JP Kleinhans Profile picture
Jun 30, 2021 8 tweets 5 min read Read on X
Good news everybody!

To enrich your summer break John (@J_B_C16) and I wrote about #semiconductors and #China!

We analyzed the global semi value chain across three strategic dimensions: industry competitiveness, #NationalSecurity and #resilience

cc @snv_berlin @merics_eu /1 Image
First, we looked at the generic production steps - consisting of 3 process steps and 5 inputs.

For each we analyzed barriers to entry, market concentration, competitiveness of Chinese industry, Chinese policies, etc. Image
Based on that we then assessed each production step across 3 'strategic dimensions'.

Idea: What motivates a government to invest in/support its semi ecosystem or cooperate with allies?

Can we systematize that / come up with a framework for 'national interest'? Yes, we can! Image
How does this help? (you will have to read our 'Analytical Approach' section to fully understand, sorry.) 🧐

But here's an example how the 3 strategic dimensions interplay and how govts (in our case China, but it's applicable to any govt) can assess their national interest. Image
We then use that heat map / matrix to assess for each production step what this means for China specifically - in terms of the US-China #technology rivalry but also vis-à-vis #EU.
We furthermore provide on overview of China's #semiconductor policies, relevant ministries, funding instruments and guidance tools. Did I mention the annex that is packed with references to semiconductor-specific policy documents? Image
The best part: It's a 'modular' report so feel free (after reading the 'analytical approach'!) to dive into the section that interests you the most! 👌

And as always, it's all under CC-BY-SA.

You're welcome. 😉✌️

stiftung-nv.de/en/publication…
Hat tip to @merics_eu for a great collaboration, more to come in winter 2021.

Specifically to John (@J_B_C16) - it's a blast to work with him and if you don't follow him already, you are missing out!

That's it. Stay tuned. ✌️

stiftung-nv.de/en/publication…

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More from @JPKleinhans

Sep 1, 2022
OK, so we just finished our 3-paper series on the #EUChipsAct.

The 3. paper assesses the effectiveness of the proposed #Crisis Response Toolbox.

stiftung-nv.de/en/publication…

We see many, many problems. Here's why... 🧵

#semiconductors #chips #chipshortage #Europe Image
The proposal talks about utilizing common purchasing, export restrictions and priority-rated orders during future chip shortages to ensure security of supply for Europe.

We also added national reserves since several countries (Spain, Japan...) are thinking about those.
Let's walk through the value chain, shall we?

Chips:
None of the tools are effective when applied to individual chips because semiconductors are...
- highly customized/not substitutable
- end-products (cars...) need ~1000 chips from all over the world
Read 12 tweets
Dec 8, 2021
Good news everybody!

The excellent @J_B_C16 and I teamed up (again!) to analyze what #China's rise in #semiconductors means for #EU. It's not 60 pages and 300 references like the last one (sorry).

Reading this are 20min well spent, promise!

stiftung-nv.de/en/node/3187 Image
This is the second paper based on our (@snv_berlin) cooperation with @merics_eu to make a deep dive into #China's #semiconductor ecosystem. The first paper assessed China's competitiveness in #chips and can be found here. stiftung-nv.de/sites/default/… (it's a "long-read").
In today's paper we distilled several #policy recommendations for the #EU in great expectation of the upcoming #EUChipsAct, future conversations at the EU-US Trade and Technology Council (#TTC) and in light of EU's #IndoPacific strategy.
Read 4 tweets
Feb 5, 2020
Why don't we talk about the 𝗖𝗢𝗦𝗧𝗦 of replacing #Huawei gear in EU?

Both @BTGroup and @VodafoneGroup talked about it in their latest financial reports to investors.

theguardian.com/business/2020/…

Let's have a look... [THREAD]
The BT Group estimated in their latest financial statement that the UK's 5G requirements will have "an impact of around £500 million over the next 5 years."

btplc.com/Sharesandperfo…
This got widely reported without putting it in context. Let's put that "£500 million over 5 years" in context:

BT Group's Capital Expenditure per year (ONLY network investments):
2017 = £1650 million
2018 = £1728 million
2019 = £2083 million

btplc.com/Sharesandperfo…
Read 10 tweets
Jan 29, 2020
So, #EU #5G #toolbox is out.
ec.europa.eu/newsroom/dae/d…

IMHO, excellent work. Seriously.

What becomes crystal clear, though: 𝗡𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝘂𝘁𝗵𝗼𝗿𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗵𝗮𝘃𝗲 𝘁𝗼 𝘀𝘁𝗲𝗽 𝘂𝗽 𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗶𝗿 𝗴𝗮𝗺𝗲, 𝗔 𝗟𝗢𝗧. In the future they will have to... [Thread]
+ continuously assess the risk of deploying particular 5G network equipment and restrict/prohibit if necessary. (p20)

+ audit MNOs at an "in-depth technical level" (p20)

+ assess operators' sourcing strategy and the involvement of 3rd party suppliers (p20)
+ assess to what extent an operator implemented baseline technical network security measures (p20)

+ "perform rigorous assessments of the risk profile of all relevant suppliers at national level" (p21)

+ assess/restrict whether MNOs rely on Managed Service Providers (p21)
Read 7 tweets
Jan 14, 2020
There is a relatively new #5G report from @OxfordEconomics analyzing economic impact (losses) of banning #Huawei in different countries: resources.oxfordeconomics.com/hubfs/Huawei_5…
Their math might be right but several of their assumptions are flawed and ill-informed. [THREAD]
Assumption: RAN Market shares will remain the same over the next 10 YEARS. If Huawei is restricted, operators have to choose between Nokia or Ericsson since smaller vendors don't have "the same global reach or breadth of products and services [...] to successfully compete". p14
Why this is flawed: #5G is all about #virtualization virtualization, software defined radio (#SDR) networks. This creates a HUGE opportunity for new players to enter the market and the report completely ignores this development even though it's happening as we speak. Examples...
Read 10 tweets

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