Thread by @althecat

There was a second day of big rains over the horn today. In this image on the right hand side you can see the incoming water baring winds from across the Arabian Sea from the Indian Monsoon.

Today's #HornOfAfrica #NorthAfrica & #MiddleEast forecasts follow:

Here's a wider angle view. The water bearing mid-altitude jets provide much of the moisture that fuels the West African Monsoon, and its East African extension.

Three 10-day (+ one 12-day) accumulated rainfall forecasts for North Africa for June 15th from the GFS, CMC and KMA weather models.

A big picture view of the scene. We have more #ArabianStorm activity today after a quiet day yesterday. Meanwhile the flow of moisture east-south-east over the Mediterranean to the Levant continues.

Top left, a big, till now almost stationary low is beginning to move east.

Here's a view of the full Nile River watersheds down to Lake Victoria. Today there was a significant amount of convection north of the 15-Nth Line and more is expected tomorrow.

10-Day rainfall forecasts for June 15th of the #HornOfAfrica including, #Somalia, #Somaliland, #Djibouti, #Ethiopia and parts of #Sudan and #SouthSudan.

+ bonus 12-day forecast from KMA.

The forecast rains are looking strong now.

48 hour rainfall forecasts for June 15th of the #HornOfAfrica including #Somalia, #Somaliland, #Djibouti, #Ethiopia and parts of #Sudan and #SouthSudan.

As sunset approached three big storms sparked up over the Sudan desert. And they continued into the night. Some model rainfall forecasts currently show much the Sudan East of the Nile receiving rain.

And here you can also see most of today's #ArabianStorms.

From @Arab_Storms, here we see some runoff and rain today in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1404825571125645313?s=20

Also from the #KSA some more rainfall run-off, this time coming down a staircase.

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1404825095965745158?s=20

From the Sudan, some cattle being rescued from a flood.

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1404741080038346753?s=20

10-Day June 15th, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم

48 Hour June 15th (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم

And finally, June 15th 16-day (GFS) and 12-day (KMA) accumulated rainfall forecasts for the Middle East.

To close is a picture of Cyclone Bill racing towards New Foundland with an outrider. Many models expected bill him to fail to form or fizzle out, but he hasn't yet and is now expected to maintain cyclonic wind speeds after becoming extratropical and reaching Canadian waters.

None of which is particularly normal for cyclones in the Atlantic at any time of year. If Bill continues to maintain form as he did in earlier model runs, he could yet have a significant impact on European Weather.

As of now a big high is expected to nudge Bill into Canada over Newfoundland where he will merge with another low, one that then bounces back out and plays a role in a complex aerial water dance over Western Europe.

/ends

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