Q: In @US4AfghanPeace's testimony today, he said that the withdrawal is proceeding w/o any sig interference from the #Taliban & that he expects that to cont to be the case. You said you assumed there would be attempts by the TB to interfere. Have you changed your assessment? 2/n
MR. KIRBY: We would agree that thus far, the retrograde continues at pace, the withdrawal continues at pace with nothing more than some minor harassing attacks that have had no impact, so we agree w/that assessment. We certainly hope that that remains the case, going forward. 3/n
But we're not going to take anything on hope & face value. We have to assume & plan for the potential that it could be resisted, opposed by the #Taliban. So we cont to take all the right precautions, ensure that GEN Miller has all the options at his disposal to do this safely 4/n
Q: Congressmen Meeks & McCaul have asked #DOD to do more to help @StateDept w/the special immigrant visas, to help Afghans who work for the Americans. Is that something the Pentagon's looking into? & what are you doing now to assist State in pushing these visas, if anything? 4/n
MR. KIRBY: It's really a @StateDept program & it wouldn't be appropriate for #DOD to lean in in any tangible way. Obviously-& you've heard @SecDef talk about this-he agrees w/@POTUS, that we want to do whatever we can to help those who helped us over the last 20 yrs. 5/n
He's committed to that, having served in that conflict himself. But it is a @StateDept program & we're going to respect the State Department's equities and their initiatives inside that program in terms of making sure that it meets that need. 6/n
Q: Well, the chairman and the ranking member have suggested that #DOD can do more. Are you saying that DOD shouldn't do more?
MR. KIRBY: I haven't see their letter; I haven't seen what they're asking for DOD to do. 7/n
I won't get ahead of correspondence I haven't seen. But this is a @StateDept led program. We're in spt of it. We spt the effort to do what's right by these interpreters & other individuals that helped us throughout the last 20 yrs. We'll look at it & respond appropriately. 8/n
Q: I understand this is a @StateDept-run program, but what can #DOD do specifically to protect these people as we withdraw & then after we withdraw?
MR. KIRBY: Well, as for while we're there, GEN Miller has some capabilities to continue to support Afghan security forces... 9/n
...& there are still Afghans helping us specifically in our ability to try to help them. & just like we have for the last 20 years, those involved in those kinds of ops & are assisting us, we do everything we can to help make sure that they're protected... 10/n
...in the same way that our troops are. As the retrograde gets closer to completion, our ability to support the #ANDSF on the ground in a kinetic way from inside #Afghanistan will obviously change & our support will eventually migrate to one of over the horizon support. 11/n
...& it'll be-in terms of the #ANDSF-it'll be logistical support from over the horizon, as well as some financial support. But eventually, this is their country to fight for & it's their country to defend and it's their citizens to look after... 12/n
...That doesn't mean that we aren't still going to support the @StateDept as they try to look for ways using the SiV program to get those people out of the country, that want to come here to the US, we're going to continue to do that. But it is a State-run program. 13/n
Q: There are 15,000 applications in the pipeline. It takes 800 days on average to get one through. We have 116 days left. So are these people just going to be stranded?
MR. KIRBY: That's a question for our @StateDept colleagues, not for #DOD to answer... 14/n
...We don't run that program, but I can assure you that the @StateDept shares the same concerns we have about taking care of these people who have risked and sacrificed so much to help us accomplish our mission over the last 20 years. 15/15
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I attended #SOFIC today, at which GEN Rich Clarke, the commander of @USSOCOM spoke. My notes from his speech (paraphrases, not quotes unless specified) are in this THREAD. 1/n
- #COVID19 has impacted @USSOCOM's operating culture—caused #SOF to look at where they need to be, how they interact, etc
- The withdrawal from #Afghanistan will bring changes. SOF were first ones in, will be the last ones out. Will spark a new era of opportunity for SOF. 2/n
- #SOF today are almost unrecognizable from SOF that invaded #Afghanistan in 2001. 20 years of the necessity of combat has been the mother of all inventions. SOF have had urgent warfighting needs for 20 years, and will continue to have these going forward. 3/n
Today, the House Armed Services Committee held a full hearing for "An Update on #Afghanistan."
Witnesses were ASD David Helvey (OSD) & BGen Matt Trollinger (Joint Staff). It was a *long* hearing. I'll post a summary in this THREAD. 1/n
(If you'd like to watch the whole thing, here's the link: armedservices.house.gov/2021/5/full-co…. Note that what follows aren't quotes, but my paraphrases of their comments). 2/n
Chairman Smith opening remarks: This hearing will focus on key questions, such as: What is the process for US withdrawal from #Afghanistan & what’s our strategy going forward? Also, what our lessons learned from the past 20 years? 3/n
Very excited to post this report by my team @CNA_org from a congressionally-mandated study led by @Pamela_Faber on whether DOD policies & activities adequately account for the roles of #women & #gender in #terrorist groups.
For the study, the team researched & ID'd the roles of women & gender in terrorist groups; assessed whether current DOD counterterrorism (CT) & countering violence extremism (CVE) strategy, policy, & activities incorporate gender considerations; ... 2/n
... and identified gaps, risks & opportunities for DOD in the areas of strategy/policy/doctrine, training & education, operations & programs, and conceptual understanding. 3/n
The debate contained within these tweets is a critical one: the question of to what extent the #Taliban will try to seize Kabul by force—as opposed to using force in support of a political track—is one I see many people grappling with here. 1/n
My view is that the #Taliban will press the mil front in 2022 but in a calibrated way—ie, they won’t “empty the madrassas” in a Tet style offensive, but will likely cont surrounding & pressuring provincial capitals. If the opportunity presents to seize 1/more, they’ll take it 2/n
But they know they can’t win militarily so long as the AAF/Commandos are in tact & the #ANDSF doesn’t fracture—neither of which are likely to happen so long as US security assistance $$ continues at scale. I assess it will until at least 2024. 3/n
I’ve been asked a number of times the past couple of days what I think of @joebiden’s announcement to withdraw all US troops from #Afghanistan by September. I haven’t had the time to write a proper op ed, so instead I’ll give you my thoughts in this THREAD. 1/n
My top-line take is this: What choice did @joebiden really have? If you examine his situation through the lenses of #Afghanistan, terrorism risk, credibility, domestic politics, & global US priorities, you’ll see the answer is “he had to do it.” 2/n
Let’s start w/#Afghanistan. Recognize first that the US isn’t in South Asia! We were always visiting, which means at some point, we would leave. Only Q has been when that would happen. That Q was answered in the US-#Taliban Agreement: We would leave by 1 May. 3/n
Some key points of @JoeBiden's speech on #Afghanistan withdrawal in this THREAD. 1/n
- Only Afghans have the right & responsibility to lead their country
- War & endless US mil force could not create or sustain a durable Afghan govt
- We brought bin Laden to justice 10 yrs ago…our reasons for staying in #Afghanistan have since become increasingly unclear 2/n
- Terrorism threat has metastasized around the globe…makes little sense to keep thousands of troops in one place
- We can’t keep deploying troops to #Afghanistan hoping for the right conditions for withdrawal & expecting a different result 3/n