Thread by @MarriottNigel

#USPresidentialElections2020 today so I thought I would list some facts and figures you might not be aware of.

This the 59th presidential election in USA and the 56th competitive one.

3 elections saw a candidate elected unopposed 1789, 1792, 1820.

1/n

Of the 55 competitive elections, 36 saw the winner win a majority of both the electoral college (EC) & popular vote (PV).

One, 1800, needed a contingent election in the House of Representatives as well, an oddity that led to the 12th Amendment that could play a part in 2020.

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14 of 55 competitive elections saw the winner take the majority of the electoral college with a plurality of the popular vote.

Lowest PV share to win an EC majority was 39.8% by Lincoln in 1860 (his name was not on the ballot in the South) followed by Nixon 68 & Clinton 92.

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2 elections (1888, 2016) saw the winner with an EC majority but coming 2nd in PV share on the day of the election.

2 elections (1876, 2000) also saw the winner with an EC majority & coming 2nd in PV share but the winner wasn't declared until some time later.

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If you don't know the history of 1876 you must read up on it as I see it as a portent of 2020.

On the day, the Democrat won a PV majority (51%) and 184 EC votes. The Republican with 48% PV share had 165 EC votes but 4 states with 20 EC votes were disputed.

Eventually, ... /5

... a compromise was reached as follows.

1. 20 disputed EC votes awarded to the Republican making him President with a 185-184 EC vote.
2. He would stand down after 1 term.
3. Federal troops would be withdrawn from the South & Reconstruction would end.

Dramatic history!

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Finally 1824 was the only time no candidate got a majority of the EC.

3 candidates took part in the contingent election in the House of Representatives.

The winner had come 2nd in the PV with only 31% making John Quincy Adams the least popular president of all time.

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2020 is the 32nd election with an incumbent seeking re-election.

Of the previous 31 incumbents, 10 were defeated which last happened in 1992.

If we confine ourselves to 1st term elected Presidents only, like Trump, 9/24 have failed to be re-elected.

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If Biden wins, he will be only the 2nd Vice President to become President non-consecutively i.e. with a gap in between his vice-presidency and presidency.

The first was Nixon who became President in 1968 having been VP between 1953 & 1960.

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For more facts and figures about US Presidential Elections, have a go at my 10 question quiz I set in 2018. That quiz will be out of date tomorrow!

marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/us…

/end

Just noticed there are 4 states in 2020 where results are very close and could lead to legal challenges (MI, WI, NC, GA).

In 1876, it was 4 states that had disputed results that led to the 1877 compromise.

History repeating?

Latest update! Nevada is now in play for Trump whilst GA looks like it will settle for Trump.

So still 4 states (NV, WI, NC, MI) in play. As things stand, Trump is reelected but if Biden takes either MI or NC he will be President provided WI & NV remain with Biden.