Dan Norris has won #WestOfEnglandMayor for #Labour making it one of the few LAB gains in #LocalElections2021.
In doing so, he also wrecked my forecast (see bit.ly/3uqY0Uu) the Conservatives would just hold on!
So what went wrong?
My...
@adam_ldr @StephenSumner15
/1
In doing so, he also wrecked my forecast (see bit.ly/3uqY0Uu) the Conservatives would just hold on!
So what went wrong?
My...
@adam_ldr @StephenSumner15
/1
... blog makes it clear that my forecast was in fact the minimum CON needed to do to win & was based on a number of assumptions.
The final vote tally saw LAB with 40k votes ahead of CON & crunching the numbers breaks the reason for this into 4 parts.
First an aside.
/2
The final vote tally saw LAB with 40k votes ahead of CON & crunching the numbers breaks the reason for this into 4 parts.
First an aside.
/2
When analysing elections using Supplementary Vote, it's more correct to look at number of votes rather than vote shares.
That's because there are a number of steps to the final vote totals & errors can multiply along the way.
So the 1st reason for the 40k difference is ...
/3
That's because there are a number of steps to the final vote totals & errors can multiply along the way.
So the 1st reason for the 40k difference is ...
/3
... differential turnout in Bristol accounting for just under 8k votes.
Turnout was 20% higher in B&NES & S.Gloucs but 37% higher in Bristol.
A 17pt difference in a predominantly LAB city helped LAB's 1st & 2nd prefs since the CON vote is lower in Bristol as well.
The ...
/4
Turnout was 20% higher in B&NES & S.Gloucs but 37% higher in Bristol.
A 17pt difference in a predominantly LAB city helped LAB's 1st & 2nd prefs since the CON vote is lower in Bristol as well.
The ...
/4
... 2nd reason is higher than expected 2nd preferences.
56% of the eliminated LD & GRN candidates votes were transferred via 2nd prefs in 2021.
This compares to 39% in 2021 & my forecast of 40% based on observations elsewhere.
One reason for this might have been the GRN...
/5
56% of the eliminated LD & GRN candidates votes were transferred via 2nd prefs in 2021.
This compares to 39% in 2021 & my forecast of 40% based on observations elsewhere.
One reason for this might have been the GRN...
/5
... performance which was good.
It's plausible based on current polls that Greens may have disproportionately given 2nd prefs to LAB.
The extra 2nd prefs account for just under 6k votes of the 40k difference.
3rd & 4th is the underperformance of the CON candidate.
This...
/6
It's plausible based on current polls that Greens may have disproportionately given 2nd prefs to LAB.
The extra 2nd prefs account for just under 6k votes of the 40k difference.
3rd & 4th is the underperformance of the CON candidate.
This...
/6
... was especially notable in B&NES which LAB almost won for the 1st time ever.
Bear in mind Dan Norris is a former MP for North Somerset so this may have been a factor.
CON also underperformed in S.Gloucs as well & the effect was that instead of being 5pts ahead of LAB ...
/7
Bear in mind Dan Norris is a former MP for North Somerset so this may have been a factor.
CON also underperformed in S.Gloucs as well & the effect was that instead of being 5pts ahead of LAB ...
/7
... after round 1, CON were nearly 5pts behind LAB.
With a poor round 1, it's no surprise CON were also 8 pts behind where I said they needed to be in Round 2.
The under-performance is especially notable if we place the 2021 results against previous WECA wide elections.
/end
With a poor round 1, it's no surprise CON were also 8 pts behind where I said they needed to be in Round 2.
The under-performance is especially notable if we place the 2021 results against previous WECA wide elections.
/end
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