Are we going to see a repeat of #GE2017 ? In my Friday post marriott-stats.com/nigels-blog/uk… summarising latest poll trends, I said Labour need to focus on C2DE, Leavers & Lib Dems.
With the polls we've had over the weekend, this thread summarises what I am seeing. /1
With the polls we've had over the weekend, this thread summarises what I am seeing. /1
CON-LAB lead is unchanged from the start of the election since both LAB & CON are up 7 pts. If this remains the case, it will be a Conservative majority.
Note figures for the latest week includes some from end of last week. My week is defined to be Thurs-Weds. /2
Note figures for the latest week includes some from end of last week. My week is defined to be Thurs-Weds. /2
LIB DEMS 1 - Labour needs to first recover its #GE2017 voters lost to the Lib Dems. Having lost 40% of LAB17 voters by the time Theresa May stood down, they've recovered a third. Of the remaining 2/3, half are still with LD&GRN and half with CON&BRX. /3
LIB DEMS 2 - They are making some inroads into the LD17 vote but so are the Conservatives so these gains are cancelled out. So the focus has to be on recovery of LAB17 voters from the LDs. /4
CON17 - Labour is making no meaningful inroad into the CON17 vote. 1 in 6 CON17 have defected but the Conservatives have replaced. It will be the efficiency of the replacements at a seat that is the key to a majority/5
LEAVERS - Labour had lost 1 in 7 of all Leave voters who also voted in GE17 but they've clawed back a 1/3 of these so far in the election campaign. 1 in 14 still intend to vote BRX and given the Conservatives are up on GE17 with Leavers, BRX voters are most likely to be ex-LAB/6
C2DE - This is where Labour have been most successful with their campaign. Conservatives are still leading in this category but it's notable that Labour's recovery has mostly come from BRX. Suggests the battle in the Labour Leave seats of North & Mids could be close. /7
C2DE cont - I've also updated the long term trend chart which shows how the campaign has impacted this category. This is the category where Labour has been most successful though unlike GE17, the Conservatives are still set to win this demographic for the first time ever. /end
