Tragedy like the #LyttonFire is the very reason why we should talk about the impacts of #climatechange on these events and on #wildfires in Canada. A thread. 1/
2/
Obviously, #wildfires are strongly linked to #weather/#climate parameters. The warmer, the windier, the drier is the weather, the more fire ignition probabilities and spread
Obviously, #wildfires are strongly linked to #weather/#climate parameters. The warmer, the windier, the drier is the weather, the more fire ignition probabilities and spread
3/
#temperatures are increasing fast around the globe but way faster in Canada. 1.7C since 1948. Warming in especially important in the west, notably in spring and summer time
#temperatures are increasing fast around the globe but way faster in Canada. 1.7C since 1948. Warming in especially important in the west, notably in spring and summer time
4/
As a result, fire seasons are getting longer (1979-2015) while spread days and extreme fire-weather are increasing but not everywhere (1979-2002)
Jain et al. (2017) IJWF
As a result, fire seasons are getting longer (1979-2015) while spread days and extreme fire-weather are increasing but not everywhere (1979-2002)
Jain et al. (2017) IJWF
5/
Since 1970, area burned by wildfires have increased by 330 000 ha per decade. Some regions, notably central and western Canada, experienced big increases.
The number of fire though is stable or decreasing
Hanes et al. 2019. CJFR
Since 1970, area burned by wildfires have increased by 330 000 ha per decade. Some regions, notably central and western Canada, experienced big increases.
The number of fire though is stable or decreasing
Hanes et al. 2019. CJFR
6/
According to Hanes et al., lightning-caused #wildfires are increasing. Also, large fires are increasing.
According to Hanes et al., lightning-caused #wildfires are increasing. Also, large fires are increasing.
7/
It has been demonstrated that the observed increase in area burned in Canada is strongly linked to the increase in temperatures
Gillett et al. 2004
It has been demonstrated that the observed increase in area burned in Canada is strongly linked to the increase in temperatures
Gillett et al. 2004
8/
In 2017, #BCWildfire broke is all-time record of annual area burned. 1.2 Mha. Previous record was in 1958 with ... 0.855Mha.
45k people were evacuated.
Kamloops recorded 387h (18% of the summer) with smoky skies, a record (previous: 81h).
Costs for fire suppression: 519M$
In 2017, #BCWildfire broke is all-time record of annual area burned. 1.2 Mha. Previous record was in 1958 with ... 0.855Mha.
45k people were evacuated.
Kamloops recorded 387h (18% of the summer) with smoky skies, a record (previous: 81h).
Costs for fire suppression: 519M$
9/
Kirchmeyer-Young et al. (2017) has shown that the 2017 fire season in BC was ~90% attributable to climate change. Without climate change, such event would have taken place once every 10000 years. With climate change, once every 100 years
Kirchmeyer-Young et al. (2017) has shown that the 2017 fire season in BC was ~90% attributable to climate change. Without climate change, such event would have taken place once every 10000 years. With climate change, once every 100 years
10/
In May 2016, a severe #wildfire struck in #FortMcMurray, #Alberta.
2400 homes were destroyed
Costs: 3.58B$ in insured damages, 9.9B$ of total damages which made this fire the largest #insurance claim from #naturaldisaster in Canada’s history
In May 2016, a severe #wildfire struck in #FortMcMurray, #Alberta.
2400 homes were destroyed
Costs: 3.58B$ in insured damages, 9.9B$ of total damages which made this fire the largest #insurance claim from #naturaldisaster in Canada’s history
11/
Again, it was demonstrated that this kind of fire that burned 600 000 ha was 1.5 to 6 times more likely under #climatechange
Kirchmeyer-Young et al. 2017b
Again, it was demonstrated that this kind of fire that burned 600 000 ha was 1.5 to 6 times more likely under #climatechange
Kirchmeyer-Young et al. 2017b
12/
Impacts are huge. Since 1970, #firesuppression costs have increased by 120M$ (2009 dollars) per decade in Canada
Hopes et al. 2016
Impacts are huge. Since 1970, #firesuppression costs have increased by 120M$ (2009 dollars) per decade in Canada
Hopes et al. 2016
13/
Looking at the future now...
Canada will get MUCH warmer. MAT could increase by as much as 8C by 2100 (wrt 2000). Precipitation might increase a bit but that won't compensate for temperature increases. As a result, climate will be much DRIER.
Looking at the future now...
Canada will get MUCH warmer. MAT could increase by as much as 8C by 2100 (wrt 2000). Precipitation might increase a bit but that won't compensate for temperature increases. As a result, climate will be much DRIER.
14/
With all these changes in climate regime, #wildfire season will get longer. By up to a month and a half longer by 2100 in some places.
With all these changes in climate regime, #wildfire season will get longer. By up to a month and a half longer by 2100 in some places.
15/
Increased wildfire season length and increased in fire-conducive weather will make #areaburned explode.
By two- to four-fold on average by 2100
Increased wildfire season length and increased in fire-conducive weather will make #areaburned explode.
By two- to four-fold on average by 2100
16/
Impacts on humans will be significant.
Here is the current Canadian communities exposure to #wildfires
Impacts on humans will be significant.
Here is the current Canadian communities exposure to #wildfires
17/
From these maps, it's already clear that #FirstNations are overrepresented in high-exposure zones
Erni et al. 2021
From these maps, it's already clear that #FirstNations are overrepresented in high-exposure zones
Erni et al. 2021
18/
Populations exposed to very short fire intervals will increase. This increase will be even higher for #FirstNations
Populations exposed to very short fire intervals will increase. This increase will be even higher for #FirstNations
19/
Few days ago, colleagues @mikeflannigan, Piyush Jain, Aseem Sharma and @climate_guy published an analysis of the recent June #heatwave in BC: canadawildfire.org/heatwave
As noted from them:
Few days ago, colleagues @mikeflannigan, Piyush Jain, Aseem Sharma and @climate_guy published an analysis of the recent June #heatwave in BC: canadawildfire.org/heatwave
As noted from them:
20/ "Compared to all June heatwaves [from] the last 42 yrs (1979-2020), the 2021 June heatwave is 35% larger, 36% more intense. [...]Compared to the average climatology of all fire season heatwaves of the same period, the June heatwave of 2021 is 31% larger and 32% more intense"
21/
They also noted that:
"The intensity of the current #heatwave is extremely rare for western North America, being the largest observed event in June in the last 42 years. Such an event is estimated to occur only once in over 1000 years during June"
They also noted that:
"The intensity of the current #heatwave is extremely rare for western North America, being the largest observed event in June in the last 42 years. Such an event is estimated to occur only once in over 1000 years during June"
22/
And:
"Historically, [...] heatwave event [...] increases the likelihood of wildfire occurrence by a factor of 7. [...] the probability of wildfire occurrence during or immediately after the June 2021 heatwave increased further by 34% when compared with previous heatwaves"
And:
"Historically, [...] heatwave event [...] increases the likelihood of wildfire occurrence by a factor of 7. [...] the probability of wildfire occurrence during or immediately after the June 2021 heatwave increased further by 34% when compared with previous heatwaves"
23/
The end word is: Be prepared and adapt! Such tragedy might occur again. It might be even much worse.
Solutions exist.
The end word is: Be prepared and adapt! Such tragedy might occur again. It might be even much worse.
Solutions exist.
27/
Because, colleagues have demonstrated that many communities in Canada were in "fire deficit" and were thus over-exposed to fire wrt their region.
Parisien et al. 2020.
Because, colleagues have demonstrated that many communities in Canada were in "fire deficit" and were thus over-exposed to fire wrt their region.
Parisien et al. 2020.
28/end...
Spread this information! The more we know, the more we can act.
Spread this information! The more we know, the more we can act.
BTW, this record was beaten the year after with 1.35Mha...
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