I attended #SOFIC today, at which GEN Rich Clarke, the commander of @USSOCOM spoke. My notes from his speech (paraphrases, not quotes unless specified) are in this THREAD. 1/n
- #COVID19 has impacted @USSOCOM's operating culture—caused #SOF to look at where they need to be, how they interact, etc
- The withdrawal from #Afghanistan will bring changes. SOF were first ones in, will be the last ones out. Will spark a new era of opportunity for SOF. 2/n
- #SOF today are almost unrecognizable from SOF that invaded #Afghanistan in 2001. 20 years of the necessity of combat has been the mother of all inventions. SOF have had urgent warfighting needs for 20 years, and will continue to have these going forward. 3/n
- Threats that #SOF address will continue to evolve: cyber threats, malign influence & disinformation from #China/#Russia, etc. SOF have to continue to modernize for purpose. 4/n
- Confident #SOF can do this, based on past performance, strong partnership w/industry & high quality of SOF personnel.
- SOF will remain an integral part of solutions to the most pressing US national security problems. And industry will be right there alongside SOF. 5/n
. @USSOCOM's four broad mission areas have remained constant (the ‘4Cs’):
1. Crisis response: Traditional SOF mission that will continue.
2. #Counterterrorism operations: Not going away anytime soon. 6/n
3. Competition: Won’t be a victory parade for this. May be an infinite mission, w/no declared winner. New tools & tactics have given adversaries new avenues for competition—cyber & space, info space. Battles in the cognitive space & on the internet have become more important 7/n
Commanders in #Afghanistan today say they spend 60% of their time on non-lethal effects.
4. Conflict: Need to enable the joint force.

8/n
“The hardest days of the past will be the easiest days of the future.”
- Future environment will challenge #SOF comms, navigation, mobility & signature. 9/n
- @USSOCOM has spent ~$9B over the past 5 years to modernize capabilities & force structure. But people are more important than hardware & SOCOM continues to invest in them too. Ex: MIT virtual course for >300 SOCOM personnel on artificial intelligence (AI). 10/n
- #SOF needs people with strong physical & cognitive skills, but also the means to project AI-enabled effects to the edge to improve operator decision-making. All part of @USSOCOM’s “Hyper Enabled Operator” initiative. 11/n
- Will need #SOF teams to be able to rapidly evolve from competition to conflict activities, using the same/similar capabilities. Need the ability to see adversary activities in real time to detect that shift, as well. 12/n
- Gaps that industry can help @USSOCOM with:
1. How to better search through SOCOM’s mountains of data? How to move data from unclassified to classified seamlessly?
2. How to integrate the battle picture & comms across the joint force & w/our allies and partners? 13/n
3. How to communicate in a comms-contested or denied environment?
4. How do we move #SOF while maintaining the element of surprise? Especially when an adversary is looking for us?
5. How do we push our data to the edge IOT maintain decision advantage in the tactical fight? 14/n
- #SOF have been on the leading edge of innovation for #DOD for years—want that to continue.
- The future will be contested, competitive & partnered, every step of the way. Have to innovate to win, across the ‘4Cs’. 15/n
Q: How is @USSOCOM adjusting to better address Strategic Competition?
A: #SOF are in about 60 countries right now. Their mere presence—ability to sense & respond to adversary actions—constitutes competition. SOF actions in the info space have increased dramatically... 16/n
...for the sake of competition. @USSOCOM's investing more in its people also, for things like AI.

Q: What keeps you up at night?
A: Paraphrasing Mattis: “Nothing keeps me up at night. #SOF keep our adversaries up at night.” Do have concerns about maintaining SOF’s edge... 17/n
...& perceptions that #SOF only do crisis response or #counterterrorism. Need to better educate people on what SOF can do for competition and conflict.

Q: What’s you top initiative for FY21?
A: @AFSpecOpsCmd's Armed Overwatch Program. 18/n
Q: How does @USSOCOM see the cont'd rise of space as the high ground & implementation of new tech to use space to our advantage?
A: SOCOM & @SpaceForceDoD have exchanged liaisons & SOCOM recognizes the need for space-based capabilities (eg secure comms). 19/n
Q: How will @USSOCOM position itself to respond effectively & quickly to rapidly changing rules of engagement in the future operating environment?
A: Anywhere #SOF go, they’ll have the ability to defend themselves. ROE will vary from location to location... 20/n
...depending on the threat, but @USSOCOM will ensure we provide #SOF the right tools & people to accomplish the mission.

Q: How can industry better support SOCOM's competition in the cognitive space?
A: In the commercial world, competitors can see what others are doing... 21/n
...how customers are responding & they use tools like sentiment analysis to determine how they’re doing in the competition. @USSOCOM should be able to do the same kinds of things in the info space. Need to ensure US messaging is getting amplified... 22/n
...while our adversaries’ messages are not. Need to understand if/how our actions are resonating with local populations.

Q: How can we as industry or as citizens help #SOF on the Hill?
A: Continue to advocate for #SOF & their missions to members of Congress... 23/n
...Talk to your constituencies to highlight #SOF requirements, like NextGen ISR or NextGen mobility.

How is @USSOCOM leveraging AI/ML?
A: Ex: 160th SOAR looked at their maintenance, used AI/ML to develop predictive models for Blackhawk maintenance... 24/n
...Saved millions of $ & made them more ready/effective overall. Ex: Project MAVEN. Ex: Some of the info warfare ops @USSOCOM is doing, leveraging publicly-available tools.

Q: Why does SOCOM need a hyper-enabled operator?
A: That concept is as much about the idea... 25/n
...of getting our people as much capability forward as we can—while empowering them to use those tools w/o getting overwhelmed by them—then it is specific systems. Systems are important, but individual operators and the people supporting them are the key to @USSOCOM. #SOFIC 26/26

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More from @JJSchroden

19 May
Comments by @PentagonPresSec on #Afghanistan at yesterday's #DOD presser in this THREAD. 1/n

defense.gov/Newsroom/Trans…
Q: In @US4AfghanPeace's testimony today, he said that the withdrawal is proceeding w/o any sig interference from the #Taliban & that he expects that to cont to be the case. You said you assumed there would be attempts by the TB to interfere. Have you changed your assessment? 2/n
MR. KIRBY: We would agree that thus far, the retrograde continues at pace, the withdrawal continues at pace with nothing more than some minor harassing attacks that have had no impact, so we agree w/that assessment. We certainly hope that that remains the case, going forward. 3/n
Read 16 tweets
12 May
Today, the House Armed Services Committee held a full hearing for "An Update on #Afghanistan."

Witnesses were ASD David Helvey (OSD) & BGen Matt Trollinger (Joint Staff). It was a *long* hearing. I'll post a summary in this THREAD. 1/n
(If you'd like to watch the whole thing, here's the link: armedservices.house.gov/2021/5/full-co…. Note that what follows aren't quotes, but my paraphrases of their comments). 2/n
Chairman Smith opening remarks: This hearing will focus on key questions, such as: What is the process for US withdrawal from #Afghanistan & what’s our strategy going forward? Also, what our lessons learned from the past 20 years? 3/n
Read 87 tweets
26 Apr
NEW RELEASE!

Very excited to post this report by my team @CNA_org from a congressionally-mandated study led by @Pamela_Faber on whether DOD policies & activities adequately account for the roles of #women & #gender in #terrorist groups.

cna.org/CNA_files/PDF/… 1/n
For the study, the team researched & ID'd the roles of women & gender in terrorist groups; assessed whether current DOD counterterrorism (CT) & countering violence extremism (CVE) strategy, policy, & activities incorporate gender considerations; ... 2/n
... and identified gaps, risks & opportunities for DOD in the areas of strategy/policy/doctrine, training & education, operations & programs, and conceptual understanding. 3/n
Read 11 tweets
25 Apr
The debate contained within these tweets is a critical one: the question of to what extent the #Taliban will try to seize Kabul by force—as opposed to using force in support of a political track—is one I see many people grappling with here. 1/n
My view is that the #Taliban will press the mil front in 2022 but in a calibrated way—ie, they won’t “empty the madrassas” in a Tet style offensive, but will likely cont surrounding & pressuring provincial capitals. If the opportunity presents to seize 1/more, they’ll take it 2/n
But they know they can’t win militarily so long as the AAF/Commandos are in tact & the #ANDSF doesn’t fracture—neither of which are likely to happen so long as US security assistance $$ continues at scale. I assess it will until at least 2024. 3/n
Read 8 tweets
16 Apr
I’ve been asked a number of times the past couple of days what I think of @joebiden’s announcement to withdraw all US troops from #Afghanistan by September. I haven’t had the time to write a proper op ed, so instead I’ll give you my thoughts in this THREAD. 1/n
My top-line take is this: What choice did @joebiden really have? If you examine his situation through the lenses of #Afghanistan, terrorism risk, credibility, domestic politics, & global US priorities, you’ll see the answer is “he had to do it.” 2/n
Let’s start w/#Afghanistan. Recognize first that the US isn’t in South Asia! We were always visiting, which means at some point, we would leave. Only Q has been when that would happen. That Q was answered in the US-#Taliban Agreement: We would leave by 1 May. 3/n
Read 22 tweets
14 Apr
Some key points of @JoeBiden's speech on #Afghanistan withdrawal in this THREAD. 1/n

- Only Afghans have the right & responsibility to lead their country
- War & endless US mil force could not create or sustain a durable Afghan govt
- We brought bin Laden to justice 10 yrs ago…our reasons for staying in #Afghanistan have since become increasingly unclear 2/n
- Terrorism threat has metastasized around the globe…makes little sense to keep thousands of troops in one place
- We can’t keep deploying troops to #Afghanistan hoping for the right conditions for withdrawal & expecting a different result 3/n
Read 15 tweets

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