Thread by @SatyshivS

A narrative is being peddled that the #COVID19India crisis is due to these factors

1. Modi & Team claimed victory & did nothing
2. Modi allowed election rallies & #Kumbh which caused the #CoronaSecondWave
3. Now @narendramodi is not giving oxygen, medicines & vaccines to states

Let us see what facts can be ascertained by looking at the numbers.

On Feb 1, daily new cases in India had dropped to 85790. Two third of these new cases from the states of Maharastra & Kerala, blessed with best CM & best health minister in the country.

#CoronaSecondWave

By 15th Feb, daily new cases had risen to 15614. Punjab joined Maharastra and Kerala in the top 3 states and they contributed 12,126 new cases. 78% of all new cases in the country

Kerala had seen high cases even in Dec-Jan period when rest of country was witnessing decline

On15.3, total 24,437 new cases were reported in India, 62% from Maharastra alone. Many of us thought that like in past, this could be contained locally.

Punjab overtook Kerala to claim the number 2 position. Several new cases in Punjab were of highly infectious #UKVariant

By 31.3 new daily cases climbed to 72115 as #coronavirus spread further.

Maharastra was still contributing 55% of new cases but now 6 states had more than >2500 daily cases. With 55 deaths in a day, Punjab was second only to Maharastra. It also had a poor #vaccination record

On 7th April, new daily cases were more than One Lakh (126,276). Chattisgarh which had become the number 2 state now had >10K cases daily.

Total 5 states reported more than 5000 new cases. UK strain had now spread from Punjab to Delhi & UP thanks to so-called #FarmerProtest

By 15th April, the second wave had taken dangerous proportions with more than 2 Lakh new daily new cases being reported in India with MH at the top but 6 states reporting > 10K cases daily.

A tiny state like Chattisgarh had the second-highest fatalities.

One 22.4 more than 2 Lakhs new daily cases were detected with 6 states contributing >15K

The virus was now rampant in Delhi & UP with 'stunning' images of funeral pyres being splashed in global media. Kerala joined the list again. Chattisgarh was still suffering high fatalities

So you see the #CoronaSecondWave started in Maharastra & Punjab. In Maharashtra, it was a new variant B.1.67 (called the Indian variant now) while in Punjab it was the UK variant.

An article dated March 25th.

financialexpress.com/lifestyle/heal…

While the UK variant was spreading in the capital, the media was cheering farmers who had sieged Delhi & wanted protests to intensify and spread across the country.

Rallies were being organized in every poll-bound state to urge people to defeat BJP.

timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/farmers-…

Health is primarily a state issue. The role of center is to advise, issue guidelines, and help on critical commodities.

Total 35 advisories were issued between Dec & April to states witnessing an increase in new cases.

One example from Feb

business-standard.com/article/curren…

To those who attribute #Corona2ndWave to elections

Corona Second wave started in states which did not have elections
And @BJP4India was only party to agree with EC's suggestion of virtual rallies

A thread on elections impact on #CoronaPandemic

https://twitter.com/SatyshivS/status/1383381998517952520?s=20

Similarly, #Kumbh had nothing to do with #CoronaSecondWave in India

It had started well before #Kumbh even started and it did so in Maharashtra and Punjab.

if there was one super spreader event, it was #FarmersProtest, not Kumbh

A thread

https://twitter.com/SatyshivS/status/1382399366707564545?s=20

Appending this thread with an article that looks at case incidence for states in India & genome studies and arrives at the same conclusion

#COVIDSecondWaveInIndia started from the states of Maharashtra & Punjab and spread to the rest of the country.

trialsitenews.com/the-outbreak-i…

Now let us look at OXYGEN. When cases increased exponentially, demand for medical oxygen increased.

India's pre covid consumption of 1000 MT/day increased to 3000 MT during the peak of the first wave when we had more than 1 million active cases.

scroll.in/article/976398…

India met this demand by diverting some industrial oxygen for medical purposes and we avoided any big problem. Also, the approval and funding were made available from #PMCARE to set up 162 PSA plants to make big government hospitals self-sufficient.

pib.gov.in/PressReleseDet…

Hospitals avoided setting up these plants for a number of reasons but mostly because they preferred "procurement". Even private hospitals who minted money in first wave avoided investing in setting up in-house oxygen plants.

An article by @sgurumurthy

newindianexpress.com/opinions/colum…

When the pressure of new cases and deaths mounted in Delhi for nonavailability of hospital beds, oxygen, medicines, they did what they always do.

Passed the blame on center. They also started demanding 900 MT/day oxygen which defied logic.

Thread

https://twitter.com/SatyshivS/status/1390752162301366272?s=20

The thumb rule of oxygen is that 1 MT per day is more than enough for 500 active patients. Last year we needed 1 MTD for 700 active patients.

Looking at India's active load of 3.7 million, we need about 7000 MT per day of medical oxygen. For 4 Million, a max of 8000 MT

India now has the capacity for producing even 10,000 MT per day, of which @reliancegroup produces about 10%.

The Ambani abused by Pappu has come to rescue. Businessmen always do, unlike Jholawalas.

businesstoday.in/current/corpor…

With higher production, the bottleneck shifted to logistics as oxygen is produced in coastal cities while demand was in northern plains including villages. And oxygen can be transported only in special cryogenic tankers.

An interesting article

thehindubusinessline.com/opinion/dealin…

The government pressed all its might in solving logistical challenges.

500+ Nitrogen & argon tankers converted for O2
Additional tankers imported.
Oxygen Express Trains to reduce transit time
Empty tankers airlifted to reduce reverse transit time

#IndiaFightsCorona

While the center government led by @narendramodi gets so much criticism and hate even after doing all this in a matter of days, see how media indulges its darling state - Kerala

May 1 - Oxygen Surplus State
May 4 - We need #oxygen from center

https://twitter.com/SatyshivS/status/1390342479505879041?s=20

Now let us look at the #vaccination strategy of India. The narrative is that the Indian government did not do anything on speedy development of #vaccine

PM @narendramodi was personally involved in talking to all stakeholders

Thread by @sunilozabjp

https://twitter.com/sunilozabjp/status/1392418247446724611?s=20

India has 230 million people > 45. Total stock available for domestic requirements at the start of April when #vaccination was opened up > 45 years was 135 million. With a monthly production of 70 million, we could have covered most of the people with one dose by end of the month

India has 130M people >60 years. Add 10M of 45+ with comorbidities. That is 140 million.
We had enough #vaccines to provide first dose to almost all of these people by end of March itself. Imagine the difference it would have made on total deaths as 80% deaths are in this segment

Looking at the low spread of #COVID in India in Dec-Feb, the strategy was to roll out vaccines in multiple phases to cover the most vulnerable people first.

But what went wrong? Why did states fail to use the stock to vaccinate its residents?

A thread

threadreaderapp.com/thread/1388166…

Instead of participating in #VaccinationDrive to save the most vulnerable people, the opposition was busy mocking our #vaccines & creating doubts in peoples' minds. Some Chief Ministers even skipped the special meeting called by PM @narendramodi in March to ramp up #Vaccination

A good thread by @KiranKS highlighting the role played by PM @narendramodi for #Vaccine development in India.

https://twitter.com/KiranKS/status/1393178777857843204

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