Thread by @yboulanger2

Hey #weather research scientists! We are looking for your expertise! Are you interested in wind/temp profile at night? Are you using or wishing to use doppler on wheel? We could have something to propose to you! #severeweather #aeroecology #DOW 1/n

I'm a research scientist in #forest #ecology at the @cflscf (@NRCan). With a high-expertise team, we are looking at the dispersal patterns of the most important pests in eastern North American conifer forests: the #sprucebudworm. 2/

@cflscf @NRCan #Sprucebudworm #outbreaks occur every ca 30-40 years and can last 5 to 15 years. The last major outbreak (1969-92) covered 55 M ha (yes MILLIONS !) and resulted in tremendous losses in the forest sector. (below: area defoliated in 1975). 3/

@cflscf @NRCan This bugs is one of the most studied forest insect in North America. Nevertheless, we know very little about its dispersal. And when they disperse, they do it in large numbers.... 4/

@cflscf @NRCan They are so numerous, we can easily "see" them on #doppler radar climate.weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.…

@cflscf @NRCan Looks like these bugs can travel very far (up to 200 km) during a given night fs.fed.us/nrs/pubs/jrnl/… 6/

@cflscf @NRCan Currently, 8 Mha are defoliated by #sprucebudworm in eastern Canada. The outbreak is progressing and we fear that dispersing individual will reach intact forests in #NewBrunswick and #Maine 7/

@cflscf @NRCan Mass dispersal flight can occur almost every night during the flight season, mainly in July. 8/

@cflscf @NRCan Recent findings from studies conducted within CFS indicated that promising results might be obtain if an aggressive early intervention strategy (EIS) was to be deployed over areas where SBW populations begin to increase 9/

@cflscf @NRCan Such a strategy requires a better understanding of the migratory behaviour of SBW moths with the ultimate objective being to develop a tool to accurately predict landing areas of immigrant females as a warning signal for EIS. 10/

@cflscf @NRCan It is generally acknowledged that most migrants are mated female carrying only a small (< 50%) portion of their original egg complement. These assumptions are based on ground sampling with scattered information on morphometry and egg load of migrant females. 11/

@cflscf @NRCan There is a need to specifically collect migrants in order to properly assess the SBW migrating behaviour and its impact on outbreak spread. 12/

@cflscf @NRCan Thorough specific sampling of migrants can be done using helikite-towed nets. This technique allows for the collecting of migrating SBW by means of a windsock-shaped net fixed to the helikite at a 200 – 800 m of altitude. 13/ cbc.ca/news/canada/ne…

https://twitter.com/yboulanger2/status/1155679886863978497

@cflscf @NRCan This sampling proved to be very efficient... 14/

https://twitter.com/yboulanger2/status/1156832853616996352

@cflscf @NRCan Colleagues at CFS have developed a SBW atmospheric transport model (SBW-ATM) based on aerobiological principles to examine the exodus flight patterns of SBW. 15/

@cflscf @NRCan This model is agent-based, where each agent is an insect or group of insects with the same flight characteristics, assigned behavioral parameters based on probability distribution functions corresponding to the timing of liftoff, relative flight strength, and descent. 16/

@cflscf @NRCan Several weather-related parameters from the lower troposphere are needed in order to model bug's orientation, speed, altitude and so on. 17/

@cflscf @NRCan First attempts to overlay weather radar images with outputs from the SBW-ATM as it is currently parameterized suggest that the model performs relatively well although many improvements might be considered. Radar animation for July 20th 2018 below: 18/

@cflscf @NRCan SBW-ATM for the same date below : 19/

@cflscf @NRCan We now need to better understand the 3D structure of these mass flights and their interaction with weather to better calibrate the model. 20/

@cflscf @NRCan That's why we wish to use #DopplerOnWheel like this to better characterize those flights! (c) cswr.org

@cflscf @NRCan We thought we could kill two budworm with one stone by collaborating with #weather research scientists interested to study the atmospheric layers in which #budworms are dispersing by using these DOW. 22/

@cflscf @NRCan We are currently looking at wrapping fundings for that endeavour. Plenty of possibilities! So who's in?? 23/ end #RADAR #Weather #wxradar

@cflscf @NRCan @threadreaderapp unroll