves slowly but surely towards Gaza where it intends to deliver aid and global attention. /1
Attacks from drones on the flotilla have resumed and Israel is presumably responsible for this. It is because of this that naval vessels from Europe are now joining the flotilla to protect their citizens rights of travel in international waters. /2
The escalation appears fairly slow at present and the flotilla is still within Greek waters at present /3
The #Samud #GazaFlotilla is currently sailing across the Ionian Sea towards the island archipelago south east of Athens in the Western Mediterranean. Conditions appear good for this leg that departed from Sicily after leaving Tunisia. The Flotilla set off from Barcelona.
2/ this current leg is 860 kms roughly and lead boats in the 51 vessel flotilla are currently approaching south western Greece. You can follow the flotillas progress here >> flotilla-orpin.vercel.app
3/ After two drone attacks on flotilla boats in Tunisia the flotilla sailed first to Sicily where it was joined by several more boats. And this map shows the path of the flotilla so far. The numbers in the dots indicate more vessels joining #GazaFlotilla