Thread by @althecat

The big-rains season in Ethiopia is now underway, and today is the second day of #GERD filling. As it was yesterday, today's rains were strong over the #Abbay Catchment.

Today's rainfall forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica, #MiddleEast and #NorthAfrica follow.

This animation shows the storms as they began today, fueled by water baring winds from the Indian Monsoon.
Attached thread show's yesterday's forecast report.

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1410314194482872322?s=20

In the big picture today we can see yet another day of #ArabianStorms continuing the trend which began in April.

In Europe another big front is bearing down in the North Atlantic as two large storm systems continue to bring significant rains to West, Central & Eastern Europe.

Today's 10-Day Rainfall forecasts for North Africa from July 1st through July 10th.

[NOTE: The widespread rainfall in the CMC forecast for Yemen is a new feature and supported in the long-range GFS forecast.]

48-hour rainfall forecasts (today and tomorrow from the same four models: the Euro @ECMWF, U.S. @NOAA's GFS, Canada's CMC and Korea's KMA.

And finally, long-range 16-day (GFS) and 12-Day (KMA forecasts for the wider region. I have included a closeup from the long-range GFS forecast.

As far as I know rain this extensive in Oman and Yemen is pretty unusual.

In this animation we can see both the rains in #Ethiopia and the #ArabianStorms in Saudi Arabia and Yemen on the Red Sea Coast. We can also see cloud activity building over southern Egypt.

Today's July 1st 10-day rainfall forecasts (+1 12 day forecast from KMA) for #Ethiopia and the #HornOfAfrica including #Somalia, #Somaliland, eastern parts of #SouthSudan, south eastern parts of Sudan, #Djbouti and #Eritrea.

48 Hour forecasts (today and tomorrow) from the same three models. The official beginning of the big rainy season is now underway.

The longer-range forecasts now show significant rain over nearly all of #Ethiopia, and heavy rain in war-torn Tigray.

This image shows a closeup of today's #DesertRain and #ArabianStorms in Egypt, Sudan and Saudi Arabia.

10-Day July 1st, accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, ECMWF, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم

48 Hour July 1st (today and tomorrow), accumulated rain forecasts for the #MiddleEast from the GFS, CMC & KMA weather models.

#ArabianStorms

#KSA #Yemen #Oman #Jordan #Sudan #Iran #Syria #GERD #Sudan #DesertRain

الله أعلم

Eyewitness tweets from @Arab_Storms today of #ArabianStorms, the first from @SaudiArabia.

The first tweet today is a call to prayer for tomorrow Muslim holy day.

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1410654486297776130?s=20

@Arab_Storms @saudiarabia The second is from Switzerland and shows a super-cell thunderstorm shelf cloud worthy of Florida or Texas.

https://twitter.com/Arab_Storms/status/1410576437778599939?s=20

As always the final rainfall forecasts are long range July 1st, 16-day (GFS) and 12-day (KMA) accumulated rainfall forecasts for the Middle East.

This level of rainfall in Yemen is a first for the GFS model so far in the 2021 spring-summer.
الله أعلم

& a rounded picture of the hemisphere. Zero hour simulation data from the GFS.

1. Precipitable water PWAT anomaly
2. PWAT (potential rain + energy)
3. MLSP (Mean Sea Level Pressure)
4. 250Hpa (jet stream winds approx 11kms high)

Note the PWAT anomaly over Sudan.