Thread by @althecat

Cyclone Tauktae is now onshore over the Indian State of Gujarat India. The storm has weakened since these photos were taken by @NASA Modis this morning, but is still packing 150kmh winds & has done a lot of damage.

Rainfall forecasts for #MiddleEast and #HornOfAfrica follow.

Today's satellite presentation of the area has a new feature which has been strengthening over the past few days. A stream of water vapour out of Central Africa & Sudan transiting Chad and Sudan and then the Red Sea near Jeddah.

There is also an increasing amount of activity in the Western Sahara which supports the CMC and KMA model predictions of significant rainfall in these areas in recent forecasts.

May 18th North Africa 10-day accumulated rainfall forecasts. As usual the KMA and CMC models are far more bullish on #DesertRain and the quantities of Sahara rain is astonishing. These areas of desert are usually lucky to get 10mm of rain in a year.

Here's a view of the #HornOfAfrica as the sun went down today. The heavy rains in Sudan are continuing and convection of a more normal scale (compared to that which birthed Tauktae) is restarting off the coast of Somalia.

The pattern of rainfall in terms of location as seen in the satellite imagery today looks as if it will hold with rain mostly in the East and South of Ethiopia. We do see some rain returning to Somalia also. But South Sudan seems to be getting the most.

The forecasts above are for 10-days of rain. These ones are for the next three days till midnight Friday.

#GERD #Ethiopia #Sudan @SouthSudan #Somalia #Somaliland

As for #ArabianStorms today there were none. Just a little bit of cloud in Oman along the Red Sea Coast and over Medina.

May 18th, 10 day accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC & KMA weather models.

@Arab_Storms
#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم

Today's 3-day accumulated rainfall forecasts for the #MiddleEast to midnight Wednesday.

The final rainfall forecasts for today, ultra-long range GFS (16-days) and KMA (12-days).

Conditions remain favourable for the development of a cyclone in #ArabianSea.

Here are the last two GFS and KMA runs.
#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #GERD #DesertRain
لله أعلم

Before we take a look at the latest long range Indian Ocean forecasts here are a couple of Cyclone #Tauktae videos from @Arab_Storms

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1394570063001264130?s=20

... there is going to be a lot of cleaning up to be done. #Tauktae

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1394345331995840518?s=20

And here is some video of #TaukTae driven waves crashing on the Mumbai sea walls.

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1394279539346317318?s=20

So what next for the wider region. The latest GFS and ECMWF models both now have a tropical low system in the Bay of Bengal turning into a depression, and possibly a storm, towards the end of May. Here is the latest GFS model run.

and the @ECMWF.

As for the anticipated rain in central Asia including #Kazakhstan #Mongolia, that is still in the forecasts. But the rain in northern Tibet has diminished.

Till tomorrow. /ENDS

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