#USPresidentialElections2020 today so I thought I would list some facts and figures you might not be aware of.

This the 59th presidential election in USA and the 56th competitive one.

3 elections saw a candidate elected unopposed 1789, 1792, 1820.

Of the 55 competitive elections, 36 saw the winner win a majority of both the electoral college (EC) & popular vote (PV).

One, 1800, needed a contingent election in the House of Representatives as well, an oddity that led to the 12th Amendment that could play a part in 2020.

14 of 55 competitive elections saw the winner take the majority of the electoral college with a plurality of the popular vote.

Lowest PV share to win an EC majority was 39.8% by Lincoln in 1860 (his name was not on the ballot in the South) followed by Nixon 68 & Clinton 92.

2 elections (1888, 2016) saw the winner with an EC majority but coming 2nd in PV share on the day of the election.

2 elections (1876, 2000) also saw the winner with an EC majority & coming 2nd in PV share but the winner wasn't declared until some time later.

If you don't know the history of 1876 you must read up on it as I see it as a portent of 2020.

On the day, the Democrat won a PV majority (51%) and 184 EC votes. The Republican with 48% PV share had 165 EC votes but 4 states with 20 EC votes were disputed.

Eventually, ... /5
... a compromise was reached as follows.

1. 20 disputed EC votes awarded to the Republican making him President with a 185-184 EC vote.
2. He would stand down after 1 term.
3. Federal troops would be withdrawn from the South & Reconstruction would end.

Dramatic history!

Finally 1824 was the only time no candidate got a majority of the EC.

3 candidates took part in the contingent election in the House of Representatives.

The winner had come 2nd in the PV with only 31% making John Quincy Adams the least popular president of all time.

2020 is the 32nd election with an incumbent seeking re-election.

Of the previous 31 incumbents, 10 were defeated which last happened in 1992.

If we confine ourselves to 1st term elected Presidents only, like Trump, 9/24 have failed to be re-elected.

If Biden wins, he will be only the 2nd Vice President to become President non-consecutively i.e. with a gap in between his vice-presidency and presidency.

The first was Nixon who became President in 1968 having been VP between 1953 & 1960.

For more facts and figures about US Presidential Elections, have a go at my 10 question quiz I set in 2018. That quiz will be out of date tomorrow!


Just noticed there are 4 states in 2020 where results are very close and could lead to legal challenges (MI, WI, NC, GA).

In 1876, it was 4 states that had disputed results that led to the 1877 compromise.

History repeating?
Latest update! Nevada is now in play for Trump whilst GA looks like it will settle for Trump.

So still 4 states (NV, WI, NC, MI) in play. As things stand, Trump is reelected but if Biden takes either MI or NC he will be President provided WI & NV remain with Biden.

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More from @MarriottNigel

3 Nov
Parliament votes tomorrow to confirm that England will go into its 2nd #COVID19 lockdown from Thursday. Does the data show that it's necessary?

We know that deaths are rising and at present are on trend to overtake the April peak around the 3rd/4th week of November.

But ...1/n Image
... if cases are already in decline by now, then what will a 2nd lockdown do to help reduce deaths?

At best all it can do is accelerate an existing decline or at worse prevent cases from increasing again.

So are cases about to turn? Nationally, the picture is poised. /2 Image
The 7 day centred moving average has turned but potential revisions to the last 7 days could reverse this (red triangles are a short CMA projection based on previous restatements).

The thing to note though is that the latest 7 day CMA is as of 26th October, 1 week ago.

... /3
Read 11 tweets
13 Feb
If this goes viral, I'm claiming the credit for the hashtag!

The #stats behind "Moving to a world beyond p<0.05" bit.ly/2we28Ox should be called #Pexit.

Yes there are parallels between #Pexit & #Brexit as I will explain! /1
First look at the timing.

March 2016 - ASA statement on misuse of p-values bit.ly/2ONg5sX

June 2016 - The UK votes to leave the EU bit.ly/2OMy2be

They were preceded by decades of debate on the use & misuse of P-values & the UK's relationship with the EU.

In September 2016, I attended the @RoyalStatSoc conference in Manchester. #Pexit was a keynote session where @AmstatNews gave its reasons for its statement.

See youtube.com/watch?v=B7mvbO…. I am in the front row taking many notes!

9 mins into that clip is a slide explaining ...

Read 24 tweets
1 Dec 19
Are we going to see a repeat of #GE2017 ? In my Friday post marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk… summarising latest poll trends, I said Labour need to focus on C2DE, Leavers & Lib Dems.

With the polls we've had over the weekend, this thread summarises what I am seeing. /1
CON-LAB lead is unchanged from the start of the election since both LAB & CON are up 7 pts. If this remains the case, it will be a Conservative majority.

Note figures for the latest week includes some from end of last week. My week is defined to be Thurs-Weds. /2
LIB DEMS 1 - Labour needs to first recover its #GE2017 voters lost to the Lib Dems. Having lost 40% of LAB17 voters by the time Theresa May stood down, they've recovered a third. Of the remaining 2/3, half are still with LD&GRN and half with CON&BRX. /3
Read 8 tweets
29 Nov 19
My #GE2019 poll tracker is now up to date on my blog here bit.ly/34u8Bky.

As before, I've compared latest polls to election results from GE74 to #GE17 & broken the data down by region, #GE2017, #Brexit & class.

Full details in the blog but here are the key pts. /1
#ConservativeParty are back to #GE2017 levels in all regions. Votes are being redistributed from remainers to leavers and the key to a majority is the efficiency of this transfer. /2
#Labour are around 10 pts behind where they were in #GE2017. Can they repeat the comeback of GE17 again? The key is reclaiming the defectors to the #LibDems and they have been doing that but they are leaking to the #Tories as well. /3
Read 6 tweets
28 Nov 19
Some excellent points here.

MRP is simply a cleverer model for turning voting intention data into seats.

If you have incorrect polling data, it will cleverly turn that into incorrect seats with more precision.

I had a clever model in #GE17 and look how that turned out! /1
I am not a pollster and so had to rely on published polls that turned out to be wrong in the North & Midlands.

Had the polls been right, my seat forecast would have been near perfect as I demonstrated in my post mortem.

marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk… /2
My biggest regret in #GE2017 was not to realise that this chart I created in my most widely read post during the campaign contained a clue that Labour was doing better than expected in Wales, North & Midlands.


Read 4 tweets
29 May 19
OK, if you want to follow the #conservativeleadership race, here is a summary of the declared candidates so far. I've done this as a #Diversity analysis i.e. how much they differ from the norm but I also found it a very good way of getting to know their backgrounds @sundersays /1
Nominations close on June 10th so if people are interested, I will keep this up to date. Once the nominees are known, I will switch to a political summary instead e.g. voting record, years as MP, etc /2
Sticking with the diversity angle, it is interesting to see how #Conservative Prime Ministers started to diverge from the norm after the abolition of the magic circle and the candidates' Difference from Norm scores are on average similar to their predecessors. /3
Read 7 tweets

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